Wizards Offseason: Do-or-Die Decisions for Washington

The Washington Wizards franchise is at another crossroads this offseason.

Back in the summer of 2005, the Wiz faced critical decisions regarding free agent guard Larry Hughes and suspended power forward Kwame Brown. 

That fateful summer, President of Basketball Operations Ernie Grunfeld made the right calls by letting Hughes walk away with big money from the Cleveland Cavaliers and unloading Brown onto the Los Angeles Lakers for small forward Caron Butler.  Neither were slam-dunk decisions at the time.

Hughes was coming off a career season, in which he averaged 22.0 points per game and led the NBA with 2.9 steals per contest.  In addition, he stuffed the stat sheet with 6.3 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game.

Seemingly, Hughes was the perfect backcourt complement to All-Star running mate Gilbert Arenas.  Both were combo guards with point guard skills who could take turns running the offense or looking for their own shot.  They also swarmed on defense—taking risks, harassing opponents, and creating uncontested layups off turnovers.

But Hughes was commanding a max contract and he was injury prone.  Also, Arenas was evolving into one of the best players in the league, and was soon to command his own long-term maximum deal.

Should the Wiz commit the franchise’s fortunes on two little men?

Would the combination of Hughes and Arenas lead Washington to the promised land?

I didn’t think it was wise to break the bank on two guards, but I didn’t want to see Hughes go.  Seemingly he was on the cusp of greatness and I didn’t want to see another former Wizard/Bullet become a cornerstone star for a different franchise—like Richard Hamilton, Rasheed Wallace, Chris Webber, or Ben Wallace.

But the dollars were too rich, and Grunfeld wisely put his checkbook away.

The end result? Hughes was a bust in Cleveland and they moved him to Chicago to try to repair the mistake.  In fairness to Hughes, his 20-year-old brother Justin succumbed to heart illness in May 2006, and I believe Hughes hasn’t recovered from that personal loss.

Then there was the Kwame Brown saga.  Grunfeld inherited this tortured No. 1 overall draft pick from previous team president Michael Jordan.  Although Kwame had shot himself in the foot by acting like a knucklehead and getting suspended during the playoffs, he still possessed the potential that had seduced MJ into drafting him first overall—and Kwame was merely 23 years old.

Although all signs pointed toward an exit, the Wizards had to exercise caution about jettisoning another prospect.  Remember, Washington has a history of unloading young talent that thrives elsewhere, leaving egg on the faces of executives and angering fans of the franchise.

Once again, not only did Grunfeld make the right decision, but he fleeced the Lakers Mitch Kupchack, acquiring future All-Star Caron Butler in return for the underachieving Brown—which brings us to the current dilemma.

Butler is now entrenched as the Wizards’ future, and Washington must decide whether to retain the services of Arenas and free-agent forward Antawn Jamison.

If Arenas hadn’t had two surgeries on the same knee within a span of seven months, this would be a no-brainer.  Although I have doubt whether Arenas is championship material, he unquestionably is the bread and butter of the organization. 

Arenas is the face of the franchise, the biggest draw for ticket sales, tremendously active in the community—and you don’t have to worry about him getting fat and lazy with a massive contract.  Gil’s got that persistent chip on his shoulder and he wants to prove everyone wrong, so he’s a relatively safe investment.

Unfortunately, he is damaged goods, and I’m concerned he could be the next Grant Hill.  The Orlando Magic were supposed to contend for championship glory with Hill as the frontman, but instead he was a $93 million anchor for six painful, injury-riddled seasons of frustration.  If the Wiz sink a boatload of money into a crippled Arenas, this ship is going down like the Titanic and the Wizards will be bottom-feeders for the next half decade.

Then there’s the Jamison matter.  Antawn had his best campaign in Washington this past year, and helped the Wiz succeed even though Arenas missed 69 regular season games. 

Jamison brings a lot more to the table than just his plethora of double-doubles (21.4 points and 10.2 boards a night, to be exact).  His intangibles include leadership, a positive and stabilizing presence in the locker room, and a reputation as an all-around good guy.

Although I like the Jamison package as a whole, I’m not a fan of his game on the court.  Defensively, he’s a liability.  He plays like a small forward against 4s (not big and physical enough) and like a power forward against 3s (not agile and athletic enough).

Also, he’s a streaky perimeter shooter.  It can be feast or famine for Jamison.  And when it’s famine, he puts the Wizards in a hole.  And when your best rebounder is launching bricks from beyond the arc, you’re missing his offensive rebounding presence as well.

So should the Wizards extend a bonanza of millions to a very good, but flawed third wheel?

Public indications are that Grunfeld will bite the bullet and attempt to re-sign both Arenas and Jamison.  But that was the initial public stance in the summer of 2005 regarding Hughes and Brown—and neither was welcomed back.

And should the Wizards stand pat with this “Big Three,” and hope they can overcome Boston’s Three Kings or King James in Cleveland?

History suggests that Washington may have Boston’s number (the Wiz were 3-1 against the Celtics last year), but they don’t have a chance against the Cavs (three straight years of playoff futility against LeBron James and crew).

Or should Grunfeld break up the “DC Big Three,” and reload around Butler?

I think the Wizards are screwed either way.  Washington ultimately won’t prevail over the “Boston Three Party,” and they are simply doomed against LeBron unless they can acquire a couple defensive stalwarts this offseason whose mission is to confound King James the way the Celtics stymied Kobe Bryant in the NBA Finals.

Considering the dead-ends on both fronts, the Wiz might as well keep the familiar trio in tact, shoot for a 50-win season, and host a first-round playoff series at home.  This formula should avoid LeBron in the first round at least.  After that, any advancement in the playoffs is gravy for the Wiz—because nobody expects anything more.

Stability in the 2008-2009 season is a key advantage, because so many playoff hopefuls are retooling this offseason.  In the East, the perennial powerhouse Detroit Pistons are remaking both the coaching staff and roster.  In the West, the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks both dumped winning coaches.

Unless Grunfeld can conjure some magic again, cutting ties with either or both Arenas and Jamison will set the Wizards backwards. Who can fill those players' shoes?

And frankly, the roster may not be the only problem.  Eddie Jordan is a very good offensive coach, but Washington’s defense is notoriously below average.  Until they solve the defensive inadequacies, they are just another pretender—not a true contender.

Since I don’t foresee any NBA championships in Washington anyway, I’d roll the dice with “Agent Zero” and enjoy his highlights and antics.  Hibachi!