Men's Final Four 2022: Full Breakdown, Predictions and Stars to Watch
In many ways, the 2022 men's NCAA tournament has been the most chaotic, unpredictable dance ever. In addition to Saint Peter's shocking the world by making the Elite Eight as a No. 15 seed, No. 11 seeds won a combined total of five games, the ACC overcame a woeful regular season to win more games than any other conference, and four of some of the most popular picks to win it all—Gonzaga, Arizona, Kentucky and Baylor—didn't even reach the Elite Eight.
And yet, from the wreckage of the past two weeks, a Final Four full of some of the top programs in the sport has somehow emerged.
Since the start of the 2010-11 season, only Gonzaga has won more games (367) than Kansas (351). Duke is No. 3 on that list, with Villanova and North Carolina checking in at No. 6 and No. 7, respectively.
These four programs have combined for 17 national championships, nine of which have come since the turn of the century.
Getting the occasional Butler, VCU, Wichita State or Loyola Chicago into the Final Four is fun, but this should be one of the greatest Final Fours ever.
What a way to send Mike Krzyzewski into the land of retirement, right?
To help you best prepare for the final weekend of this season, we've put together a comprehensive breakdown of the four teams still standing.
We'll take a look at how they got here, how they can keep winning, the biggest storylines for each team, the brightest stars, the underrated guys to watch out for and, of course, predictions.
Duke Blue Devils
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Record: 32-6, No. 2 seed in West Region
Path to Final Four: 78-61 vs. No. 15 Cal State Fullerton, 85-76 vs. No. 7 Michigan State, 78-73 vs. No. 3 Texas Tech, 78-69 vs. No. 4 Arkansas
Biggest Strengths: No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency; good at defending without fouling
Biggest Weaknesses: Outside the top 200 in defensive rebounding; outside the top 300 in defensive turnover percentage
How They Got Here
Duke's offense is talented enough to make everything look effortless, but the Blue Devils certainly did not make things look easy en route to New Orleans.
In the opener against Cal State Fullerton, they jumped out to a 17-4 lead, but that was still a single-digit game early in the second half. In the second round against Michigan State, Duke trailed by five with five minutes to go before catching fire down the stretch. The Blue Devils also trailed by four with under nine minutes to go against Texas Tech in the Sweet 16 before scoring on nearly every possession the rest of the way.
Even in the Elite Eight matchup with Arkansas in which Duke never trailed in the final 34 minutes, it let the Razorbacks trim a 12-point halftime lead down to just five before putting the game out of reach.
In every game, though, there was (at least) one stretch of five-to-eight minutes in which the entire world was reminded: Oh yeah, Duke has way more NBA talent than every team it faces.
Biggest Regular-Season "What If?"
What if they hadn't gotten stomped by North Carolina in the regular-season finale?
The Blue Devils did turn around and lose to a red-hot Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game, but that 94-81 loss against their archrivals on what was supposed to be a night to celebrate Coach K's career seemed to light a fire under these guys.
And, frankly, the lack of said fire long felt like the only reason they let games slip away during the regular season. In the losses to Miami, Florida State and Virginia, Duke seemed to be going through the motions, either not much caring about a few regular-season losses or simply believing that the amount of talent on the roster would eventually win the day.
Getting embarrassed by the Tar Heels, however, appears to have been just what the doctor ordered. Duke has played with a lot of toughness since then, scoring almost at will against two very good defenses this past week.
Kansas Jayhawks
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Record: 32-6, No. 1 seed in Midwest Region
Path to Final Four: 83-56 vs. No. 16 Texas Southern, 79-72 vs. No. 9 Creighton, 66-61 vs. No. 4 Providence, 76-50 vs. No. 10 Miami
Biggest Strengths: Opponents shoot 29.6 percent from three on the season; great offensive rebounding led by David McCormack
Biggest Weaknesses: Struggles to defend driving guards; typically breaks even at best in turnovers and free throws
How They Got Here
Scoring wings Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun have gotten most of the national attention Kansas has received this season, and lead guard Remy Martin has stepped into the spotlight thus far in the tournament.
