Chaser Or Racer: NASCAR's Race To The Chase (New Hampshire)

Ah, the sweet presence of summer. For most us, it means time off of school (for those who, like me, ha VA not yet entered the “real world”), barbeques, beach vacations, and a chance to work on that tan…or just get multiple sun burns. Simply put, it is one of the most enjoyable times of the year.

However, it’s not all fun and games. Imagine being one of the bubble drivers and teams fighting for a spot in the Sprint Cup Series Chase for the Championship. For them, it’s not about fun and games; it’s all business. The summer represents crunch time for those on the cusp of qualifying for “The Chase.” If you’re in the top 12, you have a legitimate shot at winning the champions…and the millions of dollars of prize money that comes with. If you’re out, it’s all about having to prepare for next year, with many thoughts of your season being “If only I hadn’t done that.”

During this summer stretch toward NASCAR’s playoffs, I’ll offer insight and analysis of the teams on the bubble (those currently 10^th through 16^th in the standings) and discuss their chances of making or missing The Chase. With that, let’s get to it.

10th place Clint Bowyer

            Last year’s Cinderella Story, Bowyer’s season, on paper, says he should be in a safe spot in the standings. He’s got a win, 4 four top 5’s, and eight top 10’s (one more than fifth place Jimmie Johnson). However, after Richmond fell into his lap, he and his team hit a dry spell. Upon following his win with a solid 15th at Darlington, four straight finishes of 25th or worse saw him drop to 12th in the standings, before nice fourth at Infineon brought him back up to 10th. He’s got the talent, his team has the resources, and the group as a whole knows what it takes to qualify for and excel in The Chase. However, he and the team can’t afford too many more bad days; he’s only 34 points ahead of 13th place Kevin Harvick, his teammate. His chances are still pretty good, but another slip-up could drop him out. 

11th place Tony Stewart

            Smoke typically hits his stride in the summer (see his 2005 championship season). However, he and his team seem to be struggling this year and have been greatly overshadowed by teammates Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. Sure, Stewart is always a threat to win a championship, but something seems off this season. Maybe it only looks that way because he always starts the season a little cold? Maybe his questionable status within Joe Gibbs Racing is a distraction? Whatever it is, he and his team need to raise their game…and now. The last time he was in hot Chase water was in 2006…and he didn’t qualify for it that season.

12th place Matt Kenseth

            Shhh, don’t tell anyone, but Kenseth has quietly and methodically moved into the Chase lineup after early season struggles. As usual, he doesn’t make any headlines, isn’t the talk of the broadcasters, and is all but invisible during the race. Yet, he and his team go about their business and, before we even know he’s in the race, he’s in the top 10 at the end. Of the current bubble drivers, he’s the one I’m least worried about. The hard luck that hit and his team in the early races seems to have passed and they look to be near their full stride. Expect him to comfortably qualify, and maybe make a run at winning the title.

13th place Kevin Harvick

             Since winning the 2007 Daytona 500, “Happy” Harvick hasn’t had much go his way. He barely made The Chase last season (thanks the Dale Jr.’s copious engine problems) and only recorded four top 5’s last year. This year, it’s more of the same. He only has two top 5’s and 5 top 10’s, without any wins, and currently is out of The Chase. If anyone needs a shot of momentum, it’s this driver and this team. If they keep this up, they’ll miss The Chase by a significant margin. At any rate, they’ve got a lot of work to do in order to catch up.

14th place David Ragan

            The surprise contender this year, Ragan has showed great improvement this year and is showing that Jack Roush wasn’t stupid when he put Ragan in the famed Number six Ford. He’s been quietly consistent, scoring several top 15 runs this year, highlighted by a pair of top 5’s and 4 top 10’s. That first win is coming, and would give him a nice shot of confidence, which is growing with every race. If he can sneak in, he just may do what Bowyer did last: challenge for a championship, something which would make me feel very old (he’s only a year and a half older than me).

15th place Brian Vickers

            Maybe leaving Hendrick Motorsports wasn’t such a bad idea after all. He was, statistically, Toyota’s best driver in 2007 and is still competing for that position with the larger and much more successful Gibbs team. The Red Bull organization has made some nice progress this year (even A.J. Allmendinger is doing well) and seem poised to make a Chase run. He’ll need some of the guys in front of him to slip a little, but it’s more than possible that he’ll be in the hunt when we get to Richmond.

16th place Ryan Newman

            He may have won The Daytona 500, but he, and the entire Penske organization for that matter, has fallen down the standing after that historic 1-2 in Florida. Newman is barely hanging on, while Kurt Busch is…wait…where is he? Oh, I found him; he’s in…22^nd?! They may be Daytona 500 champions, but they may be too far behind to make The Chase. Don’t expect Newman to qualify, even if the drivers in front of him slip. His team just is just too far behind.