Ranking the Top 10 NBA Draft Prospects in the 2022 Sweet 16
Though a handful of potential top-10 NBA draft picks have been eliminated from the NCAA tournament, lottery teams still have plenty of targets to scout.
Multiple No. 1 overall candidates will be playing in the Sweet 16, and we've counted 10 prospects who could wind up in the first round.
These rankings are based on NBA potential, not NCAA tournament value.
10. Christian Koloko (Arizona, C, Junior)
1 of 10
Averaging 17.0 points over Arizona's last seven games, Christian Koloko has been noticeably more active offensively lately. It's a key development for a center whose value mostly revolves around defense and shot-blocking.
Coming off a career 28-point night against TCU, Koloko enters the Sweet 16 with his motor, timing and touch on point. There hasn't been anything flashy about his offense—he's just converting his post-ups and picking up easy baskets by cutting, rolling and crashing the glass.
Still, NBA teams will be after his rim protection and potential switchability. The 7'1", 230-pound center has an impressive 10.4 block percentage, and he's done a better job this year of avoiding fouls (4.4 per 40).
The further Arizona advances, the more the light figures to shine on Koloko's impact as an energy finisher and defender.
9. Wendell Moore Jr. (Duke, SG/SF, Junior)
2 of 10
Wendell Moore Jr. evolving into Duke's assist leader and a 41.3 percent three-pointer has been a noteworthy scouting development.
Moore's specific improvements create versatility that should paint him as an NBA fit, now that's he's one of the nation's most efficient off-ball scorers (92nd percentile spot-up, 96th percentile cuts) and a threat to generate offense as a pick-and-roll ball-handler (80th percentile).
He's also young for his class at 20 years old.
Does he project as a high-level creator or scorer? Probably not. But with a shoot-dribble-pass skill set, Moore has morphed in a Swiss Army Knife teams can use in a connector role.
His game screams low ceiling, high floor and feels attractive for a team willing to settle on adding an interchangeable role player over chasing star potential.
8. Christian Braun (Kansas, SG/SF, Junior)
3 of 10
Scouts have started to picture a pro in Christian Braun.
They didn't last year when he shot 38.0 percent from the field, but he's been far more effective using his 6'7", 218-pound frame and athleticism inside the arc (55.0 percent) this season.
And with improved three-point efficiency and live-dribble skill—which he showed during the tournament's opening two rounds by making five-of-seven threes and totaling eight assists—Braun has caught scouts' attention with an intriguing mix of physical traits, shooting potential and playmaking ability.
He needs to do a better job when he's spotting up and run off the line, as he does struggle with the quick pull-up or finishing runners and traffic finishes. But as a ball-handler, he's converted an outstanding 29-of-39 coast-to-coast transition opportunities and 48.4 percent of his ball-screen possessions as a scorer.
There is also enough to like about his defensive activity and competitiveness to think he can be useful at both ends of an NBA floor.
7. Ochai Agbaji (Kansas, SG/SF Senior)
4 of 10
Drafting senior shooters (Chris Duarte, Desmond Bane, Cameron Johnson) has worked out well for teams recently. There won't be a shortage of interest in Ochai Agbaji, who's hit 94 threes (40.0 percent) in 35 games.
His two poor shooting performances to start the NCAA tournament won't impact his draft stock. The eye test buys his 2.7 makes per game, quick release, rhythm and visible confidence. Seeing his free-throw percentage rise to 77.4 percent (after three disappointing seasons under 70 percent from the line) should also help his case.
Creating offense still isn't a strength, though, and it won't be one of his responsibilities at the next level. A poor pull-up (24.2 percent) and runner game (4-of-22) also limit his scoring potential. But Agbaji should offer enough catch-and-shooting and open-floor athleticism to carve out a supporting role right away.
6. Mark Williams (Duke, C, Sophomore)
5 of 10
Duke's leader in box plus-minus by a wide margin, Mark Williams, has been a game-changer with just an 18.7 percent usage and the draft field's best tools for finishing and shot-blocking.
Through two NCAA tournament games, he's missed three field-goal attempts while totaling 30 points, 15 rebounds, 10 blocks and five assists. And at 7'1", 242 pounds with a massive 7'7" wingspan, he possesses the physical profile for his defensive impact and dunks off cuts, rolls and putbacks to carry over.
Williams won't be for every NBA team, but the ones interested in adding an easy-basket weapon and rim protection will look past his creating and scoring limitations. The fact that he's making 74.3 percent of his free throws is a bonus for a center who projects similarly to centers like Mitchell Robinson and Clint Capela.
5. AJ Griffin (Duke, SF/PF, Freshman)
6 of 10
Three-point shooting and shot-making versatility are behind all the interest in AJ Griffin, particularly since he's 6'6", 222-pounds.
He's at 45.5 percent from deep on the season while also hitting 43.9 percent of his pull-ups and a respectable 14 shots off screens.