But where Kansas is really getting the job done in the Dance is in the paint.
The Jayhawks overpowered Texas Southern in the opener, finishing plus-10 on the glass and holding the Tigers to 36.4 percent on two-point attempts. With Creighton big man Ryan Kalkbrenner out with a knee injury, Kansas was even more dominant down low against the Bluejays, going plus-18 in rebound margin while Creighton shot 9-of-31 (29.0 percent) inside the arc.
In the Sweet 16 against Providence, Kansas merely had four more rebounds than the Friars, but it did block 11 shots. And then in the Elite Eight win over Miami, it was all about that glass once again, with the Jayhawks out-rebounding the Hurricanes by 16 in the second half of what devolved into a blowout.
The very good frontcourts of Arizona, Gonzaga, Purdue and others all got bounced before the Elite Eight, but perhaps the Jayhawks can ride that paint prowess to a national championship.
Biggest Regular-Season "What If?"
What if Remy Martin had stayed healthy?
Heading into the season, the transfer from Arizona State was expected to be Kansas' go-to guy. Martin averaged better than 19 points per game in each of the past two years before riding the transfer portal to Lawrence. But he averaged just 10.7 points through his first 11 games before missing the first of 10 games between January and February.
And with Martin either out or limited throughout Big 12 play, Jalen Wilson blossomed into a star.
Wilson was suspended for the first three games of the season following a DUI arrest, and he didn't make much of an impact in his first eight games with Martin still in the picture (5.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG). In his last 25 games played, though, Wilson has averaged better than 13 points per game with six double-doubles and 27 steals.
Agbaji is the All-American, but you could easily argue that Wilson has been most important to Kansas' success. And that may not be the case if Martin had played the full season. His absence forced Wilson to step into a more assertive role, which he has maintained in a big way even with Martin back.
North Carolina Tar Heels
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Record: 28-9, No. 8 seed in East Region
Path to Final Four: 95-63 vs. No. 9 Marquette, 93-86 (OT) vs. No. 1 Baylor, 73-66 vs. No. 4 UCLA, 69-49 vs. No. 15 Saint Peter's
Biggest Strengths: No. 2 in defensive rebound percentage; scoring almost at will over the past month
Biggest Weaknesses: No. 349 in defensive turnover percentage; allowed at least 38 percent three-point shooting in 16 games, including all nine losses
How They Got Here
The Tar Heels have been insatiable on offense.
Armando Bacot has recorded a double-double in each of their four games played, including going for 20 points and 22 rebounds in the Elite Eight win over Saint Peter's. Brady Manek scored 54 points just in the first two games against Marquette and Baylor and has shot 16-of-34 from three-point range thus far in the dance. Caleb Love torched Marquette for 23 and UCLA for 30. RJ Davis was massive with 30 of his own against Baylor.
As long as three of those four guys show up in a big way, it feels like there's no way you're holding North Carolina below 1.15 points per possession.
And while that offense has been clicking, the defense has benefited from quite a bit of three-point luck. Opponents have shot 26-of-98 against a defense that allowed 38.3 percent in its final 13 games before the tournament began. That is shockingly similar to the turn of fate UCLA had in its run to the Final Four last year—23-of-93 compared to 40.4 percent in the 14 games leading up to the tournament.
If we're lucky, perhaps this team's Final Four game will also come down to an overtime buzzer-beater.
Biggest Regular-Season "What If?"
What if Dawson Garcia hadn't left the program in late January?
At the time of Garcia's departure, UNC was 12-6 and had just suffered consecutive losses by embarrassing margins to Miami and Wake Forest. By no means was the reason for the team's struggles, but he left right at the point in the season where the Tar Heels were trying to figure out what they could do to maximize their potential—very similar to the timing of Rasheed Sulaimon's departure from Duke in January 2015, a little over two months before they went on to win it all with a shorter rotation.
And when Garcia left, Brady Manek really started to shine.
