The Declining Value of the Fantasy Football Running Back

Fantasy Football is not an endeavor that someone becomes instantly successful.  It takes a lot of years of following statistics, drafting players, and playing match ups to become successful. 

However, the one rule that everyone learns their first year is that your first pick should be a running back, and so should your second pick. Running backs are king in fantasy football and it is widely accepted that you have to draft those players right away to be successful.

There is no doubt that running back is still the most important position on any fantasy roster. A great running back will carry the ball 300 plus times. 

Clinton Portis led the NFL in 2007 with 325 carries. Wes Welker and T.J. Houshmandzadeh led the NFL with 112 receptions.  When you combine that with the fact that running backs catch a lot of receptions compared to wide receivers logging rushing attempts and it becomes crystal clear that fantasy running backs have the most opportunities to score.  The problem is that the fantasy running back’s numbers have been declining in recent years, yet a lot of people’s advice has not changed to adjust to that trend.  The charts that follow list the top 10 rushers in the NFL the last five seasons, along with their touchdowns.    

Rank	Player	Rushing Yards	Rushing TDs
1	Jamal Lewis	2,066	14*
2	Ahman Green	1,883	15*
3	LaDainian Tomlinson	1,645	13*
4	Deuce McAllister	1,641	8
5	Clinton Portis	1,591	14*
6	Fred Taylor	1,572	6
7	Stephen Davis	1,444	8
8	Shaun Alexander	1,435	14*
9	Priest Holmes	1,420	27*
10	Ricky Williams	1,372	9

*Top 10 in rushing TDs

Rank	Player	Rushing Yards	Rushing TDs
1	Curtis Martin	1,697	12*
2	Shaun Alexander	1,696	16*
3	Corey Dillon	1,635	12*
4	Edgerrin James	1,548	9
5	Tiki Barber	1,518	13*
6	Rudi Johnson	1,454	12*
7	LaDainian Tomlinson	1,335	17*
8	Clinton Portis	1,315	5
9	Reuben Droughns	1,240	6
10	Fred Taylor	1,224	2

*Top 10 in rushing TDs

Rank	Player	Rushing Yards	Rushing TDs
1	Shaun Alexander	1,880	27*
2	Tiki Barber	1,860	9*
3	Larry Johnson	1,750	20*
4	Clinton Portis	1,516	11*
5	Edgerrin James	1,506	13*
6	LaDainian Tomlinson	1,462	18*
7	Rudi Johnson	1,458	12*
8	Warrick Dunn	1,416	3
9	Thomas Jones	1,335	9*
10	Willis McGahee	1,247	5

*Top 10 in rushing TDs

Rank	Player	Rushing Yards	Rushing TDs
1	LaDainian Tomlinson	1,815	28*
2	Larry Johnson	1,789	17*
3	Frank Gore	1,695	8
4	Tiki Barber	1,662	5
5	Steven Jackson	1,528	13*
6	Willie Parker	1,494	13*
7	Rudi Johnson	1,309	12*
8	Brian Westbrook	1,217	7
9	Chester Taylor	1,216	6
10	Travis Henry	1,211	7

*Top 10 in rushing TDs

Rank	Player	Rushing Yards	Rushing TDs
1	LaDainian Tomlinson	1,474	15*
2	Adrian Peterson	1,341	12*
3	Brian Westbrook	1,333	7
4	Willie Parker	1,316	2
5	Jamal Lewis	1,304	9
6	Clinton Portis	1,262	11*
7	Edgerrin James	1,222	7
8	Willis McGahee	1,207	7
9	Fred Taylor	1,202	5
10	Thomas Jones	1,119	1

*Top 10 in rushing TDs

Here is what those numbers show:

1. A great class of running backs

Let’s face it; the NFL was blessed with greatness at the running back spot from 1999 to 2005.  These are the players with over 10,000 career rushing yards.  The number following their name is where their career-rushing total ranks in NFL history.  Curtis Martin (4), Jerome Bettis (5), Marshal Faulk (9), Edgerrin James (13), Corey Dillon (15), Fred Taylor (17), LaDainian Tomlinson (18), Tiki Barber (20), Eddie George (21), and Warrick Dunn (23).  That means that 10 of the 23 players in the history of the NFL that have obtained 10,000 career-rushing yards had their prime years between 1999 and 2005.  Most of these guys are either retired or no longer productive.  Taylor, Tomlinson, and Dunn are the only active players with 10,000 yards rushing entering the season.  Only Tomlinson is a first round fantasy pick.    That doesn’t even include guys like Shaun Alexander, Stephen Davis, Ahman Green, Priest Holmes, Jamal Lewis, Larry Johnson, Clinton Portis, who have between 7,500 and 9,999 yards.  All have been productive touchdown scorers.  All besides Davis have been first round picks in recent years.  The NFL Hall of Fame election committee is going to have a huge challenge.  There is no way that you can put in 17 running backs from the same era in the Hall of Fame.  Yet, historically these players are going to rank extremely high in terms of all-time rankings.  What is going to be the standard for induction?    That isn’t an issue we are worried about in fantasy football.  Regardless of who eventually gets into the Hall of Fame, the problem is that none of these guys are young anymore. 

