Race for the Worst: NFL Teams Poised To Compete for No. 1 Pick
While most analysts are looking at the undefeated Colts or Saints and how the AFC and NFC Wild Card seeds are shaping up, I'd like to take a look on the opposite side of the spectrum.
Being a huge follower and evaluator of the NFL, my eyes are on the teams who are most definitely out of the playoff hunt and have been for a while.
The old Ricky Bobby saying, "If you ain't first, your last" can go both ways in the NFL. If you don't win the Super Bowl in the playoffs, you are quickly forgotten about in history. However if you don't make the playoffs and barely win any games, "If you are last, your first" is the quote to live by.
So, with that, let's take a look at the worst of the worst as they begin to do their best to gain draft position—and lose.
7. Washington Redskins (3-8)
Remaining Schedule: NO, @OAK, NYG, DAL, @SD
I hope that it can become more and more evident to power hungry owners that "buying" over-priced veterans can't win games.
The Redskins are old across the board along the offensive line, their front seven has only two young, non-injury prone players to build around, and their talented secondary gets beat on big plays nearly every week.
It should be a struggle to put up enough points with the mess that is the Redskins offense to compete with the Saints and Chargers. The Giants and Cowboys are both more talented than Washington, but home games against NFC East opponents is always sketchy at best. I'll say they win one of those two, but still finish with a disappointing record as they try to rebuild once again.
Projected Ending Record: 5-11
Projected Draft Pick: Jimmy Clausen: QB, Notre Dame (JR)
6. Kansas City Chiefs (3-8)
Remaining Schedule: DEN, BUF, CLE, @CIN, @DEN
Kansas City has played some competitive games this year, which should give Chiefs' fans hope for the coming Todd Haley years.
However, their offense's best player arrived two weeks ago, their running game is still shaky— albeit improved since the loss of LJ—and their defense can't stop anybody.
The Broncos are fighting for a playoff spot, so the Chiefs will likely lose both of them. Buffalo has been red hot with Fewell the new coach, and the Bengals have been tough to be all season long. I'll give them a win against the second worse team in football, but they shouldn't be happy with poor record this season.
Projected Ending Record: 4-12
Projected Draft Pick: Dez Bryant: WR, Oklahoma State
5. Detroit Lions (2-9)
Remaining Schedule: @CIN, @BAL, ARI, @SF, CHI
While the Lions had a rough season once again, they did win two more so far than a season ago, so that's a huge step up. And although Stafford has been wildly inconsistent, based on his play two weeks ago in that gutsy performance he looks like the leader they need.
Teams with talent who have rough seasons tend to finish out strong (see 2008 Bengals) as they try to rebound for the coming season. Games at Cincy and at Baltimore will be tough in consecutive weeks, but both have been beatable in recent weeks. Arizona will likely be a loss as they have caught fire against this season. San Fran and Chicago are two very winnable games, and I expect wins in at least one of them.
As I said before, the Lions have the talent to start making steps towards, dare I say, the playoffs next year, so a few more pieces is all they need to be competitive week in and week out.
Projected Ending Record: 4-12
Projected Draft Pick: Gerald McCoy: DT, Oklahoma (JR)
4. Oakland Raiders (3-8)
Remaining Schedule: @PIT, WASH, @DEN, @CLE, BAL
When will that Scrouge of a man finally learn the true meaning of building a team? The Raiders are a mess.
They let Jeff Garcia go early this year, only to replace JaMarcus Russell with a lesser version of him in Bruce Gradkowski. The running game, though loaded with talent, has no where to run to, and the defense is wildly inconsistent.
Playing at Pittsburgh, who needs to win out to make the playoffs, is a shoe-in loss. So is at Denver and, with Baltimore likely still in the playoff hunt by season's end, that's probably an "L" as well. Washington and Cleveland are both winnable games, but Washington is less of a mess than Oakland, and Cleveland may be able to win one more at home.
Projected Ending Record: 4-12
Projected Draft Pick: Taylor Mays: S, USC
3. Tampa Bay Bucs (1-10)
Remaining Schedule: @CAR, NYJ, @SEA, @NO, @ATL
While this may sound like the most unintelligent comment ever, the Bucs are a very competitive, one-loss team.
Now, while I stand by and love the Bill Parcell's quote "You're as good as your record says you are", hear me out. Since their bye week (Week 8), the Bucs are 1-3. They beat the Green Bay Packers, the NFL's top defense, by scoring 38 points. They lost at Miami and at Atlanta by a combined five points, and lost to the undefeated Saints.
Grant it they're not wins, but they aren't 2008 Detroit Lions' bad losses.
Carolina, New York, and Seattle are all very winnable games, as well as Atlanta late in the year if the Falcons are out of the playoff race. They should win two this year, which would give them two more than most experts predicted in the pre-season.
Projected Ending Record: 3-13
Projected Draft Pick: Ndamukong Suh: DT, Nebraska
2. Cleveland Browns (1-10)
Remaining Schedule: SD, PIT, @KC, OAK, JAC
It's disappointing to see how the Browns have fallen back flat on their face.
Just two seasons ago, they were back to being notable with Derek Anderson guiding them to the playoffs. Now, he's a backup to first round bust Brady Quinn, both of which could be out of a job come this off-season.
The Browns play two playoff contenders the next two weeks, so there's 0-2. At Kansas City is a hard place for any team to play, just ask the Steelers two weeks ago, so there's another loss. Oakland and Jacksonville both are winnable, and I'll give Mangini a win against the equally hopeless Raiders to be his last as the Browns coach.
Projected Ending Record: 2-14
Projected Draft Pick: Eric Berry: S, Tennessee (JR)
1. St. Louis Rams (1-10)
Remaining Schedule: @CHI, @TEN, HOU, @ARI, SF
I said it to start the regular season, and I'll stick by it. The Rams have about three or four legit NFL starters on their roster.
Outside of Stephen Jackson, Jamal Brown, Jason Smith, and OJ Atogwe, I don't know if I'd go after any other Rams if they were in free agency to be my starter.
Steve Spagnuolo inherited the bad team that was left for Jim Haslett a season ago, and the Rams may have the least talented team in the past 10 years. That's right, less talented than last years 0-16 Lions.
Playing three road games never spells well for an offense-less dome team, and Houston is likely a playoff contender. San Francisco looks to be their best and is their only chance for another win, but Alex Smith and company understand that they have a chance to compete next season, so they'll finish the season strong.
With the Rams needing help basically everywhere, they probably should start with quarterback. While I don't feel Bradford will be worthy of the top pick, he looks like he'll likely get over-picked in the 2010 draft. With teams like the Rams desperate enough, they might take that shot.
Projected Ending Record: 1-15
Projected Draft Pick: Sam Bradford: QB, Oklahoma
Again, check out www.NFLHouse.com for all great articles, and feel free to email me at EricG@nflhouse.com .
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