Up until that point, Garcia, Manek and Armando Bacot were more or less combining for 80 minutes at the 4 and the 5, with Garcia starting for most of November and December. But when Garcia left, the former Oklahoma transfer took over as the full-time stretch 4 and became a much more consistent scoring force.
The rest, as they say, is history. Manek was held to single digits in four of UNC's first five losses, but he has averaged 21.5 thus far in the dance.
Villanova Wildcats
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Record: 30-7, No. 2 seed in South Region
Path to Final Four: 80-60 vs. No. 15 Delaware, 71-61 vs. No. 7 Ohio State, 63-55 vs. No. 11 Michigan, 50-44 vs. No. 5 Houston
Biggest Strengths: Best free-throw shooting team in NCAA history at 83.0 percent (current record is 82.2 percent set by Harvard in 1983-84); takes and makes a ton of threes
Biggest Weaknesses: Worst two-point offense (49.9 percent) Villanova has had since becoming so three-point reliant in 2013-14; minimal depth that just gotten even shallower
How They Got Here
Suffice it to say, this isn't the 2015-16 or 2017-18 Villanova team that rained threes en route to a title. The Wildcats did shoot 13-of-28 in the opener against Delaware, but they have made an uncharacteristic 22-of-74 (29.7 percent) since then.
Rather, this team has gotten the job done on the defensive end and at the charity stripe.
On the defensive front, Villanova held Ohio State, Michigan and Houston—three offenses that all rank in the top 25 in adjusted offensive efficiency on KenPom.com—to 53.3 points and a combined field-goal percentage of 36.8. The Wildcats are only averaging 5.0 steals and 2.3 blocks per game, but I'm not sure there has been an easy bucket made against this team since before the Big East tournament began.
And on the free-throw front, Villanova is 53-of-59 (89.8 percent) while opponents are sitting at 35-of-55 (63.6 percent). Against Ohio State and Houston, the difference in made free throws was almost exactly the final margin on the scoreboard. Villanova was a perfect 15-of-15 in the Elite Eight victory over the Cougars.
Biggest Regular-Season "What If?"
What if the Wildcats hadn't played a ridiculously difficult nonconference schedule?
They played at UCLA on the fourth day of the regular season. They faced Tennessee and Purdue on back-to-back days in Connecticut a week after that game against the Bruins. And then in early December, they took on Syracuse at Madison Square Garden and played a road game against reigning national champion Baylor five days later.
Syracuse ended up not being very good this season, but that's five games away from home (two true road; three neutral) in a span of four weeks against teams that opened the season at No. 5, No. 6, No. 7, No. 13 and No. 42 in the KenPom rankings.
It's the type of nonconference schedule you expect to see from a team like Long Beach State, but this was the reigning Big East regular-season champ going out of its way to prove itself early and often. Villanova ended up losing three of those five games, with the one against Baylor getting particularly out of hand, but those early challenges helped prepare it for a tough Big East slate, as well as the NCAA tournament.
Biggest Storylines
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Duke's Biggest Storyline: The GOAT Goes for Title No. 6
You may have heard that Mike Krzyzewski is retiring. Every other storyline pales in comparison to the all-time leader in wins (1,202) and the new all-time leader in Final Fours (13) attempting to go out on top in his final Dance. It has already been an incredible season for a Duke team that missed last year's tourney with a 13-11 record, but there just might be a storybook ending in New Orleans.
Kansas' Biggest Storyline: Remy Martin on Bourbon Street
Martin missed Kansas' first seven games of February and scored a total of 13 points in his first five games back on the floor. But the Jayhawks' "backup" point guard has averaged 16.8 points and 3.3 assists in 25.3 minutes played thus far in the tournament. Martin was expected to be Kansas' leading scorer when he transferred from Arizona State, and its chances of winning it all are much higher if he continues to shine.
North Carolina's Biggest Storyline: The Newbie Coach
North Carolina has been here plenty of times before. Even Hubert Davis has been, once as a player and twice as an assistant. But this will be the first-year head coach's first Final Four at the helm. Compare that to 13 for Mike Krzyzewski and four each for Jay Wright and Bill Self, and Davis is clearly the low man on the coaching hierarchy in New Orleans. Heck, Coach K has lost more NCAA tournament games (30) than Davis has total wins in his career (28). It would be a massive upset from a coaching perspective.
