2008 NFL Preview: NFC West

The NFC West had a rough year in 2007. Seattle won the division with a 10-6 record, but was 1-1 against playoff teams. They won their Wild Card game against Washington before being blown out by Green Bay in the Divisional Round.

Arizona finished 8-8, but two disappointing losses to the 49ers kept them out of playoff contention. The 49ers were a trendy pick to win the division after a free-agency spending spree, but they finished 5-11.

Finally, the Rams, who were also a trendy pick to win the division, finished 3-13, and had the second overall pick in the draft. Injuries and inconsistent play were largely responsible for a division that produced only one team with a winning record. 

The NFC West has been owned by the Seattle Seahawks, who have won the division four consecutive seasons and made the playoffs in five consecutive seasons. Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the NFC West.

1) Arizona Cardinals

      ‘07 Record: 8-8

      Points Scored: 404 (7th)

      Points Allowed: 399 (27th)

      Playoff Result: N/A

      2008 Strength of Schedule:  119-137 (.465) (T-22nd in NFL)

Strengths: The Arizona Cardinals have one of the strongest passing-offenses in the NFL. Larry Fitzgerald had 100 catches for 1,409 yards and 10 touchdowns.  Anquan Boldin added 71 catches for 853 yards and nine touchdowns, despite missing five starts with an injury. Those two form the most explosive wide-receiver combo in the NFC.

Fitzgerald will be 25-years old at the end of August, and Boldin will be 28-years old in October. If the Cardinals can resolve Boldin’s contract issues, they should have a dominant receiving duo for years to come.

Bryant Johnson was a solid, third receiver and is only 27-years old. Losing him to division rival San Francisco was a meaningful loss. He has filled in well in the past when Boldin or Fitzgerald were hurt.

Ben Patrick and Leonard Pope are young tight ends that the Cardinals hope can emerge. The Cardinals are loaded with young offensive weapons at WR and TE.

Kurt Warner enjoyed his best season since his years in St Louis. He had 11 starts, 3,417 yards passing, 27 touchdowns, 17 picks, and an 89.8 QB rating.  He is expected to be the backup to third-year QB Matt Leinart, who really struggled at the beginning of the season before having his 2007 campaign cut short by a collarbone injury.

Leinart has reportedly looked very strong this offseason, but Warner is still taking snaps with the first team. If he struggles, the coaching staff will not hesitate to go with Warner.

Edgerrin James rebounded slightly in 2007, thanks to a coaching staff that focused on the run slightly more than Dennis Green. His 1,222 rushing yards were seventh in the NFL, and he improved his yards-per-carry from 3.4 to 3.8, which is still not great. That signing has not produced the results many thought it would. The Cardinals had no one else that ran the ball and finished 29th in rushing-yards gained.

The Cardinals front seven did a nice job of stopping the run, finishing ninth in the NFL. They also finished 13th in sacks with 36. Losing Calvin Pace to the Jets was a significant loss, but the Jets drastically overpaid for his services. Six years and $42 million was too much cap space to part with.

The Cardinals did not replace him with anyone in free agency or the draft. Fourth-year player Chike Okeafor is expected to take that spot. 

Weaknesses: Ken Whisenhunt was an assistant for the Steelers on teams that had very strong defenses. That is what he has been brought in to fix. He needs to install toughness on offense and rebuild a bad defense. The Cardinals have had a good enough passing offense to make the playoffs the last few years. The main problem on defense was stopping the pass. They finished 28th in pass yards allowed and 25th in touchdown passes allowed.

That was the main motivation for adding Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the first round of the draft. The Cardinals could have used a back to split carries with Edge, but the Cardinals could not pass on the opportunity to add secondary help.

He has big play potential and is expected to be the nickel back as a rookie.  Roderick Hood and Eric Green are expected to remain the starters. Adrian Wilson is a solid safety, and Antrel Rolle will be the other safety this year. The secondary should be improved in 2008.

The other area the Cardinals wanted to improve on was the pass rush. While 36 sacks ranked 12th, it was also 17 sacks less than the league-leading NY Giants.  The Cardinals were far from an elite pass-rushing group last season. Darnell Dockett made the Pro Bowl with his nine sacks at defensive tackle. The Cardinals drafted Calais Campbell and Kenny Iwebema to give them more depth at defensive end. 

Finally, the offensive line still needs some work. James is still an effective runner, but he doesn’t get the same lanes he did in Indianapolis. Brown and Gandy are good at tackle, but the Cardinals have little depth behind those two. The interior of the offensive line is improved from the Dennis-Green days, but still needs work.