Duke uses him in a spot-up role for 47.6 percent of his possessions, which limits his scoring opportunities. For NBA teams, it's difficult to have too much confidence in Griffin's scoring potential, given how little creation he's flashed and the fact he isn't super quick or explosive.
But he also hasn't looked inept (8-of-15 out of pick-and-rolls, 5-of-13 isolation). And at 18 years old with an outstanding physical profile and a convincing jumper, Griffin comes off as a high-floor, easy fit with plenty of time to add some extra off-the-dribble offense.
4. Bennedict Mathurin (Arizona, SG, Sophomore)
7 of 10
There isn't a prospect on record with 80-plus threes in a season who's had more dunks than Bennedict Mathurin.
That combination of explosiveness and shot-making has led to lottery projections all year. Mathurin is an easy NBA fit to picture, but the pull-up shooting and playmaking passes against Wright State and TCU were really what scouts had been craving.
He won't be on the board in the late lottery if he continues to flash more creation—shooting off the dribble, handling in tight windows, ball-screen facilitating—plus the intensity level he brought to Arizona's win over TCU.
Trending in the right direction entering the Sweet 16, Mathurin faces a tough Houston defense that starts four seniors.
3. Chet Holmgren (Gonzaga, PF/C, Freshman)
8 of 10
Yes, Chet Holmgren had some difficulty creating offensive opportunities for himself against an athletic Memphis squad. And yes, he still made an impact on the win without scoring in double-figures.
For an NBA team, the appeal to adding Holmgren stems from his own, specialized impact—not necessarily the traditional type fueled by 25-30-point games. His comes from rim protection, easy baskets, floor-spacing and passing.
Holmgren forced Jalen Duren, who's 55 pounds heavier and shot 59.7 percent on the season, into missing his most shots in a game all year. Holmgren practically makes every opponents' offensive possession tougher with his 7'5" wingspan around the basket, timing and IQ for positioning.
But let's not take one game against Memphis and start questioning whether Holmgren has any offensive game. He's a 7-footer who's made 40 threes (39.2 percent) and recorded 19 field goals as a transition ball-handler. He grades in the 99th percentile as a finisher, making 80.9 percent of his attempts around the basket.
Holmgren doesn't project as the type of initiator who can create his offense in the half court. His one-on-one delivery can be choppy, and he isn't the quickest with the ball in tight spaces. Unlike Paolo Banchero or Jabari Smith, he doesn't have the game for coaches to feature at the end of clocks.
However, Holmgren does have the perfect tools and skill set for optimal, complementary scoring while offering one of the highest defensive ceilings in recent memory.
In the Sweet 16, scouting eyes will be on the possessions when Holmgren is matched up with Jaylin Williams, an agile 6'10" big.
2. Jaden Ivey (Purdue, PG/SG, Sophomore)
9 of 10
Jaden Ivey's clutch step-back three against Texas, when he created an ocean of space and iced the game, was the type of play that helps scouts picture a star NBA scorer.
Speed and explosion will always be his signatures strengths. But through two NCAA tournament games, his improved skill level has really come alive, with Ivey shaking defenders off the dribble, hitting deep, NBA threes and playmaking for teammates.
When he's hitting jumpers like he did in the tournament's first two rounds, he looks as enticing as any player in this draft. Defenders won't be able to stay attached after one of his absurd bursts or changes of direction, even at the NBA level.
The biggest question asks whether Ivey will turn the streaky shot-making into consistent shooting. He also does tend to blend in too often for a player with such advantageous athletic abilities.
But these are correctable weaknesses on a 20-year-old. Depending on the lottery order, it feels like Ivey could go as high as No. 2 to a guard-needy team that's willing to bet on his ascending development.
1. Paolo Banchero (Duke, PF, Freshman)
10 of 10
All season, Paolo Banchero has built a case for NBA teams around his physical profile and polished skill level for scoring with pull-ups, fallaways, footwork and touch.
Lately, however, he's added playmaking, looking more confident creating for teammates off the dribble or making passing reads. And though his three-ball has come and gone throughout the season, he's had it for the NCAA tournament entering the Sweet 16.
Banchero totaled eight assists and four three-point makes on 44.4 percent shooting in wins over CSU Fullerton and Michigan State.
The question marks revolve around his style, which leads to catch-and-holds and contested two-point jumpers. He also lacks a degree of explosive pop off two feet around the basket, and his defensive effort has wavered.
On the other hand, he's top 10 in the nation in isolation baskets as a freshman, shooting 46.5 percent on those possessions. And though analytics experts don't love the mid-range, he's outstanding there (46.6 percent). There have also been enough possessions that highlight Banchero's ability to slide his feet or make athletic plays on the ball at the rim.
Texas Tech, the nation's top defensive team per KenPom.com, ultimately represents a tough test for Banchero and an excellent scouting opportunity for NBA executives.
Stats courtesy of Synergy Sports, Sports-Reference.com
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