NBA Rookie of the Year Ladder: Scottie Barnes Is Making One Final Push
The 2021-22 NBA season has plenty to sort out among its remaining weeks.
Crowning the next Rookie of the Year is on the to-do list.
While a clear-cut choice hasn't emerged yet, it hasn't been from a lack of trying. Evan Mobley and Scottie Barnes have filled critical roles for playoff participants. Cade Cunningham has stuffed one stat sheet after the next. Franz Wagner and Herbert Jones have been rock-solid from the start. Jalen Green has made a ferocious, point-filled push during the second half.
In other words, the proximity of the checkered flag has done very little to clear up this field. Still, this is as good a time as any to take a temperature reading on this race.
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10. Davion Mitchell, PG/SG, Sacramento Kings
Mitchell's defense has passed the smell test all season, but he can credit a recent offensive uptick for helping him crack the top 10. He has scored double-digits in six of his last seven outings, a surge punctuated by his 28-point, nine-assist masterpiece on Sunday night. Over these seven games, he averaged 15.3 points, 3.7 assists (against 2.0 turnovers) and 1.0 steal with a healthy 47.2/41.7/61.5 shooting slash to boot.
9. Jonathan Kuminga, PF, Golden State Warriors
The Warriors have been cautious of throwing too much at Kuminga too soon, but his ahead-of-schedule skill and explosive athleticism keep forcing their hands. His numbers are still held in check a bit by his supporting role, but he's still sitting on 14.1 points per night and 54.7 percent shooting over his last 20 games.
8. Ayo Dosunmu, PG/SG, Chicago Bulls
As a defense-first role player on a team with several high-level scorers, Dosunmu doesn't always get the spotlight time he deserves. Even this ranking might undersell his achievements (a 52.2/39.1/67.2 shooting slash and 3.3 assists against 1.3 turnovers per game), which is a huge testament to last year's No. 38 pick. When injuries forced him into the starting lineup in mid-January, that could have drowned the Bulls. Instead, he helped them tread water (14-16 since Jan. 15).
7. Josh Giddey, SG, Oklahoma City Thunder
Giddey hasn't suited up since Feb. 24, and with the Thunder playing for draft-lottery odds, they have no reason to hurry him back. Some out-of-sight-out-of-mind forces are working against him, as his per-game numbers (12.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, 6.4 assists) might demand a higher ranking than this. But the absences, coupled with OKC's lack of team success, are working against him.
6. Jalen Green, SG, Houston Rockets
Since Feb. 17, 46 players have averaged at least 19.5 points, 89 have averaged at least 3.5 assists and 62 have averaged at last two three-pointers on 37-plus percent shooting. Just 19 have done all of the above, and Green is the lone freshman in that group. His scoring surges are becoming more frequent and efficient. If he keeps the volume cranked and sustains his hot shooting through the stretch run, he could crack the top five.
5. Herbert Jones, SF/PF, New Orleans Pelicans
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Traditional metrics don't do Herbert Jones justice.
He's a single-digit scorer and unremarkable rebounder and passer, so those tracking only the counting categories won't capture his full impact. Sure, they might notice that he's fourth among rookies in total minutes (2,067), first in steals per game (1.6) and sixth in blocks per game (0.8).
Of course, that's also not everything he has going for him.
Shift over to advanced statistics, and suddenly Jones shines as one of the best in this rookie class. FiveThirtyEight credits Jones with more wins above replacement than any freshman (4.9). Among players selected in July's draft, he sits third in both win shares (4.3) and value over replacement player (0.8).
The Pelicans aren't great, but they are competitive—and much more so with Jones (plus-2.1 net rating) than without (minus-5.3). There are more traditionally productive rookies around, but few have made a greater impact on winning.
4. Franz Wagner, SF, Orlando Magic
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Style sometimes wins out over substance in these discussions, but Franz Wagner's reliability should earn him high marks with voters.
He's already the most important player on the Magic. That's a subjective take, obviously, but objectively speaking, he is their second-highest scorer (15.3 points per game) and by-a-mile leader in games (72) and minutes (2,278). He also leads the rookie class in games played and ranks second in minutes.
