Biggest X-Factor for Every 2022 NBA Play-In Team

The eight NBA teams that reached the 2022 play-in tournament come from all walks of basketball life, but they all share a common thread: an X-factor who could well decide their play-in fate.

Before identifying the X-factor from all eight clubs, we first must establish what exactly that is.

Chances are, you have at least a fuzzy familiarity with the term on a know-it-when-you-see-it basis. Let's get a pinch more specific before digging in here, though.

Healthy superstars are out of the discussion. So are players who won't be participating in the tournament. Otherwise, everyone else is on the table.

Let's spotlight the non-superstar player most likely to swing his team's fortune in one direction or the other.

Atlanta Hawks: De'Andre Hunter

Brett Davis/Associated Press

The Atlanta Hawks always lean on De'Andre Hunter to plug as many leaks in their 26th-ranked defense as possible. However, they might be equally dependent on his offense in the play-in tournament to withstand what could be a lengthy injury report.

John Collins, who pumped in Atlanta's second-most points per game, hasn't suited up since March 11 due to foot and finger injuries. Sparkplug sub Lou Williams missed the last three contests with a back problem. Bogdan Bogdanovic, the Hawks' No. 3 scorer, is playing through knee pain.

For a squad that sometimes struggles to find scoring from players not named Trae Young, that could be a mountain of offense to replace on the fly.

There are nights when Hunter can answer that call and others in which he looks incapable of delivering. To that end, he managed 22 points on 13 field-goal attempts in the regular-season finale but had just 12 points on 4-of-20 shooting across the prior two games combined.

If Hunter's three-ball is in a good place, it can put Atlanta's entire attack in the same. If he can keep the offense going while also capably defending Miles Bridges and Kelly Oubre Jr. (and then Kevin Durant, Caris LeVert or Lauri Markkanen in the next contest), Hunter could prove to be the Hawks' ticket to the actual postseason.

Brooklyn Nets: Bruce Brown

Nathaniel S. Butler/Getty Images

Most Brooklyn Nets games are races to 115-plus points, which makes sense for a few reasons.

First, any roster that follows the lead of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving is bound to be electric on offense. Second, this group wasn't built to grind out games defensively, and if Ben Simmons ever surfaces to save the club's 20th-ranked defense, it won't happen before the first round (at least).

That makes it tempting to target a third scorer here, so we did.

Now, third scorer isn't exactly the first thing that comes to mind when considering the many labels worn by the versatile Bruce Brown. Yet since the start of March, that's exactly where he lands on the Nets, with his 14.7 points per game trailing only the per-game contributions of Durant and Irving. On a related note, Brown also trails only that dynamic duo in raw plus/minus (plus-5.1 points per game) over that span.

Brown doesn't need to go for 18-plus points (as he has in three of his last five contests) to make a major impact. He plays a truly positionless game at both ends of the court, and on Tuesday night against Cleveland, he could find himself guarding everyone from Darius Garland to Evan Mobley.

Brown's challenge is not a being a zero on offense.

If he's hitting his outside shots, the Nets are almost certainly advancing. If not, though, he can fill in cracks as a screen-setter, off-ball cutter and above-the-rim finisher.

Charlotte Hornets: Miles Bridges

Michael Reaves/Getty Images

With no superstar on the roster, the Charlotte Hornets aren't hurting for acceptable answers here.

LaMelo Ball could qualify, since he almost certainly needs to produce for Buzz City to make any kind of noise during the play-in tournament. P.J. Washington might best fit with what fans picture in an X-factor since he is good in a lot of areas but great in none. Terry Rozier is an option as an ignitable scorer. Kelly Oubre Jr. is another with Gordon Hayward back on the shelf.

So, why Miles Bridges? A few reasons.

First, Bridges had the greatest impact on their success during the regular season. The Hornets were 6.2 points better per 100 possessions with him than without, the highest net differential of anyone on the team.

Second, he is streaking into the postseason like he's putting together his own Old School reboot. He went for 20-plus points in seven of the team's final nine regular-season outings, and since March 1, he is averaging 20.9 points, 6.2 rebounds and 4.2 assists to go along with a blistering 52.3/40.4/80.5 shooting slash.

Cleveland Cavaliers: Evan Mobley

Jason Miller/Getty Images

The Cleveland Cavaliers haven't exactly taken the cautious route with freshman phenom Evan Mobley, who paced them in starts (69) and ranked second in average floor time (33.8 minutes per game). Still, they might have to lean even more than usual on the young 7-footer given the increasing likelihood that All-Star center Jarrett Allen can't give it a go.

Allen suffered a fractured finger March 6 and hasn't suited up since. Although he hasn't been officially ruled out for the play-in tournament, there is "pessimism" about his availability Tuesday night, per Cleveland.com's Chris Fedor. A source told Fedor it's "unrealistic" for Allen to return, though they wouldn't entirely rule it out due to "Allen's extreme competitiveness level."

