Predicting Each MLB Team's Most Valuable Player in 2022
Love them or hate them, advanced metrics like wins above replacement (WAR) are here to stay in today's MLB conversation.
The start of each new MLB season brings with it a wave of forward-looking content, but rather than picking the award winners or postseason matchups, we've decided to lean into analytics by predicting who will lead each team in WAR during the 2022 season.
For a team like the Washington Nationals, the choice was easy (Juan Soto), but most clubs had at least a handful of viable options.
There will always be the unexpected breakout that throws a wrench into things—Mike Yastrzemski in 2020 or Cedric Mullins in 2021—but what follows is our best guess at each MLB team's WAR leader in 2022.
AL East
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Baltimore Orioles: CF Cedric Mullins
Mullins was a 5.7-WAR player last season during a breakout year when he became the first 30-homer, 30-steal player in Orioles history. Even with some regression, the 27-year-old still has a great chance of being the team's most valuable player, especially if top prospect Adley Rutschman spends part of the year in the minors.
Boston Red Sox: 3B Rafael Devers
Still only 25 years old, Devers has already developed into one of the game's elite offensive players, coming off a year in which he posted a 131 OPS+ with 38 home runs and 113 RBI in a 3.5-WAR season. Enrique Hernandez (4.9 WAR), Xander Bogaerts (4.9 WAR) and Nathan Eovaldi (4.5 WAR) all bested him in WAR a year ago, but he's still capable of another step forward, even if he's a below-average defender at the hot corner.
New York Yankees: RHP Gerrit Cole
Both in terms of on-field value and importance to the roster, Cole tops the list for a Yankees team still sorting out the starting rotation behind him. The $324 million man went 16-8 with a 3.23 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 243 strikeouts in 181.1 innings while racking up 5.7 WAR last year to finish second in AL Cy Young voting, and the Yankees are banking on more of the same.
Tampa Bay Rays: SS Wander Franco
It took Franco just 70 games to tally 3.5 WAR last year, which was good for the fifth-highest total on a Rays team that won 100 games. The 21-year-old looks the part of a future superstar, and he's already off to an 11-for-20 start at the plate this year. A 5-WAR showing might be his floor in his first full season in the big leagues.
Toronto Blue Jays: SS Bo Bichette
Even with an MLB-leading 24 errors last season, Bichette was still a 5.9-WAR player. He spent time in the offseason working on his glove with Troy Tulowitzki, and if he can take a step forward in that area, there is no reason he can't be one of the game's elite players after posting a 120 OPS+ with 30 doubles, 29 home runs, 102 RBI, 121 runs, 25 steals and an AL-leading 191 hits.
AL Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox: CF Luis Robert
Robert entered the year having played 124 games over the past two seasons, and during that time, he hit .294/.346/.512 for a 132 OPS+ with 24 home runs, 15 steals and 5.4 WAR. As long as he can stay healthy after missing a significant chunk of the 2021 season with a hip flexor strain, he should find himself squarely in the AL MVP conversation when the season concludes.
Cleveland Guardians: 3B Jose Ramirez
Now that questions of whether Ramirez will make it through the entire season without being traded have been erased by a five-year, $124 million extension, this one is a no-brainer. Since his first season as an everyday player in 2016, Ramirez has racked up 31.6 WAR, a total that trails only Mookie Betts (41.6), Mike Trout (38.9), Max Scherzer (34.6) and Nolan Arenado (31.8) during that span.
Detroit Tigers: SS Javier Baez
The Tigers gave Baez a six-year, $140 million contract to help jump-start the transition from rebuilding to contending. Despite his lack of on-base ability and high strikeout total, he is still a well-rounded player who provides power, speed and elite defense up the middle, and he already has a pair of 6-WAR seasons to his credit from his time with the Chicago Cubs.
Kansas City Royals: 3B Bobby Witt Jr.
The No. 2 overall pick in the 2019 draft, Witt hit .290/.361/.576 with 35 doubles, 33 home runs and 29 steals between Double-A and Triple-A last year. He won the starting third base job during spring training after hitting .406/.441/.781 with three doubles and three home runs, and there's an easy case to be made that he's immediately the most talented player on the Kansas City roster.