He shows impressive polish for a first-timer—probably because he's not really a first-timer. This is his first NBA season, sure, but he played professionally in Germany before coming stateside for college and was preceded in the Association by his brother (and now teammate) Moritz Wagner. The younger Wagner looks closer to being wart-free than any rookie should.
"He's good at everything," veteran swingman Terrence Ross said, per Magic.com's Dan Savage. "He's really good at everything. He can shoot, pass, score, defend, and he's 6'10", so he's really fun to watch."
Wagner's stats don't sizzle quite as much as those supplied by our top three, but he is finishing up a wire-to-wire run as one of the best rookies in this class.
3. Cade Cunningham, SG, Detroit Pistons
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Cade Cunningham starts the three-player tier of realistic Rookie of the Year hopefuls.
It's a credit to the two players ranked (just) above him that he hasn't secured the hardware already. He paces the rookie class in points (17.1), ranks second in assists (5.4) and sits fourth in rebounds (5.8). He is one of four freshmen with 10-plus double-doubles and one of only two to have a triple-double (he's had two, Giddey has had four).
His numbers could be even more impressive had he not been slowed out of the gate by an ankle injury that cost him part of training camp, all of the preseason and Detroit's first four regular-season tilts. Once he knocked the rust off, it's been all systems go, and he continues ascending to new heights. Since the All-Star break, he's up to 21.6 points on 44.0 percent shooting to go along with 7.4 rebounds and 6.4 assists.
That's an elite combination of numbers. In fact, only two players are clearing those marks this season: Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic.
Keep this up, and Cunningham could play his way into the trophy, but Detroit's lack of success has him fighting an uphill battle. The Pistons had flashed some signs of respectability after the All-Star break, but they have since dropped five of their last six contests.
2. Scottie Barnes, PF, Toronto Raptors
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Scottie Barnes is a real-life cheat code.
That's how third-year Los Angeles Clippers swingman Terance Mann sees him, anyway.
"He's built like a 2K My Player," Mann told reporters. "He can do everything. He's long, quick, agile. ... He can literally do everything."
On that note, Barnes recently became the fourth rookie over the last 20 seasons to tally at least 25 points, 15 rebounds and five assists in a game, per ESPN Stats & Info. Barnes, who won't turn 21 until August, has also been tasked with the second-most versatile defensive matchups this season, per BBall-Index.com.
He is, simultaneously, a jumbo playmaker (6'7"), a five-position stopper and, on certain nights, an elite glass-cleaner and scorer. He paces this draft class in win shares (5.5) and VORP (1.6) and ranks second among all rookies in WAR (4.4). He's also sprinting through the stretch run, putting up 19.3 points, 8.6 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.6 steals since the All-Star break.
He might be more like 1B than No. 2 on this ladder, but he is still a hair behind the similarly hard-charging top-ranked rookie.
1. Evan Mobley, PF/C, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Evan Mobley's role in Cleveland's defensive transformation might be award-worthy on its own.
The Cavaliers were 25th in defensive efficiency just last season. Now, they're sitting fourth overall. That turnaround isn't all about Mobley, but he is their leader in minutes (2,163), blocks (1.7) and defensive win shares (3.6), so it feels safe to argue he's had more to do with it than anyone.
Defense alone doesn't keep Mobley on the top, though. Not in a draft class this deep.
This position is instead credited to his offensive surge, which coincides with the loss of Cleveland's starting center Jarrett Allen to a fractured finger. Including the contest Allen left early, Mobley has averaged an even 20 points on 54.9 percent shooting over these eight games, plus 10.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.8 blocks and 1.4 steals.
The Cavs are a respectable 5-3 in this stretch, losing only to top-five seeds in the East (Chicago, Miami and Philadelphia). Mobley scored at least 20 points in four of those wins, and in the other, he shot 50 percent from the field and dished six assists.
"I say all the time, he's our Rookie of the Year in the NBA," Cavaliers All-Star guard Darius Garland said, per The Athletic's Kelsey Russo. "... This is the guy right here, he does everything for us. Defensive-wise, offensive-wise. Seven-foot unicorn. I mean, he can do everything."
Mobley jumped out to an early lead in this race, and while the competition is doing everything it can to catch him, he's still ahead of the pack entering the final turn.
Statistics are accurate through Sunday's games and courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