Villanova's Biggest Storyline: Justin Moore's Torn Achilles
The whole "Villanova trying to win it all for the third time in six tournaments" storyline is still a huge one, but it took a back seat to a major injury late in the Elite Eight win over Houston. Any injury would have been a big problem for a Villanova team that really only plays six guys, but losing Moore is especially painful. He doesn't get as much national attention as Collin Gillespie, but he trails only Gillespie in points and assists, is second in steals and ranks third among Wildcats in rebounds.
Stars to Watch
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Ochai Agbaji, Kansas
Tournament Stats: 12.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 2.0 SPG, 1.8 APG, 4-of-15 from three
It hasn't been a banner tournament for Agbaji, but at least this first-team All-American is still dancing. That's more than Oscar Tshiebwe, Keegan Murray, Johnny Davis or Kofi Cockburn can say, and that means there's still time for him to deliver one (or two) of the gems that kept him in the National Player of the Year race all season long.
Armando Bacot, North Carolina
Tournament Stats: 16.5 PPG, 15.8 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.8 BPG
No Oscar Tshiebwe? No problem. We still have a double-double machine in the Final Four. In fact, with six straight since the start of the ACC tournament, Bacot has bypassed Tshiebwe for the most double-doubles in the country this season with 29 of them. However, two of the eight games in which he didn't get a double-double were against Duke, so we'll see how he fares on the glass against Mark Williams and Co. this time around.
Paolo Banchero, Duke
Tournament Stats: 18.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.3 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 8-of-15 from three
Even though Banchero is arguably the front-runner for Most Outstanding Player of the tournament and has been consistently delivering 16-to-24-point performances all season long, does anyone else feel like we're still just scratching the surface of what he can do?
There have been moments in the past two weeks when you can almost literally see the light flash on as he remembers the ridiculous number of tools in his arsenal for a stretch of a few offensive possessions in which he dominates every which way. That light also came on early in the season against Kentucky and Gonzaga before leg cramps derailed both of those remarkable performances. It's possible he has saved his best for last.
Christian Braun, Kansas
Tournament Stats: 11.3 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 3.5 APG, 6-of-11 from three
Braun has taken more of a back-seat role with Remy Martin back in the mix for the Jayhawks. He scored at least 15 points on 16 occasions in Kansas' first 28 games, but he did not reach that threshold once in 10 games played in March. While the scoring volume has decreased, he did shoot 14-of-25 (56.0 percent) from three-point range in that span and has made a major impact on Kansas' rebounding.
Collin Gillespie, Villanova
Tournament Stats: 13.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.8 APG, 10-of-32 (31.3 percent) from three
Gillespie really struggled with Houston's physicality in the Elite Eight, shooting just 1-of-6 from the field. And yet, he managed to hit a huge jumper with about five minutes remaining, right after Houston made it a one-possession game for the first time since it was 5-2. He always seems to come up with the big bucket, and he showed on several occasions throughout the season that he can put up 25 or more points when he's feeling it.
Brady Manek, North Carolina
Tournament Stats: 21.5 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.0 APG, 16-of-34 (47.1 percent) from three
If you fell in love with the mustaches of Saint Peter's Doug Edert and Gonzaga's Drew Timme, chances are Manek's "Rick Grimes 10 years into The Walking Dead universe" hair and beard situation will appeal to you. For North Carolina, the 6'9" forward is arguably the most important player on the roster, able to drain threes, crash the boards and at least be big on defense.
Jermaine Samuels, Villanova
Tournament Stats: 17.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 1.0 APG, 5-of-10 from three
Samuels had scored 15 or more points in a game just seven times prior to the tournament and hadn't done it in back-to-back games since the first two games of the season. But he has gone for at least 15 points and seven rebounds in each of Villanova's four tournament games. Samuels has also played a massive role on defense. He doesn't get a ton of blocks, but he is Villanova's primary rim protector and its best defensive rebounder. He was essential in slowing down the likes of E.J. Liddell, Hunter Dickinson and Fabian White Jr.