The only ones on this list that will be under 30-years old when the season starts are Tomlinson (29), Lewis (29), Johnson (28), and Portis (26).  30-years old is an important number in fantasy football, because most running backs will suffer a major decline when they reach that age.  That means the NFL has some huge shoes to fill.  Some teams are drafting replacements.  Joseph Addai, Reggie Bush, Adrian Peterson, and Darren McFadden are the next generation of potential Hall of Fame running backs.  With so many established backs being phased out of the NFL, and a lot of young unproven guys getting their first shot, there is going to be a few years where rushing numbers aren’t what we are used to expecting. 

Whether that lasts for another year, or two to three years is anyone’s guess.  Regardless, as of today the running back position is not as strong today as it was a few years ago.  That is one reason that teams are shifting toward the two-back philosophy.         

2. The move toward specialization

If you look at these guys they were all featured running backs that saw 20-25 carries per game.  That just isn’t happening as much.  If you look at 2003, 2004, and 2005 66 percent of the time the top 10 rusher also was in the top 10 in rushing touchdowns.  In 2005 that number was eight of the 10 backs.  In 2006 that dropped to five backs.  Last year it was down to three backs.  Ask yourself, which backs are the exclusively featured backs in their offense?  LT, LJ, Steven Jackson, Brian Westbrook, and Joseph Addai come to mind.  But then look at how many backs are splitting time. Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor split carries.  Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew split time. Those teams, Jacksonville and Minnesota, finished first and second in rushing yards. 

Denver uses a number of different backs depending on Shanahan’s mood.  The Patriots alternate backs.  The Giants use a running back by committee approach.  Even though Marion Barber made the Pro Bowl and got rid of Julius Jones, they used their first round pick on Felix Jones. 

There just aren’t a lot of guys that play near the red zone, at the goal line, and on third down.  Teams have backs that specialize in each role.  Think of it similar to starting pitchers in Major League Baseball.  They used to throw every third day and pitch a complete game.  As teams realized they were wearing out their most important commodity they started to emphasize the bullpen. 

That is what happened in the NFL.  With running backs having such a short shelf life teams are trying to protect that asset.  The other factor was that the Steelers were so successful using Parker in the red zone and riding “The Bus” the rest of the way for the touchdown in 2005.  Teams are realizing that they can be more effective using different backs for different situations.  The problem that creates is that you get guys like Fred Taylor that gain a lot of yards, but give way to Jones-Drew in the endzone.  Julius Jones rarely saw pay dirt, because Barber saw those carries.  Marion Barber, Earnest Graham, Ryan Grant, Maurice Jones-Drew were all in the top 10 in rushing yards, but failed to reach the 1,000-yard barrier.  That was unheard of five years ago.  

That creates a problem for fantasy owners because, a) you have to really watch match ups, because you can’t depend on volume players that are must starts and put up solid numbers based on their large amount of touches. And b) you don’t get a lot of separation between the yardage guys and the guys that score touchdowns.  A prime example of that is Marion Barber vs. Willie Parker.  Barber only had one game last season with over 20 carries and only three games where he topped 100 yards.  He was the backup.  But his 12 touchdowns made him an attractive play and he made the Pro Bowl.  Using a standard Yahoo scoring system he tallied about 200 points. 

Parker had eight games in 15 starts where he tallied 100-plus yards, but he only scored two touchdowns.   It was a draw most weeks as to who was the better player, with Barber getting the nod for the season, because of his high touchdown totals and health at the end of the season.  As I see it you have seven running backs that are must plays every week (Tomlinson, Peterson, Westbrook, Addai, Jackson, Barber, and Portis) with a lot of guys that are interchangeable after that.  That doesn’t even cover the entire first round of a fantasy draft. 

That puts the onus on the late round drafters to either follow the surefire strategies of the past or become creative in the ways they compete with the high drafters in their league that get those top tier running backs. 

While it is important to have good running backs, the goal is to maximize your scoring output, not follow a strategy someone taught you.  Average running backs will not accomplish that.  

3. The 2004 Interference Rule Change

If you look at where the receiving numbers have gone in recent years it is clear that teams are taking advantage of the contact rules to produce in the redzone.   There were 11 players in 2007 that had 10 plus receiving touchdowns. 