If Allen can't go—or is rusty if he can—the Cavaliers will need Mobley to hold their frontcourt together at both ends. In addition to his usual defensive versatility and face-up offense, he'll also have to mimic Allen's rim protection and point-blank finishing.

Mobley has the two-way talent to pull that off, but replacing an All-Star center is as tricky as it sounds. The Cavs went 7-11 with a minus-2.7 net rating down the stretch without Allen.

Los Angeles Clippers: Reggie Jackson

Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images

X-factors are often unpredictable, and perhaps no other player listed here better wears that label than Reggie Jackson.

His big nights are enormous, and when he has it rolling, he can render opposing defenses powerless against him. He scored 25-plus points 11 different times this season, and he shot at least 50 percent from the field in eight of those contests. The Clippers, who went 42-40, were 7-4 when Jackson had 25-plus and 16-7 when he netted at least 20.

L.A. could be searching for support scoring Tuesday. Kawhi Leonard looks like the longest of long shots to play, and Norman Powell logged all of 45 minutes after the All-Star break while missing nearly two months with a fractured bone in his left foot. L.A.'s internal question marks aside, the Minnesota Timberwolves also boast the league's seventh-best offense, so the Clippers could need to put up numbers in order to keep pace.

Jackson has delivered under the bright lights before. He scored at least 20 points in nine playoff games just last season, helping the Clippers secure their first-ever conference finals berth in the process. Since then, though, it's been more volume (16.8 points per game) than efficiency (39.2/32.6/84.7), which is not at all a winning formula for L.A.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards

Jordan Johnson/Getty Images

D'Angelo Russell feels like he should be the choice here. He checks off the unpredictability box, and the Minnesota Timberwolves rarely waste one of his good nights. He went for 20-plus points 27 times this season; Minnesota won 20 of those contests.

However, we're going with Anthony Edwards here. Because if he continues leveling up, that changes everything for this franchise.

Edwards' flashes of stardom are already evident (nine outings of 30-plus points this season), but so are the occasional growing pains. On some nights, he just can't find his footing. He's only 20 years old. It happens.

But the play-in format forces everyone to immediately put their best foot forward. If Edwards does that, both he and the Timberwolves can change how they're seen around the Association.

If he dominates both ends—he has the tools and talent to do it—then he can rocket up from an ascending star to an established one and take Minnesota up the pecking order with him.

New Orleans Pelicans: Herbert Jones

Chris Elise/Getty Images

Tasking a first-year player—let alone a second-round pick—with X-factor duties is no small task. But the New Orleans Pelicans have learned all season that Herbert Jones isn't your typical rookie.

The 23-year-old, who got garbage-time minutes on opening night, scored a starting gig in the team's second outing and essentially kept it ever since. He wound up pacing the Pels in total minutes (2,335) and emerged as the primary piece of their defensive puzzle.

Speaking of defense, New Orleans followed his lead on that end and sneakily jumped from 22nd in efficiency prior to the All-Star break to ninth afterward.

The Pelicans don't have enough net-shredders to win with offense alone. A healthy Zion Williamson could change that, but who sees him suddenly making his season debut during the play-in? If he doesn't, they'll need to maintain this level of defensive execution if they hope claw out two victories and advance.

The challenge awaiting Jones is different. His defense already feels like a given, but his offense is much more hit and miss. He'll need to leak out for as many transition buckets as possible and hope that his cooling three-ball (35.8 percent before the All-Star break, 30.2 percent after) re-ignites in time for him not to spoil the Pelicans' half-court spacing.

San Antonio Spurs: Lonnie Walker IV

Michael Gonzales/Getty Images

The San Antonio Spurs are in the middle of a youth movement, so just about anyone on the roster would qualify for this exercise. Well, anyone other than All-Star guard Dejounte Murray, at least.

Among the Alamo City's many up-and-comers, though, Lonnie Walker IV still stands out as the most intriguing (and potentially impactful) X-factor.

Watch the right handful of San Antonio games, and you'll come away convinced Walker is a rising star.

His aerial acrobatics and fiery (albeit streaky) outside shot give him one of those skill profiles where he wouldn't look out of place in either the slam dunk or three-point contests. Catch him when both elements are clicking, and you're in for a show. He had a six-game stretch from late February to early March where he averaged 22.5 points while hitting 52 percent of his field-goal attempts and 42.5 percent of his triples.

Walker has been dealing with a back injury as of late, but he did sandwich a 24-point outburst in between a pair of absences to end the season. He also scored a total of 32 points in his four games prior, so you never really know what you're going to get.

Still, San Antonio's path to consecutive win-or-go-home triumphs probably features Walker at his best.

Statistics used courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted.

Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.