Grading the Top MLB Trades and Free-Agent Signings Post-Lockout
In the days since Major League Baseball lifted its lockout, the free-agent and trade markets have reopened, and there have been deals left, right and center.
Here's what we think of the biggest ones so far.
Specifically, we've offered grades for the five most notable signings and trades since baseball got back to business. In assigning these, we weighed how much we like the players involved, how they fit on their new teams and any other relevant matters.
We'll start with some honorable mentions and then hit the trades first.
Honorable Mentions
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Chicago Cubs Sign SS Andrelton Simmons
The Deal: 1 year, $4 million
Maybe Simmons isn't the shortstop Cubs fans wanted, but his spectacular defense should count for a lot behind pitch-to-contact types like Kyle Hendricks, Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley.
Chicago White Sox Sign INF/OF Josh Harrison
The Deal: 1 year, $5.5 million
He was one of our under-the-radar guys, so...good job, White Sox. No notes.
Philadelphia Phillies Sign LHP Brad Hand and RHP Jeurys Familia
The Deals: 1 year, $6 million
Perhaps the Phillies could have instead sunk $12 million into one reliever, such as Kenley Jansen or Ryan Tepera. But they could have picked worse guys to split that money on. Familia is a good source of strikeouts and ground balls, and Hand is a good bounce-back candidate after a rocky 2021 season.
New York Mets Sign RHP Adam Ottavino
The Deal: 1 year, $4 million
Even if he's now a couple of years removed from his peak, he's still good for shutting down right-handed batters and generating slider GIFs.
New York Mets Acquire Chris Bassitt from Oakland Athletics
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New York Mets get: RHP Chris Bassitt
Oakland Athletics get: RHP J.T. Ginn and RHP Adam Oller
For the Mets: A
Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer have five Cy Young Awards between them, but the Mets sorely needed a proper No. 3 to back them up and to generally add more stability to the team's rotation.
Though the 33-year-old Bassitt has never topped 160 innings in a season, he's pitched to a well-above-average 129 ERA+ over the last four years. Nothing about him is overpowering, but he's a crafty one who throws strikes and manages contact. To wit, his hard-hit rate was in the 88th percentile last year.
Even if he's due for free agency at year's end, the Mets still did well to get Bassitt while also keeping all five of their best prospects.
For the A's: B
On that last note, A's fans have every right to feel like the team didn't get enough for a guy who had been the team's most consistent pitcher. And yet, it's far from a bad return.
Ginn made his pro debut last year and turned in a 3.03 ERA over 18 starts at Single-A and High-A. He doesn't miss many bats, but his extraordinary penchant for ground balls gives him mid-rotation upside.
Though Oller is a former 20th-rounder who's already 27 years old, he put himself on the map with improved velocity and 138 strikeouts over 120 innings in the high minors last year. He should be in the majors sooner rather than later.
Minnesota Twins Acquire Sonny Gray from Cincinnati Reds
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Minnesota Twins get: RHP Sonny Gray and RHP Francis Peguero
Cincinnati Reds get: RHP Chase Petty
For the Twins: B
For starters, the necessary context here is just how bad Minnesota's starting pitching was in 2021. It ranked dead-last in MLB with a total output of minus-1.4 rWAR.
By reputation, Gray can help fix things. But that depends on whether he can reclaim his status as a No. 1-type starter after slipping to a 114 ERA+ in 2021. The good news? He deserved better results than he got. The counter to the good news? He lost some spin after MLB banned sticky stuff in June.
As prospects go, Peguero isn't on the same level as Petty. The pressure to make this trade worth it, then, is pretty much all on Gray.
For the Reds: B-
By our reckoning, Petty had been the No. 7 prospect in the Twins system. Nothing special in a vacuum, and yet also not bad for a guy who's less than a year removed from being drafted at No. 26 overall.
Per Baseball America, the 18-year-old Petty boasts a fastball and slider that both have potential as 70-grade pitches. Such weapons could make him a high-leverage reliever down the line, but it's also not uncommon these days for starters to succeed on just two pitches. For that, he'll just need to stay healthy.
Still, the catch here is that Petty isn't top-100 material. The Reds might have had to eat some of Gray's $10.2 million salary to get one of those. That they didn't hint where their real priorities lie.
New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins Swap 5 Players
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New York Yankees get: 3B Josh Donaldson, SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa and C Ben Rortvedt
Minnesota Twins get: 3B Gio Urshela and C Gary Sanchez
For the Yankees: B+
If you want the pessimistic view of this trade, it's that the Yankees swapped out two regulars for a post-prime version of Donaldson and two other guys who field better than they hit.
Defense, however, is an area where the Yankees indeed needed to get better. That's where Kiner-Falefa, who won a Gold Glove in 2020, and Rortvedt, whose framing grades out well, will come in handy. As for Donaldson, even a diminished version of him still hit 26 homers with a 127 OPS+ in 2021.
