2007-08 NBA Preview: Atlantic Division

1) Boston Celtics

With Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen joining Paul Pierce, the Celtics have one of the most explosive lineups in the Eastern Conference—explosive enough that a trip to the Finals is within the realm of possibility.

As it stands, it doesn't look like chemistry will be a problem. That’s because Garnett and Allen have always been high-quality, low-maintenance, unselfish people.

In fact, Garnett’s most glaring weakness is his unselfishness and inability to take over important moments of important games. Teamed with Pierce and Allen, he'll have no problems giving up the spotlight down the stretch.

This isn't to say that the Celtics don’t have question marks, though.

Can Pierce, Allen, and Garnett stay injury free? Can Garnett produce in the clutch? Will Pierce be comfortable playing alongside a legit superstar for the first time? Will KG? Will the team be effective defensively?

The most important questions involve the center and point guard positions.

First, will Kendrick Perkins and his notable flaws hold the Celtics back? Can he become a more active defensive rebounder, and a more disciplined defender?

If Perkins can’t improve, the Celtics will be left with Scot Pollard or Garnett guarding an opponent’s best big man.

Pollard is an active defender but picks up fouls almost as much as he picks up hair-do’s. Garnett is a decent (but wildly overrated) defender who's better at blocking shots than guarding his man—and can get overpowered by the stronger bigs in the league.

At the point, the talented but inexperienced Rajon Rondo will be asked to set the offense. Garnett's court vision and patience should help the youngster immensely.

But will Rondo be turnover prone? And when he's left open by double-teams, will be able to hit jumpers?

If Eddie House is able to hit his shots, his presence will give Boston some versatility at the point—but House is nowhere near the defender Rondo is.

Rounding out the bench, James Posey is an aggressive defender with a nice jumper. But Posey is chronically out-of-shape, and looked washed-up during last season’s playoff run with the Heat.

Tony Allen has tremendous athleticism but little idea what to do with it. If Brian Scalabrine is hitting his jumpers, he can emerge as a useful backup. Leon Powe has a bright future but won't contribute much to the present.

The Celtics are probably one more year of experience for Rondo, one more effective defensive center, and one or two more versatile bench players away from being a true championship threat.

But if Rondo improves his shooting touch, Posey improves his work ethic, and Perkins improves period, the Celtics may extend their season into June.

If they can’t advance  past the first round, expect Doc Rivers to take the fall.

 

2) New Jersey Nets

Once again, the Nets' season will come down to the attributes of their Big Three:

Jason Kidd’s aging body but flawless mind, Richard Jefferson’s underrated skill set, and Vince Carter’s awesome athletic ability.

Unfortunately for New Jersey, Lawrence Frank has decided that Carter should take all the late-game shots.

Even though Kidd can’t shoot a jumper into the ocean, his ability to make clutch plays (and clutch shots) makes him a better option. The same can be said of Jefferson’s penchant for coming up big when the pressure is on.

Carter can be allowed to dominate the first three quarters if Frank sees fit, but Kidd and Jefferson have to be given the bulk of the responsibility in the closing minutes—when VC's turnovers and forced shots have killed New Jersey.

If healthy, Nenad Kristic is a finesse man who gets chumped on the glass and on the boards. His game, however, is perfectly suited to screen/rolls with Kidd, Carter, and Jefferson.

Jamal Magloire will bully around the weaklings of the NBA, but will disappear when the opponents push back. Given that Magloire is much more of an interior scorer than Kristic, the Nets might have the makings of a fairly versatile frontcourt.

If only either man could defend or rebound.

Jason Collins is a hard-working grunt off the bench. Darrell Armstrong’s defense and energy make him a better backup to Jason Kidd than is Marcus Williams. Boki Nachbar is a good outside shooter but a slow defender. Malik Allen will set screens, defend, and score off broken plays. Antoine Wright is underwhelming, and Bernard Robinson’s awareness hasn’t caught up to his potential.

As long as Kidd and Jefferson stay healthy, the Nets should be able to earn a low seed in the playoffs.

But unless Lawrence Frank puts the ball in Kidd and Jefferson’s hands, the Nets ceiling will continue to be the second round.

3) Toronto Raptors

Last season, the Raptors overachieved to capture a very high playoff seed. They were unprepared for playoff basketball, though, and were dumped by a mediocre Nets team.

Have they done enough to get over the hump?

The Raptors still don’t have the power players needed to win in the playoffs. The closest they come is Chris Bosh—whose moves originate mostly from the high post and include mostly turnarounds and baseline spins—and Joey Graham—who drives strong and can knock down jumpers but is still very raw.

Instead, the Raptors are almost exclusively a finesse team that relies on superior speed and size mismatches to create open jumpers.

