2010 NCAA Tournament: My March Madness Picks

Let me start by being blunt: I don't watch enough college basketball during the regular season to really know my stuff.

However, I do know and follow some basic rules that increase my chances of success incrementally, but also insignificantly on an individual basis:

1. Pick at least one 12-seeded in the first round. Only twice since going to a 64-team format has there not been at least one of these teams advance.

2. Make sure you have an upset in every round until the Elite Eight, and one in every bracket until the Sweet 16 is set. But always pick more favourites than upsets in each bracket/round.

3. Pick teams that play in tough conferences. The ACC, Big East, and (with a huge exception a couple years ago) the Big Ten fare better than .500 in the tourney.

4. Pick teams that have been there before, especially with coaches that have.

5. Look for upsets based on guard play. It is a fallacy that the teams with the best guards win the most games, but that is the position that is most likely to produce upsets.

6. Don't pick teams to produce multiple upsets. An eighth seed may upset a top seed, but they probably do not make the Final Four; almost all Final Four teams are first through fourth seeds.

7. Don't second-guess yourself unless there is a personal bias. I go with my first instinct unless it relates to Marquette and Wisconsin, or I recognize I have not picked enough or have picked too many enough upsets.

8. Don't make any of these rules hard and fast, not even this one: There may be times to follow all, and times to make exceptions, so be flexible.

Given that, here were my official upset winners in the first round:

—Ninth seeds Northern Iowa and Wake Forest

—Tenth seeded Florida, St. Mary's, and Georgia Tech (this is too many: I probably should drop my local St. Mary's team)

—Twelfth seeded Utah State (probably should have picked one more, but none jump out at me, so I won't force one)

Below is my Sweet 16, numbered in order based on how deep they go. In other words, the first team is the national champion, the top four are the Final Four, the top eight are the winners of the third round:

1. West Virginia

2. Georgetown

3. Villanova

4. Syracuse

5. Kentucky

6. Michigan State

7. Duke

8. Kansas State

9. New Mexico

10. Ohio State

11. Notre Dame

12. Butler

13. Wisconsin

14. Purdue

15. Kansas

16. Pittsburgh

Based on my previous years, I probably will go about 39-24 on these picks, a .619 winning percentage. I should have at least two teams in the Final Four and one in the national championship game.

I wouldn't win many pools, but I'd be in most past Easter Sunday.