Besides, Urshela and Sanchez had their own returns diminish last season. So if the Yankees made this trade thinking they'd already gotten those guys' best years, well, it's hard to blame them.
For the Twins: B
There should be no mistake that moving Donaldson's contract was the Twins' primary motivation in this deal. Suffice it to say that the Yankees can better afford the $52 million he's still owed through 2023.
Otherwise, this is a pure upside play for Minnesota.
Sanchez's defensive and offensive inconsistencies were well documented in New York, but a change of scenery might reinvigorate his 30-homer power. Though Urshela had a rough year in 2021, he was previously a two-way star in 2019 and 2020. He also has an extra year of club control on Sanchez.
Atlanta Acquires Matt Olson from Oakland Athletics
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Atlanta gets: 1B Matt Olson
Oakland Athletics get: CF Cristian Pache, C Shea Langeliers, RHP Ryan Cusick and RHP Joey Estes
For Atlanta: A
Though there's technically still a chance he could return, this trade most likely shuts the door on Freddie Freeman continuing his tenure with Atlanta.
On the plus side, Olson is the best possible stand-in for the 2020 NL MVP. He's a Gold Glove-winning first baseman with 35-to-40 homer power. And while he probably won't ever be a .300 hitter, he's coming off a career-high .371 OBP thanks in part to a greatly reduced strikeout rate.
It does sting somewhat that Atlanta parted with its two best prospects to get Olson, but when you're a win-now team, that's a price worth paying for a star, especially after they locked up Olson to an eight-year contract extension worth $168M.
For the A's: A-
The big question here is what kind of future lies ahead of Pache. He's undeniably a burner and an exciting outfielder, but he just hasn't hit much over the last two seasons.
However, there should at least be a version of Pache that's a playable regular in center field. Langeliers, meanwhile, is a gifted defensive catcher who also hit 22 home runs at Double-A last year.
Cusick went to Atlanta at No. 24 overall in 2021 and promptly put his triple-digit heat to work, whiffing 34 batters in his first 16.1 innings of pro ball. Estes made an impression in his own right with a 2.91 ERA at Single-A.
So in all, the A's got four legit prospects for a guy who was surely worth as much.
Seattle Mariners and Cincinnati Reds Do a Blockbuster
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Seattle Mariners get: LF Jesse Winker and 3B Eugenio Suarez
Cincinnati Reds get: OF Jake Fraley, RHP Justin Dunn, LHP Brandon Williamson and PTBNL
For the Mariners: B
This would have been a steal for the Mariners if this trade came after 2019, in which Suarez launched 49 home runs. But he just hasn't been the guy over the last two seasons, hitting 46 home runs but also hitting just .199.
Thankfully, Winker is a solid counter-balance for Suarez and the $35.9 million he's owed through 2024.
He's hit at a star-caliber level since the start of 2020, slashing .292/.392/.552 with 36 home runs. His red flags include platoon splits, defensive limitations and an injury history, but he should still be a stalwart in the middle of Seattle's lineup through next season.
For their part, Fraley, Dunn and Williamson have limited upside. The unknown as of now is the Player to Be Named Later, though Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports it's a player on whom the Reds are high on.
For the Reds: C
Like with the Gray trade, it's impossible to ignore the financial aspect of this deal. By moving Suarez and Winker together, the Reds ditched the former's contract and dodged the latter's $6.8 million projected salary.
As for the players Cincinnati is getting, Fraley and Dunn will basically replace Winker and Gray, respectively. Fraley is short on power but plenty long on patience. Dunn is coming off a season-ending shoulder injury, but he flashed good stuff beforehand.
Williamson did raise his profile with a 3.39 ERA and 153 strikeouts over 98.1 innings at High-A and Double-A in 2021, but only climbed as high as Seattle's No. 7 prospect in our rankings.
It's hard to pass final judgment on this trade without knowing the PTBNL. For now, though, it looks like a mixed bag in which the Reds have dumped salary but also sold low on one of their top stars.
Washington Nationals Sign DH Nelson Cruz
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The Deal: 1 year, $15 million
As Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported that four contenders were also in on him, it was a surprise when the Washington Nationals walked away with Nelson Cruz on Sunday.
Frankly, the Nationals are in an uncertain territory after a 97-loss campaign in 2021. So whether it was because of money, playing time or both, we have to assume they simply made the 41-year-old Cruz the best offer.
Regardless, Washington will now hope that Cruz will defy the aging curve. They would gladly take another 32-homer season like the one he had last year, though it bears noting that 40 home runs was Cruz's baseline between 2014 and 2019.