Mark Williams, Duke
Tournament Stats: 14.5 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 4.0 BPG
Picking just two Blue Devils for this section was tough, as AJ Griffin, Wendell Moore Jr., Jeremy Roach and Trevor Keels have each had their moments in the spotlight. But Williams is such a difference-maker on both ends of the floor. They don't design a ton of offense for him, but he sure does convert at a high level when they do, shooting 25-of-31 thus far in the tournament on mostly dunks. And, of course, the blocks are huge.
Underrated Players to Watch
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Chris Arcidiacono, Villanova
Tournament Stats: 15 minutes, two points, one assist, one steal
"Little Arch" barely saw the court in the past three games. But just like last year when he was forced into a starting role in March when Collin Gillespie tore his MCL, he is destined for a drastic uptick in playing time with Justin Moore out of the picture. It will be interesting to see if opponents even pretend to show respect to a guy who has shot just 25.4 percent from the field in his career. At the same time, what championship team hasn't had an unheralded reserve do something massive in one of its final two games?
Leaky Black, North Carolina
Tournament Stats: 3.8 PPG, 4.8 APG, 4.5 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 1.0 BPG
He's not going to shoot much. Thus far in the tournament, Black has logged 146 minutes and just 14 field-goal attempts. But he has great court awareness on both ends of the floor, resulting in solid defense and a decent number of assists. My guess is he'll be primarily guarding Paolo Banchero (with Brady Manek taking AJ Griffin) in the Final Four, and then Black would be responsible for either Kansas' Ochai Agbaji or Villanova's Jermaine Samuels in the national championship if the Tar Heels get that far.
Jalen Coleman-Lands, Kansas
Tournament Stats: 27 minutes, 14 points, three rebounds, 4-of-7 from three
During the Elite Eight showdown with Miami, everyone made their jokes about Hurricanes sixth-year journeyman Charlie Moore, but did you know Coleman-Lands was the most promising star of Illinois' 2015 recruiting class? The seventh-year senior never quite delivered on that potential, but he has always been a good three-point shooter. He's at 30-of-67 (44.8 percent) for the year and could deliver a big shot or two off the bench.
Theo John, Duke
Tournament Stats: 33 minutes, six points, nine rebounds, four blocks
Mark Williams has been shouldering a heavy load at the 5 for Duke, but when he does come out of the game, Duke's opponents aren't getting much relief around the rim. John is also a great shot-blocker, and he generates steals at the best rate on the roster. He does commit a lot of fouls while hunting those impact plays on defense, but it doesn't really matter if he gets into foul trouble, so long as Williams isn't also battling the whistles.
Duke's Three-Step Blueprint to a Title
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If all goes according to plan, these three things will happen, and Duke will win its sixth national championship under Mike Krzyzewski.
1. Let the good times roll on offense.
Duke has scored at least 78 points in each game of this tournament, leapfrogging the likes of Purdue and Gonzaga to become the most efficient offense in the country. The Blue Devils share the rock well and are thriving in a system where each of the six main guys is both a legitimate threat to score 25 points and willing to play a more tertiary role when a teammate gets into a groove. That latter part wasn't always the case this season, but this "one for all and all for Coach K" sort of mentality has served them well.
2. Stay out of foul trouble.
This one should be a freebie, because the only Blue Devil to foul out of a game all season was backup big man Theo John in the November loss to Ohio State. All the same, it is especially critical that Paolo Banchero stays out of foul trouble, since A) so much of what Duke does on offense runs through him and B) AJ Griffin at the 4 on defense is a significant liability.
3. Keep mixing up the defense.
In the Sweet 16 against Texas Tech and the Elite Eight against Arkansas, when Duke broke out the zone with about 12 minutes remaining in the second half, the opposing team looked like deer in headlights. It especially shook Arkansas, turning a five-point game into an 18-point blowout in a hurry. And the Blue Devils should continue doing whatever they can to make up for the fact that they do not have a good perimeter defense.