Minnesota Twins: CF Byron Buxton
Even if he only plays 100 games, Buxton could easily end up leading the Twins in WAR this season. The 28-year-old posted a 172 OPS+ with 42 extra-base hits and 2.1 WAR in 39 games last year, and he has already homered three times in five games after a huge spring training. Few players in the sport possess his combination of power, speed and defense.
AL West
3 of 6
Houston Astros: RF Kyle Tucker
Tucker enjoyed a breakout season last year when he logged a 147 OPS+ with 37 doubles and 30 home runs. He also tallied 10 DRS in the outfield and stole 14 bases on his way to a 5.7-WAR season, and his five-tool talents have put him in a prime position to be the future face of the franchise in Houston.
Los Angeles Angels: RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani
Can Ohtani hold off a healthy Mike Trout to lead the Angels in WAR? The two-way superstar led all of baseball with 9.0 WAR last season, splitting his value fairly evenly between hitting (4.9) and pitching (4.1), and while he is off to a slow start at the plate, he struck out nine batters and allowed only one run in 4.2 innings in his first start of the year.
Oakland Athletics: C Sean Murphy
Six of the top 10 players in WAR from last year's Athletics roster are now playing elsewhere, including team leaders Matt Olson (5.8) and Chris Bassitt (4.0), and a seventh in Frankie Montas could be on his way out the door. After slugging 23 doubles and 17 home runs while winning a Gold Glove last year, Murphy is as good a pick as any from what's left of the roster.
Seattle Mariners: SS J.P. Crawford
A top prospect throughout his time in the Philadelphia Phillies system, Crawford finally broke out in his age-26 campaign, posting a 102 OPS+ with 37 doubles while again playing Gold Glove-caliber defense in a 3.8-WAR season. The M's rewarded him with a five-year, $51 million extension, and he's more than capable of being the most valuable player on an up-and-coming roster.
Texas Rangers: 2B Marcus Semien
Shortstop Corey Seager got the bigger contract, due in part to the fact that he's four years younger, but it was Semien who had the far superior 2021 season among the Rangers' high-priced offseason additions. The 31-year-old is off to a rocky start, but after posting a 130 OPS+ with 45 home runs and 7.3 WAR a year ago, the smart money is on him turning things around.
NL East
4 of 6
Atlanta Braves: 1B Matt Olson
With Ronald Acuna Jr. expected to miss at least the first month of the season, Olson has a head start on leading the defending champions in WAR in his first year with the team. The 28-year-old had his best season to date last year, finishing with a 153 OPS+ and 39 home runs to check in eighth in AL MVP balloting. Aside from his power production, he is also one of the game's elite defensive first basemen, as evidenced by his two Gold Glove awards.
Miami Marlins: 2B Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Chisholm just scratched the surface of his dynamic offensive potential during an 18-homer, 23-steal rookie season in 2021. The next step in his development will be improving on a .303 on-base percentage and 28.6 percent strikeout rate, and at 24 years old with exciting raw tools across the board, he has the potential to be the face of the franchise in Miami.
New York Mets: SS Francisco Lindor
Lindor did not have the debut Mets fans were hoping for last year, but he still finished fifth on the team with 3.1 WAR in 125 games. He also rounded into form after the All-Star break with an .813 OPS during the second half and an .895 OPS with nine home runs and 25 RBI in September. A return to the MVP-caliber production he was accustomed to in Cleveland is very possible.
Philadelphia Phillies: RF Bryce Harper
It's tough to pick against the reigning NL MVP, especially considering newcomers Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber have limited overall value as a result of their defensive shortcomings. Ace Zack Wheeler was actually the team leader a year ago, and he in fact led all pitchers with 7.5 WAR, but that will be a difficult number to duplicate.