Prediction:  This is my surprise division winner in 2008. The Cardinals have been a trendy Wild-Card pick the last couple seasons, only to disappoint. I picked them to finish fourth last season, which turned out to be an underestimate. I thought it would take a couple years to recover from the Green era.

There are good things going on in Arizona, and few people realize the Cardinals were two bad, 49er losses away from earning a Wild Card berth. The Cardinals beat the Steelers, Seahawks, and Browns last season. They were anything but a pushover.

I love their schedule to start the season. 1) @ San Fran, 2) Miami, 3) Washington, 4) New York Jets, and 5) Buffalo, gives them an excellent chance to start 4-1. They need to start hot because they close the season with 15) Minnesota, 16) @ New England, and 17) Seattle. That isn’t going to be an easy stretch to make up ground.

Arizona had a very nice draft and would be a bigger favorite to me if they had their quarterback situation figured out. Warner is a question mark at this point in his career, and Leinart needs to break out this year. If he has another year like he did last year, he is going to earn the bust label. I expect him to rebound.

I think Arizona made a good hire in Whisenhunt, and the Cardinals are on the way up. I think Seattle’s window has started to close. This is the year I think the Cardinals finally put it together and win the NFC West behind a potent offense and a favorable schedule.

Arizona Cardinals’ Record: 9-7—NFC West Divisional Champion; NFC No. 4 Seed

2) Seattle Seahawks

      ‘07 Record: 10-6

      Points Scored: 393 (ninth)

      Points Allowed: 291 (sixth)

      Playoff Result: Lost NFC Divisional Round

      2008 Strength of Schedule: 122-134 (.477) (19th in NFL) 

Strengths:  The strength of this team is their defense. That is important, because no other team has a defense with as much talent as the Seahawks in the NFC West. The Seahawks recorded the fourth-most sacks in the NFL with 45.  That was in large part to Patrick Kearny and his All-Pro, 14.5-sack season. The defensive line did an excellent job of putting pressure on the quarterback.

What they need to improve on is stopping the run. They ranked 12th in rush-yards allowed and 27th in rush-touchdowns allowed. That was really the defense’s only weakness in 2007. This is a very fast front-seven, which creates the pressure, but is a little on the light side to stop the run.

The Green Bay Packers exposed the Seahawks for that weakness in the divisional round. Ryan Grant ran right through that defense, to the tune of 201 rushing yards and three touchdowns.

Lofa Tatupu has emerged as one of the best middle linebackers in the NFL. He was an All-Pro selection last season. Julian Peterson was selected to the Pro Bowl at the outside linebacker spot. These two are extremely fast and make plays all over the field.

In the secondary, Marcus Trufant had a Pro-Bowl year with seven picks. He is emerging as one of the NFL’s top cornerbacks. Jennings, Russell, and Grant round out a very solid secondary.

On offense, Matt Hasselbeck has established himself as one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. He had 3,966-yards passing, 28 touchdowns, 12 picks, and a 91.4 rating, without the benefit of getting much help from the running game. He is now the featured element of the Seahawks' offense.

Alexander had only 716 rushing yards and four touchdowns in 2007. That seems incomprehensible when you consider he had 1,880 rushing yards and 27 rushing touchdowns in 2005.

Alexander was released, and while it will look strange not to have him as the featured runner for the first time since his rookie season in 2000, the Seahawks abandoned him in 2007 and were already featuring Hasselbeck and the passing game. That will make that transition easier.

Finally, you can’t talk about the Seahawks' offense without mentioning Walter Jones. He has been as solid of a tackle as the NFL has had over the last decade.  At 34, he is still going strong. He anchors a line that is still good, but not as dominant as 2005, when they went to the Super Bowl.

Weaknesses: This is a team with a lot of question marks on offense. That is a surprising statement, given Mike Holmgren’s reputation as an offensive mastermind.

Let’s start with the wide receivers.

Deion Branch tore his ACL in the playoff loss to the Packers on January 15, 2008. That really puts his status in jeopardy to start the season. Bobby Engram is 35-years old. He had a career year with 94 catches and 1,147 yards. He is unhappy and demanding a new deal. D.J. Hackett left for Carolina.

That leaves special-team standout, but disappointing receiver, Nate Burleson and Ben Obomanu to battle for playing time opposite Engram. That is huge, because of the Seahawks' inability to run the ball last year. They used a lot of four-WR sets to spread the ball out. Teams need a lot of WR depth to do that. The Seahawks are not as deep as last year and that is a concern.

