Super Bowl XLIV Preview: Saints Colts

New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts

Bodog Odds: Colts -6

Last week’s initial Super Bowl odds have surprisingly held steady in the first 60 hours since the Indianapolis Colts revealed (on Sunday) that defensive end Dwight Freeney had a third-degree low ankle sprain, which means a complete tear of the ligament in his right ankle. One would have expected the Colts – six-point favorites over the New Orleans Saints – to become a less convincing favorite, but that hasn’t yet happened. Let’s look at how this final installment of NFL betting picks shapes up.

What the Saints need to do to win

Play their very best game on offense. Yeah, one could say New Orleans will have to contain Peyton Manning, but the likelihood of that happening is low to nonexistent. This contest figures to be a shootout, especially now that Freeney – the best defensive player on the whole field – has been damaged. The Saints – equipped with a flotilla of fleet-footed flankers and other weapons coming out of the backfield – must simply throw a bunch of haymakers on the offensive side of the ball and force the Colts to land even more punches.

Drew Brees and the rest of the Saints were thoroughly contained for most of the NFC Championship Game against the Minnesota Vikings, particularly in the second half. An offense that stayed ahead of the NFC for most of the season got punished in the trenches by the physically superior Vikes. Limited to just 257 yards, the Saints struggled against Minnesota because their receivers generally couldn’t shake free from the Vikings’ corners. On the few occasions when Brees had an open man downfield, he normally air-mailed the pigskin and showed a little too much adrenaline. The only reason New Orleans scored 31 points was that the Saints started two second-half touchdown drives at the Minnesota 37 and (on another drive) the 7-yard line as well. Assuming that Manning doesn’t give the Saints a number of gift turnovers, Brees and teammate Reggie Bush will have to operate at the very height of their powers.

What the Colts need to do to win

Get first-rate cornerback play.

Dwight Freeney’s health is a huge worry for this team, but if there’s another major reason for the Colts to be nervous heading into Super Bowl XLIV, it’s the experience level of Indy’s cover corners. Jacob Lacey, a rookie from Oklahoma State, got toasted in the AFC Championship Game by New York Jets receiver Braylon Edwards. Indianapolis continuously surrendered big plays because its back line of defense got sucked toward the line of scrimmage by New York’s play fakes and disguised looks. Only when Peyton Manning gave the Colts a 10-point lead (27-17), thereby forcing the Jets to throw midway through the second half, did Indy manage to contain New York’s not-very-explosive offense. New Orleans’ offense, on the other hand, is truly scary. A wounded Freeney plus young corners should cause a little uneasiness in the Colts’ camp.

Indianapolis has an offense that should not be a source of concern. Manning is a thoroughly prepared on-field coach, as close as anything pro football has ever seen to a coordinator in a helmet and pads. It’s on defense where Super Bowl XLIV will be won or lost for the AFC champs. As long as Lacey and the rest of the back line don’t get burned deep, it will be hard to see how the NFC champions can outscore Manning.

Sportsbook Outlook & Pick

Indianapolis should still win this game with Peyton Manning, but the loss of Dwight Freeney certainly helps New Orleans to attack the Colts’ defense. Perhaps the spread is staying at six points because the Saints’ defense looked pedestrian against Minnesota, and because Manning is playing at such a high level. Those are good reasons to stick with the Colts. Nevertheless, it’s not an exaggeration to say that Freeney’s drastically reduced effectiveness will matter a great deal in this game. Indianapolis will need to generate a first-rate pass rush, and with Freeney being limited, New Orleans can double-team Robert Mathis and force the Colts to blitz. This will enable Drew Brees to make hot reads and involve Reggie Bush as a pass catcher coming out of the backfield. Before the Freeney injury, the Colts were a great bet giving six points. Now, there’s a good chance that the Saints might score that extra garbage touchdown needed to make this game 41-38, Indianapolis, instead of 41-31.

Bodog Reviews Picks: Saints +6