Roman History Holds Lessons for March Madness Bracketeers

Much has been written about this year's NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament field.  From complaints about where teams were seeded to which teams did and didn't deserve to make it in, mid-March always seems to provoke the same slew of concerns from the sports fan and journalist community.

What is often overlooked, however, is how close this season of March Madness falls in relation to one particularly infamous day...

The Ides of March.

Some of you may be wondering, "What's he talking about?"

To quickly recap, it was on March 15th, 44 BCE that the great Julius Caesar, self-proclaimed "ruler for life" of the Republic of Rome, was assassinated by Brutus, one of his closest proteges.  It was after this tragic event that Caesar's nephew and successor, Octavian, rose to power and later became the first emperor of what became the Roman Empire.

So what does all of this historical mumbo-jumbo have to do with 65 teams and 64 games in 3 weeks?

Well, every tournament field has its fair share of Caesars, Brutuses, and Octavians. 

Caesars are those powerhouse teams with high seeds and rosters stocked with talent that, well, are bound to fall short of expectations. Brutuses are similar to traditional "Cinderella" teams, as these are the teams that have the potential to pull an upset or two, perhaps even to knock off a Caesar.  And finally, Octavians are teams that have the potential to rise to power and make a deep tournament run, perhaps even to championship glory.

So, without further ado, I present my picks for each:

Julius Caesars

I hate to be cliche, but any discussion of top teams getting knocked out early has to start with the Duke Blue Devils.  As usual, Coach K brings into the tournament a team of skilled players who know how to execute on offense and apply pressure on defense. 

However, as is also the usual case, Duke isn't exactly the most athletic team and, hence, is susceptible to fall to a squad with high-flying potential.  As open as the Blue Devils' part of the bracket may appear, I anticipate them falling early, perhaps as soon as the second round to Rick Pitino's Louisville Cardinals in a battle of high-profile coaches.

Continuing with the theme of top seeds that should be watching their backs, the Syracuse Orange is another team "ripe" for an upset.  They certainly have a capable and talented group of players, led by surefire NBA lottery pick Wesley Johnson.

If center Arinze Onuaku has to sit out for more than one game, or if he comes back but isn't effective, that vaunted 2-3 zone that Coach Jim Boeheim employs could be weakened considerably. 

And though I don't anticipate Syracuse being the first ever men's number one seed to lose to a 16-seed, I wouldn't necessarily disregard that possibility, as the Orange's first-round opponent—the Vermont Catamounts—has been there before, having upset Syracuse in the tournament back in 2005.

What collection of college basketball powers bound to fall early this year would be complete without including the Kentucky Wildcats.  In some ways, this might be the easiest upset pick of them all, as John Calipari's squad, though absolutely loaded from top to bottom with premium talent, is led by two freshmen—likely 2010 NBA Draft number one overall pick John Wall and the enigmatic DeMarcus Cousins—who, though obviously gifted far beyond what their years would suggest, lack the previous experience that is so often necessary to make any sort of a run, much less win the whole thing. 

Some foresee this Kentucky team having success comparable to that achieved by the 2003 Syracuse squad that won the national championship, thanks to the outstanding play of the freshmen duo of Carmelo Anthony and Gerry McNamara.  I, on the other hand, anticipate a much earlier exit for Wall and company.

Brutuses

Texas started off the season 17-0, but struggled in conference, finishing with a 9-7 record in the Big 12 and earning an eight seed. 

Nevertheless, their blend of young talent (freshmen Avery Bradley, J'Covan Brown, and Jordan Hamilton) and tournament experience (Dameon James, Dexter Pittman, and Gary Johnson) makes the Longhorns a good candidate to upset some squads, starting with Kentucky in the second round.

Speaking of teams that underperformed this season, the Washington Huskies were picked by some to be a top-10 team preseason, but stumbled through their conference schedule (as did most of the teams in their conference). 

Nonetheless, Lorenzo Romar's bunch fought their way into the Big Dance by winning their conference tournament title.  Led by the likes of senior forward Quincy Pondexter and the pesky Isaiah Washington, U-Dub has the talent as an 11-seed to make some noise in the coming weeks.

Perhaps the team with the greatest upset AND deep run potential is Notre Dame.  Ever since Luke Harangody went down and Coach Mike Brey switched his team to a more deliberate offensive style, the Fighting Irish have been one of the hottest teams in the country.  With their preseason All-American back in the fray and their backcourt of Tory Jackson and Ben Hansbrough at the helm, Notre Dame looks primed to slay a few giants and perhaps even make a run to the Final Four.

Octavians

When it comes to solid picks, no team is more primed to take home the title than overall-number one seed Kansas. 

After surprising many by winning the Big 12 in a "down year" last year, the Jayhawks returned this year with expectations, especially after returning All-Americans Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich.  Add freshmen phenom Xavier Henry to a mix of tournament tested vets like the aforementioned Collins and Aldrich along with the Morris twins and the slashing Tyshawn Taylor and you've got yourself a team that should help Coach Bill Self conquer the college basketball world once again.

Aside from the odds-on favorite, West Virginia looks like another promising pick to make a deep run this March. 

Coach Bob Huggins has certainly been there plenty of times before, and this time his Mountaineers have the weapons to take "Huggy Bear" back to the pinnacle of the sport.  Led by the trio of Da'Sean Butler, Kevin Jones, and Devin Ebanks, look for West Virginia to continue the Big East's recent run of roundball royalty.

Not to overstate the excellence of the Big East, but Pittsburgh has the potential to solidify the 16-team mega-conference as the best in the land. 

Coach Jamie Dixon's team has come on strong as the season has gone on, and though the Panthers haven't made it to the final weekend since their resurgence stemming from the Ben Howland era, this could finally be the year.  Keep an eye on Jermaine Dixon and Ashton Gibbs, who combine to form one of the best back-courts in the tournament field.

Of course, any March Madness prognostication is far from exact science.  I would expect nothing less than my very own bracket being busted sooner rather than later, but such is part of the fun of the whole tournament experience.

If there's anything to be learned from history when trying to predict what will happen in this year's Big Dance, it can be summed up rather succinctly in the words of the seer as written by William Shakespeare.

"Beware the Ides of March."