Buying and Selling the 2022 MLB Rookie of the Year Favorites
It's not always easy to predict the American League and National League Rookie of the Year winners.
Two years ago, Seattle Mariners center fielder Kyle Lewis and Milwaukee Brewers relief pitcher Devin Williams were far from favorites to win the hardware, and the same was true of Cincinnati Reds second baseman Jonathan India in 2021.
But Tampa Bay Rays left fielder Randy Arozarena was undoubtedly one of the favorites in the AL last year, and other elite prospects such as Ronald Acuna Jr., Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager and Kris Bryant have won the award in recent years.
We took a closer look at the favorites for the 2022 Rookie of the Year honors and played a round of buy or sell based on their latest DraftKings odds. We detailed the four front-runners from each league along with a few players with longer odds who are worth considering.
NL Contender: C Joey Bart, San Francisco Giants
1 of 10
Odds: +850
The retirement of Buster Posey opened the door for Joey Bart to take over as the San Francisco Giants' starting catcher, and while those are big shoes to fill, he has the potential to be a perennial All-Star.
The 25-year-old was overmatched in a 33-game audition in 2020, when he spent a significant part of the coronavirus pandemic-shortened season in the majors, but he hit .294/.358/.472 with 15 doubles and 10 home runs in 67 games at Triple-A last year.
He will likely split time with Curt Casali early in the season, and the duo could share the job for the entire season as Bart settles in. That'd be the smart move for the contending Giants, but it will take a bite out of Bart's production.
Buy or Sell: Sell
NL Contender: C Keibert Ruiz, Washington Nationals
2 of 10
Odds: +500
The Washington Nationals acquired catcher Keibert Ruiz from the Los Angeles Dodgers last summer in their blockbuster trade of Max Scherzer and Trea Turner, and he immediately took over as their starting catcher without Will Smith in his path.
He hit .284/.348/.395 with two home runs and 14 RBI in 23 games, and he was a steady offensive performer in the minors. Fellow deadline pickup Riley Adams is his backup, but Ruiz will be the primary starter.
The 23-year-old has an average-over-power profile, however, which could keep him from posting the gaudy numbers on which voters often seem to focus. Still, he is a well-rounded catcher and potential cornerstone piece for rebuilding Washington.
Buy or Sell: Sell
NL Contender: OF Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs
3 of 10
Odds: +400
The Chicago Cubs signed Japan League star Seiya Suzuki to a five-year, $85 million contract, and he has the potential to follow in the footsteps of Hideo Nomo, Kazuhiro Sasaki, Ichiro Suzuki and Shohei Ohtani as the fifth Japanese player to win Rookie of the Year honors.
The 27-year-old hit .317/.433/.636 with 38 home runs and almost as many walks (88) as strikeouts (89) last season, and he had a .943 OPS with 189 home runs and 621 RBI in nine seasons with the Hiroshima Carp.
Those strong plate discipline numbers bode well for his transition to MLB, and with a no-doubt everyday spot in the Cubs outfield, he has a clear path to playing time and a full season's worth of production.
Buy or Sell: Buy
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NL Favorite: SS Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates
4 of 10
Odds: +350
The Pittsburgh Pirates have a future star in Oneil Cruz. The question is when he'll hold an everyday job in the big leagues. It doesn't sound like Opening Day is in the cards.
"I think there's still development to be had there," manager Derek Shelton told Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic. "Oneil is gonna have an impact on our club this year at some point. When that is, I don't think any of us know. But the fact that he's gonna play multiple positions, he's continuing to learn to swing the bat, and there is development there."
The 23-year-old hit .310/.375/.594 with 16 doubles, five triples and 17 home runs at Double-A and Triple-A last year—and he did it in only 68 games.
There's no reason for the Pirates not to manipulate Cruz's service time, but if he arrives in late April or early May, that will be plenty of time for the 6'7" slugger to make his mark.
Buy or Sell: Buy
NL Dark-Horse Picks
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RP Camilo Doval, San Francisco Giants (+2000)
Doval had three stints with the Giants last season before joining the roster for good in September. In that last stretch, he threw 14.1 scoreless innings with three walks and 20 strikeouts, going 4-0 with three saves and one hold. With a fastball that averaged 98.6 mph and a wipeout slider, he has the stuff to be an elite closer.
DH Seth Beer, Arizona Diamondbacks (+3000)
The implementation of the universal designated hitter gives Beer an opportunity to claim an everyday job for the D-backs. The 25-year-old has a 50-hit, 55-power profile, and he slashed .287/.398/.511 with 33 doubles, 16 home runs and 59 RBI in 100 games at Triple-A last year. There is 30-homer power in his bat, and he has a clear path to regular playing time.