In 2003 six players tied for fourth with 10 touchdowns.  In 2002 only four players were in double-digit touchdowns.  Terrell Owens led the league that season with 13 touchdown grabs.    It applies to the quarterbacks too.  Tom Brady led the NFL in touchdown passes with 28 in 2002.  Brett Favre led the NFL in touchdown passes in 2003 with 32.  He was the only QB to pass for 30 touchdown passes that season.  In 2004 four players had 30-plus touchdowns.  In 2007 four more accomplished the feat.  Even in 2005 and 2006 at least one player reached the plateau.  With the pass interference rules friendly toward quarterbacks and receivers teams are taking advantage of the contact rules to score more passing touchdowns. 

The Steelers were a prime example of that.  They ran the ball in between the 20s.  Despite Big Ben having only 3,154 passing yards he had 32 touchdown passes.  They were either long throws opened up by play action or goal line looks to Miller and Holmes.  Steve McNair won a Co-MVP in 2003 throwing 24 touchdown passes.  That would not have ranked in the top 10 in 2007.  Brady passed that by his seventh game.  The result is that guys like Randy Moss, Braylon Edwards, Terrell Owens, Marques Colston, and Reggie Wayne are almost as attractive as running backs.  All were over 1,200 yards and all had 10 plus touchdowns.  Even a guy like Plaxico Burress or Greg Jennings put up competitive numbers with lower yardage totals, but 12 receiving touchdowns.  That doesn’t mean that running backs are losing their value tremendously that are no longer viable fantasy options.  What it does mean is that you cannot use 2002 and 2003 strategy to draft your fantasy football team. 

This is how I think one needs to approach the fantasy draft:  

1. Identify the must have running backs

I believe there are six of them in 2008.  I rank them as follows:  1) LaDainian Tomlinson, 2) Adrian Peterson, 3) Brian Westbrook, 4) Steven Jackson, 5) Joseph Addai, and 6) Marion Barber.  I think you can make a reasonable argument to put Clinton Portis there. 

After that there isn’t really a guy that I feel I have to draft.  They are either guys playing on poor offenses like Larry Johnson and Michael Turner, guys coming back from injury like L.J. and Ronnie Brown, guys that play in pass heavy offenses like Edgerrin James, guys that are unproven like Kevin Smith in Detroit, or backs that are in committee offenses like Julius Jones, T.J. Duckett, and Maurice Morris in Seattle.  

2. Know the league's scoring system

Some leagues award one point for 50 yards passing.  Some award one point for 25 yards passing.  Some leagues give only four points per touchdown pass.  Some leagues give a full six points.  You have to know your scoring system. 

If your system is biased toward running backs you have to take that into account when deciding whether to follow this advice.  I can foresee scoring systems where passing on a back in the first round would be disastrous. 

 3. Don’t reach

Randy Moss is acceptable in the first round.  Tom Brady is also a good call.  Don’t go with someone like Braylon Edwards who had one good year, Owens who is 35-years old, Chad Johnson who is going through the reinvention of "Ocho Cinco", or Reggie Wayne who puts up solid numbers, but has never had a gaudy season.  All are great players, but they are still second round picks. 

If you are going to go outside the box you have to get someone that is a virtual guarantee to deliver in a big way.  Missing on a first round running back hurts, passing on a back to get an average receiver or quarterback is even worse, because not only are you weak at running back, but you don’t gain an advantage over the high drafters at the quarterback or receiver spot.  

4. Be smart in the second round 

Just because you use that first pick on Randy Moss or Tom Brady doesn’t mean that you ignore running back in the second round.  I have seen a lot of people wait until the fifth or sixth round to start addressing running back when they have the eighth, ninth, or 10th pick. 

There are going to be a lot of tempting players to go with in the second round that aren’t running backs.  Remember, with so few guys getting featured carries you can cripple yourself waiting that long to draft running backs.  Make sure you get one of those second tier guys like Reggie Bush, Ryan Grant, Brandon Jacobs, Larry Johnson, or Maurice Jones-Drew in the second round.  Try to get a guy that has a good bye week with your first round pick or has good matchups when your first rounder has some tougher games.  You are trying to maximize talent, not reinvent the wheel. 

Running back is still the highest scoring position most weeks.  A season with no number one running backs will be a long season indeed.  The bottom line is that you have to be flexible. Successful businesses adjust to trends in the market.  Companies are having to reinvent themselves with $4.00 gas prices.  What was profitable four years ago can bankrupt a business today.  It is the same in fantasy football.  You have to realize there are more teams going with two running backs and adjust for that in how you draft.   While I am looking at getting running backs early, I think getting value is most important.  The goal is to score the most points each week, not draft a running back in the first round regardless of who else is on the board.  Successful fantasy players adjust to what is going on in the NFL.  

By understanding that running backs are important, but understanding the big picture you will maximize your opportunity to field a good team, which is every owners goal when they sit down to draft.  Good luck!

Derek Lofland is a fantasy columnist for Fantasy Football Maniaxs.com