Kansas' Three-Step Blueprint to a Title
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If all goes according to plan, these three things will happen, and Kansas will win its second national championship under Bill Self and the fourth title in school history.
1. Keep dominating down low.
We previously noted that Kansas is winning with blocks and rebounds. What we didn't note is that primary big man David McCormack hasn't even been that much of a factor, averaging 9.8 points, 4.8 rebounds and 0.8 blocks per game. Blocks aren't typically part of his arsenal, but if the McCormack who had 10 double-doubles prior to Selection Sunday decides to make an appearance in New Orleans, the Jayhawks could really be a problem in the paint.
2. Deny dribble-drive penetration.
In Kansas' six regular-season losses, opponents shot 24-of-100 from three-point range, but 56.3 percent inside the arc. Some of that was opposing big men doing their thing, but a lot of it was guards being able to get into the lane whenever they pleased. Maybe it won't derail the Jayhawks against perimeter-oriented Villanova, but both Duke and North Carolina have multiple guards who could feast on this defense if they don't come up with a solution here.
3. Get the first-team All-American going.
Ochai Agbaji had a fantastic season, but he's averaging a modest 12.3 points per game in the tournament. He was a ghost on offense in the Sweet 16 against Providence (five points, no assists), and he wasn't much better in the first half against Miami on Sunday (six points, one assist). Once he got into a groove in the second half, though, Kansas turned a six-point halftime deficit into a convincing win in a hurry. The Jayhawks need more of that if they're going to be at their best in the Final Four.
North Carolina's Three-Step Blueprint to a Title
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If all goes according to plan, these three things will happen, and North Carolina will win its first national championship under Hubert Davis, its fourth since 2005 and its seventh in program history.
1. Keep Armando Bacot out of foul trouble.
All five starters need to avoid getting into foul trouble because North Carolina has no bench whatsoever. (UNC reserves scored a combined total of four points in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight.) But they especially need Bacot to avoid whistles. The big man has had 12 games this season with at least four fouls, including four disqualifications. North Carolina simply cannot afford to lose him—especially against Duke, because Brady Manek and Leaky Black are not going to be able to slow down Mark Williams and Paolo Banchero.
2. Keep praying to the three-point gods for good luck.
As mentioned earlier, North Carolina's three-point luck thus far in the tournament has been light years ahead of where it was for most of the season. Three of the Tar Heels' four opponents have shot below 26 percent from deep, and UCLA merely went 5-of-14 (35.7 percent) in the exception. Duke, Kansas and Villanova can all make it rain from distance, but maybe that luck will continue for one more weekend.
3. Ride the hopefully hot hand of Caleb Love.
One year ago, the thought of living and dying with Love's three-point stroke would have been enough to make some UNC fans vomit, but the second-year lead guard has been one of the most improved players in the nation. Since the beginning of December, North Carolina is 23-3 when Love scores in double figures and 1-4 when he does not. If he gets hot early, anything is possible.
Villanova's Three-Step Blueprint to a Title
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If all goes according to plan, these three things will happen, and Villanova will win its third national championship inside a decade and its fourth in program history.
1. Win the three-point battle.
I'll keep reiterating this stat until it fails to deliver, but Villanova is 20-0 this season and 50-1 dating back to March 2019 when making at least seven three-pointers and holding the opposition below 37.5 percent from distance. And neither of those conditions is asking much, particularly for a team averaging 26 attempts per game.
2. Continue thriving on defense.
Dating back to the end of the regular season, Villanova has held eight consecutive opponents to 65 points or fewer. The Wildcats did lose two games this season (at Baylor, vs. Marquette) in which they only allowed 57 points, but they have benefited greatly as of late from dialing up the intensity on that end of the floor. They don't have much size, but Eric Dixon, Jermaine Samuels and Brandon Slater have made things very difficult in the paint for opponents.
