Eric "the Hype" Berry

I am going to make several points today so please read this completely.  A professional sports scout is in the realm of professions like that of a weather person or fortune teller where they can be consistently wrong  and yet show up to work again and again and still receive a paycheck.  Any job where you speculate in prospect or potential has a high percentage of failure.  Those who delve in this game of guesswork, try to present their analysis in positive words on objects they like and downgrade objects they don't like.    They use comparisons to known quantities, which is completely unfair to the unknown quantity.  For example,  I've often heard Eric Berry is a ball hawk like Ed Reed or Troy Palomau or is similar to Sean Taylor.  No offense to Eric Berry but, Ed Reed and Troy Palomau are perennial All Pros who play on fantastic defenses with other great ensemble players who also make consistent Pro Bowls.   If the draft speculators are correct and a team with a poor defense drafts Berry extremely early then the odds of Berry making the Pro Bowl or displaying his true potential will be significantly reduced because he will not be on a team with pro bowl caliber players.   

Currently the teams at the bottom of the NFL rankings in total defense are Detroit, St. Louis, Tampa Bay and Kansas City.  It just so happens those teams are ranked at the bottom of the spectrum in pass defense. It doesn't help that these teams just hired new head coaches this year. So the  commentators and the draftniks would make the obvious claim that those bad teams need  significant help in the secondary.  Bad move and poor team analysis.  Let's take Tampa Bay for example.  In 2008, with the same players on the 2009 secondary, Tampa Bay finished near the top of the league in pass defense.  So how can the draftnicks look at this and say Tampa needs secondary help?   If they looked a little closer they would have seen in 2008, the Tampa Bay defense against the RUN was also tops in the league yet, in 2009 they are bordering on being last against the RUN.  Why such a drastic difference...They lost long time Defensive Coordinator and now current Tennessee Defensive Coordinator Monty Kiffin and then they lost Linebackers Derrick Brooks and Cato June  both of whom played on super bowl winning teams, excelled at their positions and were replaced by Geno Hayes and other NFL journeymen.  So why draft secondary when your obvious problem lies in your linebackers, line play and coaching.  The secondary is fine, but the players upfront need to be addressed in Tampa Bay.  Adding a secondary player will not help especially if that player cannot tackle a large NFL running back.

The great Bill Parcells provides an analytical approach to creating what makes a prototypical NFL safety. http://sports.espn.go.com/espnradio/player?context=podcast&id=3041425

Ideal height and weight- 6'0 3/8 inches 206 lbs
Ideal 40m- 4.53 40
Parcells says these are things they must have


1. FBI- Football Instincts. Quick reacter.

2. Toughness & competitiveness

3. Tackling & run support

4. Good ball skills

5. Have to be able to cover 1 on 1 in short spaces such as the red zone. Can't hide them there

6. Have to be able to cover the TE

7. Have to be the QB of the secondary

Must have these skills or characteristics

-Be able to read keys
-React
-Have catch up speed
-Burst to close
-Ball reaction
-Hands
-Man coverage
-Good zone reaction


3rd down defenses are faced with a dilemma......

Are they (SS) big enough to move into the box

Normally are key special teams guys
 

Unfortunately, Berry lacks a lot of what is on Parcell's' list.  Berry has regressed this year in his tackling and certainly falls far short of zone reaction and man coverage. Watch the Ole Miss video I provided.

No matter how much logic or objectivity you try to impart to the know it all fans or teams to address the team needs somehow, someway the bottom dwelling team’s Front Office listen to their scouts and the NFL commentators, and seem hell bent on drafting a rookie who has 0 experience covering a NFL player in game, is physically unable to properly perform the needed duties of the job, is over hyped and under analyzed, never experienced the speed of the NFL game and never digested or reacted to the varying offenses and NFL  in-game changes.   Granted every rookie faces those tasks but to ask a rookie to help a team with significant flaws is a task for a veteran free agent defensive back to answer.  The responsibility is too much to impart to a soon to be rookie in Berry that is overhyped, under analyzed and not an NFL safety.

Sometimes, those who are close to the situation know best.  Charles Davis, Fox BCS Analyst, Former Tennessee Volunteer Defensive Back, NFL Network Analyst, commented on Eric Berry's future as a NFL Safety; "As far as Eric Berry - don't be surprised if he's a pro Cornerback.....as opposed to a pro Safety." Davis goes on to add, "He's got the build to play corner, he's got the feet to play corner, and he could very well follow in the same footsteps as a former Tennennesse All-American Safety by the name of Dale Carter, who became an All-Pro Corner."