The Seahawks have no tight-end production. The tight end is a big component in the West Coast offense. Marcus Pollard was released, and Will Heller is expected to be the starter. He has 32 catches for 228 yards and seven touchdowns, not last year, but in five years and 58 career games. John Carlson is a rookie second-rounder and will be expected to contribute immediately.  

Then there is the running game. People need to stop acting like Julius Jones is the savior of the running game. He rushed for 3.6 yards per carry behind one of the best offensive lines in football with Dallas last year. There is a reason the Cowboys went with Barber and let Jones walk.

He should be a good fit in this offense, but I can’t see him rushing for 1,200-plus yards and 10 touchdowns. He is not a featured back. Maurice Morris, T.J. Duckett, and Julius Jones will split duties depending on the situation. I don’t look for any of them to emerge.

Then there is the offensive line. Walter Jones is now 34-years old. The Seahawks have never really replaced Hutchinson since he left for Minnesota. Mike Wahle was a good pickup at guard, but he hasn’t been the same since he left Green Bay. He was injured in 2006 and played on a bad offense in 2007. If he can return to his Green-Bay form, it will help the Seahawks regain their running form of a few years ago.

Finally, there is the special-teams factor. Josh Brown signed with St. Louis and was an extremely reliable kicker. The new kicker is no other than Olindo Mare, who was a disaster in New Orleans. He was 10 for 17 on field goals, and New Orleans plays in a lot of nice-weather sites, including their dome. Then you factor in how he is going to respond kicking in the elements. When you add those things all together, I think the offense is going to take a significant step back in 2008. I think Mare could cost them a couple games that Brown would have won.

Prediction:  This is supposed to be Mike Holmgren’s last season with the Seahawks before he calls it quits on what has been a legendary career. He has coached in three Super Bowls, winning it all in Super Bowl XXXI. He coached all-time great Joe Montana and Hall of Famer Steve Young as a coordinator in San Francisco. He developed one of the all-time great quarterbacks in Brett Favre as the Packer’s head coach.

He has gone to a Super Bowl in Seattle, developed Hasselbeck to go along with Alexander and a strong running-game. His coaching-tree speaks for itself. The number of ex-Holmgren assistants coaching around the NFL is long and prominent. If he actually decides to hang it up, it will have been a fantastic career, one that should see him inducted into Canton, Ohio.

It would seem logical to pick the Hawks to win the division in his last year and ride out into the sunset. I just don’t like the Seahawks' team this season as much as in years past. I think they have gotten a little bit older. I don’t think they have a lot of good answers at wide receiver. I’m not a fan of their running game.

I’m not going to pick an offense to do well, just because they have a head coach and quarterback with solid reputations. There are a lot of other things that go into having a good offense.

Still, the Seahawks are going to score points. This is not one of the 10 worst offenses in the NFL. It isn’t even the worst offense in the division. However, in order for the defense to get those sacks, and not give up a lot of rushing yards, Seattle needs their offense to dominate the action. I’m not sure they can do that in 2008 like they did last season.

The Seahawks have been the class of this division since 2003. However, there are moments when you look back and see the door slam shut on a team’s run.  That’s what I think we saw in that Green Bay game. The Seahawks had a 14-0 lead in that game and proceed to get stomped. That game was disturbing on so many levels.

It wasn’t that they lost; it was how they lost. They were manhandled on both sides of the ball. They have progressively gone in the wrong direction since 2005. A very weak schedule and bad division probably saved them in 2007.

I think they have a pretty tough stretch in the middle of the season. They play 9) Philadelphia, 10) @ Miami, 11) Arizona, 12) Washington, 13) @ Dallas, and 14) New England. They also have games against Green Bay and Tampa Bay, who will not be as good as last year, but still tough.

The Seahawks will still win their share of games. They will still be tough at home. I wouldn’t be shocked if they were able to put together a division winner. The NFC West isn’t exactly the toughest division right now. I just think it is someone else’s time.

The Cardinals should be able to maneuver the middle of the season with greater ease than the Seahawks, and build a cushion heading into their tough stretch to close the season. While the Cardinals will not run away with the division, I predict they will sneak by the Seahawks, who will still be tough, but not as tough as in years past.