Trouble is, Cruz looked his age as he tailed off in the latter half of each of the last two seasons. That's particularly true of 2021, in which his move from the Minnesota Twins to the Tampa Bay Rays coincided with a 182-point dropoff in his OPS and an 8.3 percent rise in his strikeout rate.
Regardless, it's a good look on the Nats that they wanted to bring aboard such a high-profile player even amid their "reboot." The situation will only backfire if Cruz struggles, as continued good hitting could point the slugger's way to a proper contender via another midseason trade.
Grade: B
Chicago White Sox Sign RHP Joe Kelly
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The Deal: 2 years, $17 million
Maybe the Chicago White Sox wanted Joe Kelly because they took a look at their bullpen and concluded it needed more gas.
Collectively, the 95.7 mph that White Sox relievers averaged on their fastballs in 2021 was the best in baseball. In his third year with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Kelly averaged 98.1 mph on his own heater.
The 33-year-old also tallied a 2.86 ERA with 50 strikeouts and allowed just three home runs in 44 innings. Yet his consistency in those departments has been known to wax and wane over the years. It further speaks to his volatility that the Dodgers preferred to use him in low- and medium-leverage spots in 2021.
What's more, Kelly suffered a biceps strain last October, from which he's not yet fully recovered. Per James Fegan of The Athletic, White Sox general manager Rick Hahn doesn't expect the veteran righty to be ready by Opening Day on April 7.
Perhaps the White Sox wanted Kelly so they won't have to worry about filling Craig Kimbrel's shoes if they follow through on trading him. But if it's a one-or-the-other situation, the White Sox could come to regret not simply taking their chances on Kimbrel.
Grade: C
Los Angeles Dodgers Re-Sign LHP Clayton Kershaw
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The Deal: 1 year, $17 million
Though it wouldn't necessarily have been surprising if Clayton Kershaw had opted for a homecoming with the Texas Rangers, there nonetheless would have been just something wrong about him leaving the Dodgers.
To this extent, re-signing him for such a reasonable rate is a P.R. victory, if nothing else. Just as importantly, the left-hander fills one of the huge gaps the Dodgers had in their rotation.
Yes, the one left by fellow three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer still looms large. But the Dodgers still have two proper aces in Walker Buehler and Julio Urias, so what Kershaw is at this stage of his career is arguably one of baseball's best No. 3 starters.
If healthy, of course. And that's a big "if" after what happened in 2021, as Kershaw made only four starts after July 3 before finally shutting it down with a forearm injury. In lieu of surgery, he opted for a PRP injection and rehab.
If Kershaw, who turns 34 on March 19, stays healthy and puts up another 3.55 ERA, the Dodgers will have gotten their money's worth. If not, things will be awfully dicey behind Buehler and Urias.
Grade: B+
Toronto Blue Jays Sign LHP Yusei Kikuchi
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The Deal: 3 years, $36 million
Though the Toronto Blue Jays were quick to replace reigning American League Cy Young Award winner with fellow ace Kevin Gausman, they couldn't fill Steven Matz's vacated shoes before the lockout.
This is where Yusei Kikuchi comes in.
The Japanese lefty is coming off an All-Star season with the Mariners in 2021, though you'd never know it from looking at his final numbers. He finished the year with a subpar 94 ERA+, largely because he lost velocity and was hit hard to the tune of a 6.22 ERA over his last 14 outings.
Granted, the Blue Jays don't need Kikuchi to anchor the top of their rotation. That's what Gausman, Jose Berrios and Hyun-Jin Ryu are for. They just need the 30-year-old to eat innings at the back end, either as a No. 4 or even as a No. 5 behind good-looking young righty Alek Manoah.
For this purpose, they would gladly take another 94 ERA+ so long as it comes with another 157 innings. For what it's worth, that's actually more than they got out of Matz in 2021.
Grade: B
San Francisco Giants Sign LHP Carlos Rodon
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The Deal: 2 years, $44 million
Even after their deals with Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood and Alex Cobb, you could still look at the San Francisco Giants rotation and not see an answer for the loss of Gausman.
Well, Carlos Rodon is that answer.
To be sure, he comes with obvious caveats regarding his durability. Or lack thereof, for that matter. The 29-year-old has endured shoulder and Tommy John surgeries, and his 2021 season hit the skids once he developed shoulder fatigue. He simply wasn't much of a factor in the second half.
Nevertheless, there's no downplaying how electric Rodon was in the first half. He darn near tossed a perfect game in his second start. On the whole, he was utterly overpowering with a 2.31 ERA and 130 strikeouts over 89.1 innings.
It's on the Giants to keep Rodon on the mound and his fastball and slider buzzing. If that isn't a simple matter of limiting his workload, the club's court of pitching wizards might have some magic to work.
Grade: A-
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant. Contract details courtesy of Spotrac.