Washington Nationals: RF Juan Soto
Easiest pick of all 30 teams? Probably, as the gutted Nationals roster has little in the way of threats to Soto's supremacy as long as he stays healthy. Nelson Cruz and Josh Bell are solid offensive players, but neither is a real threat for a 5-WAR season, and the pitching is devoid of anything resembling an elite player.
NL Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs: RF Seiya Suzuki
A superstar in Japan, where he hit .317/.433/.636 with 38 home runs and nearly as many walks (88) as strikeouts (89) last year, Suzuki signed a massive five-year, $85 million deal to take over as the Cubs starting right fielder. A potential centerpiece of their retooling efforts, he has looked right at home in his first taste of MLB action, including a two-homer game Tuesday.
Cincinnati Reds: RHP Tyler Mahle
One of the most underrated pitchers in baseball, Mahle went 13-6 with a 3.75 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 210 strikeouts in 180 innings last season, good for 5.1 WAR. The 27-year-old has steadily improved over the last three years, and he has looked sharp once again through his first two starts of 2022.
Milwaukee Brewers: RHP Corbin Burnes
With Jacob deGrom on the shelf, there's a case to be made that Burnes is the best pitcher in baseball right now. The 27-year-old won NL Cy Young honors with a 2.43 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 234 strikeouts in 167 innings last year, and his stuff is electric. It's worth noting that Brandon Woodruff actually matched his 5.7 WAR last year, so don't count him out as a potential WAR leader as well.
Pittsburgh Pirates: CF Bryan Reynolds
Is this the year Ke'Bryan Hayes takes a massive step forward offensively? If he does, he'll give Reynolds a serious run for his money thanks to his already-elite defense at third base. However, until he proves he's capable of reaching that next gear, Reynolds is the pick after hitting .302/.390/.522 with 67 extra-base hits and 6.0 WAR a year ago.
St. Louis Cardinals: 3B Nolan Arenado
In his first season with the Cardinals, Arenado proved he can produce away from Coors Field, posting a 121 OPS+ with 34 doubles, 34 home runs and 105 RBI while winning his ninth straight Gold Glove in a 4.1-WAR season. Young outfielder Tyler O'Neill (6.3 WAR) led the team a year ago, and Paul Goldschmidt is always a threat, but Arenado is the pick.
NL West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks: 2B Ketel Marte
Injuries limited Marte to 90 games last year, but he still finished fifth on the D-backs roster in WAR. The 28-year-old had a 143 OPS+ with 44 extra-base hits in 374 plate appearances, and he was rewarded with a five-year, $76 million extension during spring training. He's the only clear star on a largely anonymous Arizona roster.
Colorado Rockies: 3B Ryan McMahon
After starting his career at first base and then shifting to second base, McMahon is now poised to be the everyday third baseman for the Rockies for years to come after signing a six-year, $70 million extension. The 27-year-old is an elite defender, and he tallied 32 doubles, 23 home runs and 4.0 WAR in 151 games. Can he hold off newcomer Kris Bryant for the WAR lead?
Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Walker Buehler
There are at least half a dozen viable candidates on the Dodgers roster, including free-agent-to-be Trea Turner and 2018 AL MVP winner Mookie Betts, but we'll focus on the mound, where Buehler is now the ace of the staff. The 27-year-old had a 2.47 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 212 strikeouts in 207.2 innings last year to finish fourth in Cy Young voting, and his 6.6 WAR tied for second among all pitchers.
San Diego Padres: 2B Jake Cronenworth
With Fernando Tatis Jr. sidelined for half the season, fellow infielders Manny Machado and Cronenworth would seem to be the leading candidates for the Padres, unless one of their pitchers has a huge season. The versatile Cronenworth had a 122 OPS+ with 61 extra-base hits and 4.8 WAR last year while earning his first All-Star selection.
San Francisco Giants: RHP Logan Webb
Webb was a revelation for the Giants during the second half last season with a 2.71 ERA in 96.1 innings over the final two-plus months, and he continued to impress in October. The 25-year-old took the ball on Opening Day this year, and a full season of what we saw after the All-Star break last year would put him right in the thick of the NL Cy Young race.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference.