3. Maintain that otherworldly composure.
Villanova never gets sped up, rarely commits turnovers, doesn't miss free throws and always seems to be even-keeled. Of course, that all stems from Jay Wright, who barely even cracked a smile when Kris Jenkins hit that game-winner at the buzzer in the 2016 championship. Just a calm "bang" under his breath and a walk to the handshake line. The veterans on this roster are just an extension of their head coach on the court. And if they keep calm and do their thing, they can win it all.
Predictions
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No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 2 Villanova
Saturday at 6:09 p.m. ET (TBS)
It's a damn shame that Justin Moore tore his Achilles' against Houston, and that injury makes it so hard to envision Villanova winning this game.
Moore was the Wildcats' primary scoring option this season. He finished second in scoring average behind Collin Gillespie, but Moore averaged 1.3 more field-goal attempts per game. Throw in his averages of 4.8 rebounds and 2.3 assists, and there's little hope of Bryan Antoine and Chris Arcidiacono filling that void.
But if you think Villanova will just roll over and die, think again. This team still has Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels, and they've got some experience in the "short-handed for the tournament" department after playing surprisingly well in last year's dance without Gillespie. Also, there are still enough three-point weapons on this offense to pull off the upset.
Even with Moore, though, Villanova's offense struggled this past weekend against Michigan and Houston. Against a Kansas team that has been dominant down low, the Wildcats were going to be the underdog in this game with or without Moore. His absence just makes it that much harder.
Prediction: Kansas 68-59
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 8 North Carolina
Saturday at (approx.) 8:49 p.m. ET (TBS)
By now, you are aware this will be the first time that Duke and North Carolina meet in the NCAA tournament. But it won't be the first meeting of this season. Pretty rare to have two regular-season games to look back on for a Final Four preview, but we would be remiss if we didn't do exactly that for this colossal rivalry.
In the game at North Carolina, Duke came out on fire, building up a 31-8 lead barely 10 minutes into the game before keeping the Tar Heels at arm's length from there. The Blue Devils took advantage of UNC's poor perimeter defense, but they also dominated the battle in the paint, finishing plus-16 on the glass and plus-20 in points from two-point field goals.
In the rematch in Durham, North Carolina flipped the script and finished the game on a 38-20 run. Made free throws (19 for UNC, six for Duke) were the main difference in what was otherwise a pretty even game until the final eight minutes.
Duke scored at least 80 in each contest, and with the way that offense has been humming lately, that will probably again on Saturday. But North Carolina has also been red hot and is more than capable of putting up a ton of points against a Duke team that also has a lackluster perimeter defense.
But I'm going with Duke because I believe UNC's win at Duke was a bit more of a wake-up call for the Blue Devils than it was a statement for the Tar Heels. (It was definitely both, though.) Both AJ Griffin and Wendell Moore Jr. were way too passive in that game, leaving Paolo Banchero to force things a bit too much. Duke's offense has been much more balanced thus far in the tournament, and I don't think North Carolina's defense can handle this offense in its current state—since it could barely handle it four weeks ago.
Prediction: Duke 83-77
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 2 Duke
Monday at 9:20 p.m. ET (TBS)
One final Champions Classic matchup for the road for Coach K, and what a poetic ending it would be. He beat Kansas in his first-ever trip to the Final Four (1986) and his first national championship game against Kansas (1991).
Of course, there's the other scenario in which Kansas wins the game, and this becomes somewhat of an unofficial passing of the "best active coach" torch from Mike Krzyzewski to Bill Self.
Either way, there isn't any shortage of coaching-based angles to consider in advance of this blue-blood showdown.
As far as the matchup is concerned, though, Coach K's sixth national championship could be one of his more lopsided ones. Kansas has had a lot of trouble staying in front of drivers this season, and Duke has five guys who can slash to the rim, shoot the three or pull-up for a mid-range bucket—plus a sixth (Mark Williams) who can clean up any messes and thrown down thunderous dunks.
The Jayhawks could keep pace, though. They have several great three-point shooters and a bunch of guys who can get to the rim in their own right. But I think a high-scoring, NBA-style affair favors the Blue Devils.
Prediction: Duke 88-82
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