Seattle Seahawks’ Record: 8-8—NFC West second place; No Playoffs

3) St. Louis Rams

      ‘07 Record: 3-13

      Points Scored: 263 (28th)

      Points Allowed: 438 (31st)

      Playoff Result: N/A

      2008 Strength of Schedule: 125-131 (.488) (17th in NFL)

Strengths: When you start the season 0-8, finish with the second-worst scoring defense and the fifth-worst scoring offense, there aren’t a lot of things to hang your hat on.

However, the Rams were probably hit by injuries worse than any team in the NFL. They had massive casualties on the offensive line, including future Hall of Fame tackle Orlando Pace, who was lost for the season in the opener. He missed eight games in 2006, and it remains to be seen if he can still stay healthy an entire season.

Steven Jackson and Marc Bulger missed four starts each. Torry Holt was not the same Torry Holt as a couple of years ago, due to his knee condition. Doctors feel he will be able to play still, but fear it will be a chronic problem. If those three guys aren’t healthy the whole season, the Rams can’t win.

Isaac Bruce is no longer with the team, having moved to San Francisco. He was a great receiver for many years, but Holt has been the go-to guy in recent years. They still have Drew Bennett, and they drafted Donnie Avery in the second round. TE Randy McMichael needs to regain his Dolphin form from a few seasons ago.

Josh Brown was a nice addition. He is a solid kicker that is an upgrade over retired Jeff Wilkins and hurts a division rival at the same time.

The bottom line is that the 28th ranking in scoring offense from last season is deceiving. When this offense is healthy, it is extremely dangerous. Bulger had 4,301 yards, 24 touchdowns, and only eight picks in 2006. Steven Jackson had 2,334 rushing and receiving yards and scored 16 touchdowns in 2006. Holt had 1,188 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2006. He had almost identical numbers in 2007, but had three fewer touchdown catches.

These are three of the premier offensive-players in the NFL. When they are healthy and at full strength, they can put up points in bunches. Given the state of their defense, that will be a must if they want to win in 2008.

Weaknesses:  This defense has all kinds of problems. They struggled to stop the pass, rush the passer, and stop the run. Their only real strength on defense was playmaking. They were tied for 10th in the NFL with interceptions with 18.

However, when you give up over 20 points in 12 of the 16 games, there is going to be problems winning games. The defense was a joke in December, giving up 33 points to Green Bay, 41 to Pittsburgh, and 48 to Arizona. No defense was playing as bad as the Rams' at the end of the season.

That was the main reason for selecting Chris Long with the second pick in the draft. Defenses are built from the defensive line out, and the Rams need to overhaul that unit. Adam Carriker can then move to defensive tackle. With Leonard Little, James Hall, and Chris Long rushing from the ends, the Rams are hoping they can put more pressure on the quarterback.

They also added Justin King in the fourth round to help in the secondary. He was an up-and-down corner at Penn State. He should be a nickel-and-dime package guy as a rookie.

However, other than Long, they really haven’t made a lot of changes to a defense that was downright awful in 2007. I still see St. Louis as one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL.

The other area of concern was the offensive line. John Greco was drafted in the third round to provide depth. They really didn’t add anyone other than him there either. If they suffer injuries like they did last year, they will struggle to maximize their skill position talent.

Finally, Trent Green was an interesting signing. They went from a bad backup in Gus Frerotte, to a guy who was among the better QBs in the league a few years ago.

However, they aren’t getting the guy that threw for over 4,500 yards in 2004. They are getting a guy that is a concussion away from retirement. If Bulger misses a lot of time, the Rams do not stand a good chance to compete in most games. I don’t think Green can hold up for more than a game or two.

Prediction: This is a team that looked to be headed in the right direction with Scott Linehan finishing 8-8 in his first year. I thought they would win the NFC West last season. This defense has absolutely collapsed, and the Rams are in need of a major overhaul.

I thought this team really struck out in the draft. I like Chris Long and think he will be a fantastic player. He may be the only player on this roster three years from now. Avery and King were real reaches in my opinion.

The Rams will do better in 2008, just because their skill-position players should stay healthy and they have the offense to score. That still means 10 losses and another top 10 pick in 2008.

St Louis Rams’ Record:  6-10—NFC West third Place; No Playoffs

4) San Francisco 49ers

      ‘07 Record: 5-11

      Points Scored: 219 (32nd)

      Points Allowed: 364 (20th)

      Playoff Result: N/A

      2008 Strength of Schedule: 124-132 (.484) (18th in NFL)

Strengths:  Patrick Willis had as good of a rookie year as I can remember from a defensive rookie. He had 174 tackles, including back-to-back 18-tackle games against Arizona and Carolina, and a 20-tackle game against Tampa Bay.