Yet, when you read or hear any ESPN commentator, the discussion starts with Eric Berry is the next Ed Reed or Sean Taylor, He has this or that, Can do this or that.  That was last year and his freshman year when he racked up double digit INT's and made big plays that made him a known quantity on the college football scene in the SEC. 

This year, the over hyped Berry who won the Jim Thorpe Award, for the Nation's top Defensive Back has reminded me of former over hyped Former Missouri Safety William Moore who had a breakout All American early career at Missouri and then in his final year was exposed as a being not as good as the prognosticators thought. Berry's performance in the new Tennessee Defense run by long time NFL defensive coach Monty Kiffin has not been nearly top notch in the nation for the defensive back to be awarded the Thorpe Award.  He did not lead the nation in INT's or tackles; at times he was not even the best defensive back on his team.  For reference on Berry's poor performance in 2009 read this article.  http://seahawksdraft.blogspot.com/2009/11/eric-berry-officially-over-rated.html

CBSsports.com provides a snippet of Berry's performance in a game versus Auburn. 10/04/2009 - SEASON RECAP: Auburn 26, Tennessee 22 - The volunteers gave up 459 total yards and had eight 3-and-outs on offense as they lost their SEC home opener to the Tigers. SS Eric Berry notched 14 tackles, but by his standards, didn't have a great game. Berry missed a handful of tackles and was plowed by Auburn's Ben Tate on a second quarter run for a first down.

If you want to see evidence of the hit from Ben Tate, it is contained on this website. http://www.3sib.com/2009/10/06/eric-berry-breaking-news/ watch as Eric Berry's poor skill to engage the tackler causes him to be leveled.  It raises an interesting question on how scouts remark and rave on Berry's ability to tackle. Do they really watch games or just repeat what they have heard or seen in clips.

By the way after the Auburn game, Tennessee dropped its Heisman Campaign for Berry rather quickly when it realized that he was more hype than good. For reference read here...http://bleacherreport.com/articles/266685-auburns-ben-tate-sends-eric-berrys-heisman-campaign-skidding

Now, I present this video of Tennessee vs. Ole Miss, for further edification on Berry's poor performance and inability to play the safety position. The video speaks for itself.  I implore you to watch all 5:15 minutes of the game.  Watch how he does not break down to tackle the on coming runner, watch how he gets pushed around by much larger players blocking downfield.  There are markers to signify where Berry is on the field. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISPX3lEUKFE

After the game the Ole Miss running back had this to say about Berry, "When I cut, I landed on (offensive guard John Jerry)," McCluster said. "It caught my balance. After that, it was one man to beat. I made a move and had two blockers. It was a lot of field. I saw No. 14 (Eric) Berry coming. I was looking dead in his eyes because I knew I was going to set him up. And I just burst to the sideline, one cut and he missed. I saw two defenders and I wasn't going to go down. They called me small all game. They hit me, and I came up a little short." http://olemiss.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1016073

Even Bruce Feldman of ESPN, who loves Berry and has been comparing him to NFL pro bowlers, tweeted about Berry's performance in the Ole Miss game

"McCluster even having Eric Berry grabbing at air today."

BFeldmanESPN (Bruce Feldman)

14 November 2009, 1:35 pm

Finally, if you were an NFL GM or team in need, you should or would be leery of drafting a player like this.  Evaluate your actual team needs and deficiencies.  Evaluate your current roster and past performance.  Be analytical.  Do not be old fashion with drafting the best player available idea.  Then again if you listen to the hype and want to feel good for a few big plays and cost your team significant dollars next year, and waste a top draft pick go ahead and select Berry.  Put your franchise back a few more years.  

In all honesty, Berry will be drafted early by someone.  Someone will believe that the kid will fit into their system as a game changer.  And for those who liken Eric Berry to Ed Reed be forewarned, although ESPN and commentators remark on how great Ed Reed is don't forget he gives up the big play more often than not.

In 2008, Ed Reed and the Ravens gave up:
(6) 40+ yard passing plays
(41) 20+ yard passing plays

That's the same number of 40+ yard passing plays that the Steelers have allowed over the last two years. And the Steelers only allowed (23) 20+ yard passing plays this year.

In 2007, Ed Reed (who went to the Pro Bowl) and the Ravens allowed (15) 40+ yard passing plays?! Giving up the deep bomb almost every game is good enough for a Pro Bowl spot?

Isn't a free safety supposed to be the last line of defense and stop the big play? Ed Reed isn't playing the position as I understand it too well.

Instead of Defensive Player of the Year, Ed Reed should get the Flashiest Interception Returner of the Year.   Also read, http://ravens24x7.blogspot.com/2009/09/ed-reeeeeedwhere-are-uuuuuuu.html