Chicago Bears Stats, We Don't Need No Stinkin' Stats! And Draft Issues

Different Game, Same Results

Once again the Chicago Bears find themselves on national TV and once again ended up being embarrassed by their opponent.  Thankfully the game didn’t end up with Jay Cutler covered in grass stains and mud; not because his offensive line protected him but because he was lucky enough to be playing on Astroturf.  Cutler was sacked 4 times (seemed like more), knocked to the ground 5 times and was hurried more times than Sammy Sosa can bleach his skin.  Poor strategy again reared its ugly head in Chicago on Sunday.  Not game strategy, but franchise strategy.

Why was Jay Cutler harassed so much by the Minnesota Vikings defense?  It’s not because the Vikings defense is that good (although it is very good) but because of failures and ineptitudes in the NFL draft.  The current offensive line couldn’t block a breeze let alone a sack-crazed, mullet sporting defensive end like Jared Allen and it showed.  Cutler never looked comfortable in the pocket, and I can’t blame him; it’s hard to get comfortable when you only have half a second to do so.  Double teams on Allen were just as ineffective as would have been a single blocker.  The double teams opened up the door for the other lineman and if you add a blitzing LB Cutler never had a chance.

Looking into the Bears draft woes brought up some interesting numbers.  The Bears had 63 total choices in the NFL draft from 2003-2009 (63 actual picks, including extra picks received and not including picks traded away).  The numbers are broken down into 4 categories; number of players chosen per position, ratio of players chosen by position (2 QB’s out of 4 choices would be a 50% ratio), ratio of players still with the team relative to the number of players selected of that position (2 QB selections, 1 still on team out of 4 choices would be a 25% ratio), and the ratio of picks still with the team relative to the total picks (2 QB selections, 1 still on team with four choices from the year before and four for the current year would be eight total draft picks with one successful pick, or a 12.5% ratio).

Dating back to 2003 the Bears have used the NFL draft to select 7 offensive linemen out of 63 picks, roughly about 11% of their picks.  That stat alone might make an outsider think “well, for one position on a team that isn’t that bad.”  The problem with that number is out of the 7 linemen selected only 2 are currently with the team: Chris Williams (2009) and Josh Beekman (2007).  This means that out of the linemen selected only 29% succeeded to the point of not being cut.  Two linemen out of 63 picks is a success rate of about 3%.  Olin Kreutz was drafted by the Bears (1998) and will more than likely retire as a Bear.  Unfortunately, his best years are well behind him and is now a shell of the dominant center he used to be.  In the past six years the Bears have picked 2 linemen to replace/refresh their starting five.  There was no center chosen to be groomed for Kreutz’s retirement, one guard whose performances have been shaky at best and one tackle with back issues severe enough to cost him his entire rookie season without playing a single down.

In contrast the Bears have chosen 13 defensive linemen since 2003 out of 63 picks, a position that is usually a strength of the team for about 20% of their total picks.  Out of those 13, only five remain on the team, or about an 8% success relative to all 63 picks and a 38% success rate for the DL position.  Ten picks were spent on WR’s, a definitive need for the Bears, for a pick ratio of 16%.  The success ratio of that ten was an 11% of total picks and a surprising 30% success out of WR’s chosen but two of the three players still on the team were chosen in last year’s draft thus making them unlikely to be cut.  Ignoring last year’s draft, since 2003 only Earl Bennett would be left out of seven WR’s drafted (note: Devin Hester is not included in this as he was drafted as a DB). 

The Bears draft record speaks for itself.  With few starters, even fewer Pro-Bowlers and absolutely nothing on the offensive line the result of the Minnesota game shouldn’t come as a surprise.  Bears GM Jerry Angelo’s failures are very quickly coming to light and are about as glaring as the holes in their line (the bad kind, not the give the ball to Forte for a TD kind).  Two players in six years of drafting on the team is unacceptable.  Furthermore, the two linemen on the team are much like the WR’s, chosen recently and unlikely to be cut; Williams with a rather large rookie contract as well.  The Bears ignorance of the offensive line renders the Cutler deal moo (you know, like a cow’s point of view, it’s ‘moo’).  Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, John Elway or even Sid Luckman would have the same results that recent Bears quarterbacks have had with no line to block them. 

The Bears have spent seven more total picks on defense than on offense (35 and 28, respectively).  That does sound like an even proportion looking at those numbers, but as you probably guessed, the success rate isn’t quite that high.  In fact, it proves that Chicago truly is a defensive town.  Out of those defensive picks, about 51% of them are still on the team.  On the offensive side, a paltry 32% of those picks are still on the team (9 out of 28) and none of the offensive players chosen between 2003 and 2006 are left.  Out of the 63 picks, 18 picks on the defensive side are still with the team for a total success ratio of about 29%.  On offense only nine picks have survived for about a 14% total success ratio.  Judging by the talent shown Sunday, one would imagine that percentage is going to get a little lower next year.  The Patriots, the model of an NFL franchise currently owe four of its five starting linemen from the NFL draft. 

Out of all 63 picks made by the Bears only 43% (27 players) remain on the team.  On the defensive side 29% of drafted players remained with the team; 14% on the offensive side of the ball.  Basically, every draft the Bears partake in more than half of the players selected will not be on the team long term or even at all.  If they are on defense, the pick has less than a one in three chance of staying on the team.  On the offensive side Mr. Angelo has a better chance of winning a free soda from a Pepsi cap than drafting a successful offensive player.

If the Bears intend to keep Angelo as their GM it’s about time that someone up at Halas Hall hire someone who knows a little something about offense (note: this person’s name cannot rhyme with Juan Burner) who can help draft more proficiently, thusly improving the chances of Cutler not getting Rex’d or Orton’d out of town.  If the Bears increased their output from Cutler, wins will follow.  When wins follow, fans such as myself can stop writing “Brooks was here” on our ceilings and step off the stool (the sitting on kind, not the feces kind).