Rarely is a rookie able to come into the NFL in his first year and put up those kinds of numbers. When you consider how little help he had around him, it was a very impressive start to what I expect will be a great career.

The 49ers have some nice pieces on defense. I already mentioned Willis. He is a player the defense can build around. Kentwan Balmer was a nice first-round pick that should give them help at defensive tackle.

Manny Lawson is a young star in the making that was limited to two games last season. If he can come back healthy, that will help the defense. Nate Clements gives them a corner to build the secondary around, and Michael Lewis is a good safety. Walt Harris gives them a good second corner.

The defense struggled to stop people, mainly because they got no help from the offense. Turnovers and a lack of yardage put the 49ers' defense against their backs in 2007. This defense rarely played with a big lead. While this defense will never be confused with the 2000 Ravens, they need a better offense to realize their full potential.

On offense, Frank Gore took a step back in 2007, due in part to injuries. He had 1,102 yards and five touchdowns. They were hoping for the 1,695 and eight touchdowns he gave them in 2006. With the passing game the 49ers have in place, they will need him to get back to his 2006 numbers if they want to win more than five games in 2008. DeShaun Foster was a very good signing that should give them good depth at the running back position.

Mike Martz has been brought in to fix the offense. Isaac Bruce was a good signing, as he is familiar with the system and can help mentor the younger guys. Vernon Davis has all the tools to be an All-Pro tight end. It will be interesting to see how Martz utilizes his talent, given his history of not using tight ends in his pass-heavy offensive scheme.

Weaknesses: This was not the worst offense I ever saw. The 2006 Oakland Raiders and their 168 points scored take that honor. 49er fans will remind me their 2005 product may have been worse than 2007. But this offense was so bad on so many levels.

The offense scored more than 20 points on just two occasions (21 against Tampa Bay and 37 against Arizona). When you consider Tampa played their backups most of that game, you can understand why this team struggled to win games in 2007. Their offensive production was horrific.

In my opinion, QB Alex Smith is a major bust. Part of that is because he plays in a new offensive-system every year. Part of the reason is that he plays so bad that he helps the offensive coordinator get fired every year. To label a guy a bust at 24-years old may seem premature to some people.

However, he is entering his fourth year. There gets to be a point where a guy is no longer a young player, but rather just a bad player. He has a career 63.5 QB rating in 30 career starts.  He had two touchdown throws in seven starts in 2007.

The game appears to be played at a speed that is too fast for him, at a time when it should have already slowed down. It will be interesting to see if the 49ers go with Shaun Hill, or if they give Alex Smith the entire season to show if he has what it takes to play in this league.

The 49ers don’t have much in the way of targets. Bruce is an upgrade, but his best days are clearly behind him. Bryant Johnson has been a third receiver the majority of his career. It remains to be seen if he can carry an offense. Battle and Lelie are not players that have proven they can contribute on offense.

This is a very thin receiving corps, which does not allow Martz to run the offense he would like to run.

Prediction: There just aren’t a lot of good things to say about this team right now. It amazes me that a team that was so successful in the '80s and '90s has fallen on such hard times. Even Joe Montana and Steve Young seem like ages ago. Jeff Garcia and Terrell Owens do not. The 49ers went 22-10 in 2001 and 2002. They made the playoffs both season. Since then, 7-9 is the best they have done.

Mike Nolan is a good defensive coordinator that just hasn’t been able to get an offense in place. Part of that is Alex Smith. That was the quarterback the 49ers drafted in his rookie campaign.  hether it is Nolan’s fault that Smith hasn’t developed, or Smith’s fault that Nolan’s offenses can’t score is an interesting debate. It is most likely a little of both.

The 49ers have finished last in the NFL in yards gained two out of his three years, so it couldn’t be much worse than it is right now. This team has very little offensive firepower.

I think Gore and the defense give them a chance to win a few games. I like the fact that they play the AFC East and the Rams twice. That gives them a chance to be competitive in some of their games. The bottom line, though, is that you need offense to win in the NFL, and the 49ers just don’t have enough of it to compete week in and week out.

Their defense is solid, but not like the 2005 Bears, where it can carry a nonexistent offense. I look for more of the same in 2008. I think the 49ers finish 4-12, end the Mike Nolan era, and look forward to their next rebuilding project.

San Francisco 49ers’ Record: 4-12—NFC West fourth Place; No Playoffs

Derek Lofland is the NFL director for Fantasy Football Maniaxs.com