North Carolina's Season May Be Over, but Are Their Struggles?

After losing to Georgia Tech in the first round of the ACC tournament in Greensboro, N.C., the Tar Heels season might be over.

At 16-16, the NIT isn't totally out of the question, but it's not exactly a guarantee.

Regardless, this Tar Heel season is one that the fans, coaches, and players undoubtedly want to be over.

Selected as the No. 4 team in the nation in preseason rankings—and picked to finish the ACC season tied with Duke for first place in the conference—the Tar Heels' young squad collapsed at the start of 2010 amidst injuries, disappointing play from seniors, and major backcourt inconsistencies.

The biggest question for Roy Williams' team now is not whether or not the NIT will come knocking—but instead, whether or not the Tar Heels can right the ship next season.

A quick look at its incoming recruiting class would suggest that next year's Tar Heel team will get a big boost.

The Tar Heels bring in talented backcourt players Kendall Marshall and Reggie Bullock—the No. 5-ranked point guard and No. 2-ranked shooting guard in their class, respectively, according to Scout.com)—along with Harrison Barnes, who many consider to be the top player in the 2010 class.

Logic would argue that these blue-chip recruits will make a big difference in Chapel Hill next year—but logic went out the window when this season's five freshmen, ranked as the second-best recruiting class in the nation, combined to average just 20.7 points per game.

Many analysts thought freshman John Henson, who was considered one of the top five freshmen in the nation and a guaranteed lottery pick coming into the season, would average close to that mark on his own.

If this season has taught us anything, it's that freshmen often play like freshmen—and it takes time for most, even the best, to adjust to the college game.

This season's Tar Heel freshmen had big shoes to fill.

Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, and Tyler Hansbrough—who, ironically, averaged the exact number of points last season by himself as all five of the Tar Heels' touted freshmen combined—left a 66.2-point hole to fill when they left Chapel Hill as NCAA champions.

The Heels struggled to put the ball in the basket without their former stars, experiencing close to a 15 points-per-game reduction from last year.

Although North Carolina isn't losing a Hansbrough or a Lawson after this season, it could still be losing a lot.

Deon Thompson, the team's leading scorer and second-leading rebounder, will graduate—along with Marcus Ginyard, the team's best perimeter defender.

Ed Davis, the Heels' second-leading scorer (he and Deon Thompson are the only North Carolina players to average double figures in scoring this year) and leading rebounder, could also be done in Chapel Hill.

His draft stock may have fallen since his injury, but he's still a likely first-round pick—and it's not unprecedented for a player of his caliber to leave after a frustrating season despite not playing up to expectations.

There have been rumors that Larry Drew II will transfer after the season is over.  

Drew has denied those rumors, but a backcourt transfer wouldn't be a surprise for North Carolina during its offseason.

With Will Graves, Leslie McDonald, Dexter Strickland, Marshall, Bullock, and Drew all fighting for playing time in the backcourt next year, someone's minutes will have to drop. It's definitely conceivable that one of the older guards could opt to leave for a school where playing time will be easier to come by.

Then there's Henson.

He was expected to be a one-and-done by most, but he was barely able to crack the rotation before February.  Since Davis has been injured, Henson has shown flashes of his potential. He was the only Tar Heel player to score in double figures against Duke in Cameron Indoor, and his shot-blocking ability is something special.

There's no doubt he could get drafted in the first round based on his upside.  The question is whether or not he'll entertain the thought.

Not long ago, he made a comment about missing the upperclassmen in the locker room next season—seemingly guaranteeing a return next year.  But if Henson decides even to test the waters with the NBA this year, Tar Heel fans will have reason for concern.

If North Carolina loses Davis and Henson to the NBA and one of its guards transfers, next season won't be pretty in Chapel Hill.  The Tar Heels will rely almost completely on freshmen and sophomore players with little experience winning in the ACC.

Now, that's obviously a worst-case scenario.  Henson is probably coming back—and it's impossible to predict transfers from outside of a program.

If Davis and Henson return, the Tar Heels will have a very promising lineup—considering what they will return and who they bring in.

Davis' return is certainly key for next year's season.  The Tar Heels don't bring in any frontcourt players next year, meaning that their only options in the paint next season would be Tyler Zeller and the Wear twins.  While serviceable, that lineup would see the Heels' only strength this season—frontcourt offense—become a weakness next year.

The Tar Heels face a myriad of unanswered questions heading into their offseason.

Who will stay?  Who will go?  Will anyone transfer?  Will the incoming freshmen be enough? This year's weren't.

Speculation about next season will likely run wild in the coming months in Chapel Hill.

Only one thing is for certain about next year's Tar Heel squad—the expectations will certainly be lower.

Much lower.