Jorge Garbajosa and Andrea Bargnani are two examples. Both are 6'9" or taller and blessed with tremendous agility. Both excel in screen/rolls, both create matchup nightmares, and both do little else besides score.

Since Garbajosa is a tougher rebounder, a more willing and able passer, and a more crafty scorer, he may be better suited for the present than Bargnani. But Bargnani has more of an upside.

Either way, is it in the best interest of the Raptors to carry two virtual clones  on the roster?

T.J. Ford is ultra-quick, ultra-weak, and far too shot-happy to adequately lead a team—to say nothing of his nonexistent defense.

Jose Calderon has less quickness, but is a better decision maker and jump shooter.

Jason Kapono needs the right players to set up his sweetly-stroked three-point shot.

Anthony Parker is crafty and versatile and can create his own shot, move the ball, and defend.

Carlos Delfino has sticky fingers with the ball, and can’t function without it.

The Raptors still have enough to make the playoffs—but until the team gets more muscle, and better point guard play, they’ll be extinct well before June.

 

4) New York Knicks

The Knick circus rolls into the 2007-08 season with Zach Randolph as the latest high-priced, high-maintenance attraction.

Since Isiah Thomas has vowed to center the offense around Eddy Curry, it will be interesting to see whether Randolph stays happy with his number of touches.

Randolph does bring some intriguing possibilities to the Knicks offense. Thomas can run a series of cross and diagonal screens to set up Curry on either box (preferably the right) and Randolph on the opposing high post. Most defenses will need to double Curry, and having Randolph at a diagonal angle will achieve two things:

First, it will make it easier for Curry to pass to Randolph if the double comes from Randolph's man. Second, given the threat posed by Randolph from the high post, it will force most teams to bring their double teams from farther away.

With so much focus on Curry, the court will open up for David Lee, Renaldo Balkman, and Quentin Richardson on weakside cuts, and for Jamal Crawford off the drive.

All that said, the Knicks are deficient in nearly every aspect of the game.

New York can’t run complicated offensive sets because of Curry’s inability to pass out of double teams. Stephon Marbury had the best season of his career last year in terms of unselfishness and ball movement, and the Knicks were still inept.

Don't expect it to get any better in '07-'08.

Marbury, Crawford, Curry, Randolph, and Nate Robinson have no use on the court when the ball isn’t in their hands.

Aside from Malik Rose, Richardson, and Balkman, no Knick is an accomplished individual or team defender.

Aside from Lee and Richardson, no Knick is willing to rebound in heavy traffic.

If Jared Jeffries were two inches shorter, he wouldn’t even be a starter in the Developmental League.

While Lee is perfect in a sixth man role, his minutes will be cut by Randolph’s presence—or he'll be forced on the court as an out-of-position small forward.

Most importantly, while nobody questions the one-on-one talents of the Knick players, have any of them ever sacrificed for the benefit of a team?

Few of them excel in distributing the ball or moving without it—especially with Richardson always injured.

In fact, you can often tell whether the Knick offense is moving smoothly by the point totals and shooting percentages of Richardson and Balkman.

If those two are scoring, it means the Knicks are moving the ball. If not, it means the ball is stagnating in the hands of one or two players.

With an obvious phony like Isiah Thomas in charge, it's no wonder the Knicks often lack leadership. Isiah’s offseason legal mess only makes it that much harder for players to develop the necessary trust required to succeed in the NBA.

Imagine Zach Randolph runs into trouble again. How can he take any punishment dished by Thomas seriously...when Thomas has already been found by a court of law of to be a sleazy, lying hypocrite?

Maybe the Knicks have too much individual talent to butcher themselves out of a No. 8 seed. But with the salaries, expectations, and individual talent in New York, would that be any sort of accomplishment?

5) Philadelphia 76ers

While Philly’s post-Chris Webber/Allen Iverson surge last season was admirable, it doesn't mask the problems with the Sixer lineup.

On the bright side, Andre Iguodala will continue to grow into a superstar, and Andre Miller’s toughness, intelligence, and leadership will be extremely valuable to the baby Sixers.

While Miller’s defense has always been subpar, his ability to run an offense is exceptional.

Samuel Dalembert and Reggie Evans make Ben Wallace’s offensive game look like Tim Duncan's.

Willie Green and Rodney Carney are dynamic scorers, Kyle Korver is a streak shooter, and Louis Williams is a project. None of the four are accomplished defenders.

The biggest problems in Philly are the lack of accomplished big men and the lack of experience on the roster. If Green, Williams, and Carney fine-tune their games, if any of the Sixer big men develop, if Thaddeus Young, Derrick Byars, and Jason Smith play more like veterans than rookies...the Sixers may have a nucleus to build around.

For this year, Iguodala has to be Clark Kent if the Sixers want to make the playoffs.