OF JJ Bleday, Miami Marlins (+10000)
After a disappointing regular season last year, Bleday hit .316/.435/.600 with five home runs and 24 RBI in 24 games in the Arizona Fall League. The Marlins are slated to open the season with veterans Avisail Garcia and Jorge Soler manning the corner outfield spots, but they'll find a way to get Bleday's bat into the lineup once he's ready. The No. 4 pick in the 2019 draft has an extremely high offensive ceiling.
AL Contender: OF Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners
6 of 10
Odds: +750
After Jarred Kelenic struggled and had to be returned to the minors following an early promotion last year, the Seattle Mariners might decide to play things safer with Julio Rodriguez this year.
The 21-year-old hit .347/.441/.560 with 34 extra-base hits and 21 steals in 74 games at High-A and Double-A last year and played for the Dominican Republic in the Olympics.
With Kelenic, Jesse Winker and Mitch Haniger slated to start in the outfield and Kyle Lewis on the mend from knee surgery, the Mariners have no reason to rush Rodriguez. He could force the team's hand, but don't be surprised if he spends half the season in the minors.
Buy or Sell: Sell
AL Contender: C Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles
7 of 10
Odds: +500
From the moment he was chosen No. 1 in the 2019 draft, catcher Adley Rutschman was viewed as a franchise cornerstone and the future face of the Baltimore Orioles.
The switch-hitter batted .285/.397/.502 with 25 doubles, 23 home runs and 75 RBI in 123 games at Double-A and Triple-A last year, and with his mix of on-base ability, power and strong defense, he should immediately be one of the sport's best all-around catchers.
The 24-year-old has been on the shelf in spring training with a triceps injury that will likely take him out of the running for a spot on the Opening Day roster, but with only veteran Robinson Chirinos standing in his way on the 40-man roster, it's a matter of time before he gets the call.
Buy or Sell: Buy
AL Contender: 1B Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers
8 of 10
Odds: +450
Spencer Torkelson probably could have gone directly from Arizona State to the Detroit Tigers after he was picked No. 1 overall in the 2020 draft.
With a 60-hit, 70-power profile, he is one of the best offensive prospects to come along in years, and he backed up the hype by slashing .267/.383/.552 with 29 doubles, 30 home runs and 91 RBI in 121 games over three minor league levels in his debut pro campaign.
Entering Thursday, he was 4-for-12 with two doubles in spring training, and the Tigers—who spent big to add Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez in free agency—appear willing to give him every opportunity to win the Opening Day first base job. A Pete Alonso-type debut is not out of the question.
Buy or Sell: Buy
AL Favorite: 3B Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
9 of 10
Odds: +330
Bobby Witt Jr. can make a strong case to be the No. 1 prospect in baseball after hitting .290/.361/.576 with 35 doubles, 33 home runs, 97 RBI, 99 runs and 29 steals in 124 games at Double-A and Triple-A last year.
A natural shortstop, Witt has a chance to win the third base job for the Kansas City Royals with some combination of Whit Merrifield, Nicky Lopez and Adalberto Mondesi set to occupy the middle infield spots. The 21-year-old is 3-for-7 with a double and a home run in spring training.
Spencer Torkelson at +450 is a better value than Witt at +330 if you're going to bet on a favorite, but both players have the potential to make a big impact.
Buy or Sell: Buy
AL Dark-Horse Picks
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OF Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers (+1200)
This looks like the best value on the board. Greene has been in lockstep with Spencer Torkelson in his rise through the Detroit farm system, and after hitting .301/.387/.534 with 24 home runs and 84 RBI in 124 games at Double-A and Triple-A, it is just as likely that he will break camp with a spot on the roster.
SS Nick Allen, Oakland Athletics (+7500)
After selling aggressively coming out of the lockout, the Athletics are rebuilding. Veteran Elvis Andrus is in the final year of his contract, and it would not be the least bit surprising if the team cut him loose to clear a path for Allen. The slick-fielding shortstop hit .288/.346/.403 with 25 extra-base hits and 12 steals in 89 games in the upper levels of the minors last year, and he also was the starting shortstop for Team USA in the Olympics.
OF Josh Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays (+9000)
Lowe hit .291/.381/.535 with 28 doubles, 22 home runs, 78 RBI and 26 steals at Triple-A last year, and he is the best defensive outfielder in the Tampa Bay system. With veteran Kevin Kiermaier in the final year of his contract, the Rays could give Lowe an early opportunity to claim the starting center field job and shift Kiermaier to a fourth outfielder role or trade him.
Odds via DraftKings and accurate as of Wednesday afternoon.
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