Winners and Losers of NFL's Massive Rodgers, Wilson Deals
On a day of big-time quarterback moves, Aaron Rodgers renewed his relationship with the Green Bay Packers, and the Denver Broncos made a tidal-wave splash, agreeing to terms on a deal for Russell Wilson.
Rodgers kept his word. He decided on his future before free agency. According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, the four-time league MVP will sign a massive multiyear extension, which likely keeps him in Green Bay for the entirety of his career.
Per Rapoport, Rodgers' top options came down to the Packers, Broncos and retirement.
Last week, The Athletic's Matt Schneidman took the temperature of people around the league on Rodgers' situation and wrote, "it seems to be the worst-kept secret here at the 2022 NFL Scouting Combine that Rodgers isn't going anywhere."
Ultimately, the drama results in a new deal for Rodgers, a Packers squad that has its leader under center for the foreseeable future and a ripple effect that has significant offseason implications for multiple teams and players.
Moments later, the Broncos stole the NFL spotlight with a blockbuster deal to acquire Wilson from the Seahawks, pending a physical and his approval because of a no-trade clause, per ESPN's Adam Schefter.
As everyone wraps their heads around two transactions that will change the landscape of the league, we'll break down the biggest winners and losers from both deals.
Winner: Green Bay Packers
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As Aaron Rodgers kept his distance from the Packers last offseason, the team had a good look at Jordan Love during the offseason.
During the 2021 draft, general manager Brian Gutekunst said that Love had "a long way to go" in his development process. While ESPN's Rob Demovsky noted signs of progress last spring, the 23-year-old signal-caller struggled to move the ball in Week 9 against the Kansas City Chiefs in his first start.
Now, the Packers don't have to venture into the unknown with Love. Unlike half of the league, they have a clear-cut answer at quarterback for at least a few years.
Obviously, Green Bay's Super Bowl window would've immediately closed in a transition from Rodgers to Love, but that's no longer an issue.
On top of that, the Packers will reportedly lower Rodgers' 2022 cap hit, which gives them more room for wideout Davante Adams, whom the club franchise-tagged Tuesday, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Keep in mind the team is $45.8 million over the cap threshold (h/t Over the Cap).
Adams has played with Rodgers for his entire career, and they're arguably the best quarterback-receiver duo in the league. The two-time All-Pro wideout probably prefers to remain in Green Bay with his longtime teammate in place.
Loser: Seattle Seahawks
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According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Aaron Rodgers' decision "has nothing to do" with the blockbuster trade involving Russell Wilson, and general manager George Paton had been in talks with the Seahawks all along. Regardless of Green Bay's situation, Denver may have executed an agreement with Seattle anyway.
Nevertheless, as Rapoport tweeted Tuesday, Rodgers had the Broncos in mind while weighing his options. If he chose Denver, Seattle might have held on to Wilson, but the game of musical chairs with quarterbacks leaves the Seahawks with Drew Lock, whom they acquired in the trade, and Jacob Eason.
Seattle can also use the Broncos' first-round pick (No. 9 overall) to select a quarterback in the draft. Perhaps the Seahawks liked what they saw in one of the prospects at the combine. Liberty's Malik Willis and Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett have generated a lot of buzz as two of the top quarterbacks in this year's class.
Despite the Seahawks' thoughts on Willis and Pickett, neither will immediately measure up to Wilson, a nine-time Pro Bowler who led the franchise to a Super Bowl victory.
Winner: QB Aaron Rodgers
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Though Aaron Rodgers disputes the reported details of his new contract, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported that the quarterback agreed to a four-year $200 million extension, elevating him atop the quarterback market in average annual value (AAV) and guaranteed money ($153 million). He would become the highest-paid player in NFL history and certainly earned it on the field.
The Packers' move up to the No. 26 spot for quarterback Jordan Love in the 2020 draft seemed to light a fire under Rodgers, who's won back-to-back MVPs. Over the past two terms, he's thrown for 8,414 yards, 85 touchdowns and nine interceptions, leading the NFL in passer rating and QBR for both seasons.
Just two years ago, Green Bay selected his potential successor, but Rodgers clearly has a lot left in the tank, forcing the Packers to rethink their long-term quarterback plan.
The Packers' renewed commitment to Rodgers essentially comes off like a gesture that says, "I'm sorry that we doubted you." Now, he remains the face and the unanimous leader of the franchise.
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Loser: QB Jordan Love
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Speaking of Jordan Love, his rookie contract runs through the 2023 campaign, and the Packers can exercise his fifth-year option to keep him under team control for an additional term.
With Aaron Rodgers' lengthy extension, Love won't have a chance to start in Green Bay unless the star quarterback suffers an injury. As result, the Packers should place their young signal-caller on the trade block since his value will only drop from this point forward because of inactivity in meaningful games.
In 2021, Love suited up for six contests, throwing for 411 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions with a 58.1 percent completion rate. In his lone start filling in for Rodgers (COVID-19 list), he finished 19-of-34 passing for 190 yards, a touchdown and an interception, and Green Bay lost 13-7 to the Kansas City Chiefs.
Even in a small sample size, Love didn't look ready to take over the offense of a playoff-caliber team. After that game, the Packers may have come to terms with the thought that they needed to keep Rodgers around as long as possible.
Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel believes Green Bay has to trade Love now while quarterback-needy teams sift through an underwhelming group of incoming rookies and free-agent options, and he's absolutely right.
Green Bay can sell Love's intriguing physical tools (mobility and arm strength), which underscores his upside.
Winner: Denver Broncos
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The Broncos have needed stability at quarterback since Peyton Manning retired after the club won Super Bowl 50. They've had a revolving door under center and a bottom-tier offense that's ranked 21st or worse in scoring each year since Manning's departure.
Russell Wilson immediately elevates his new squad into playoff contention. The Broncos fielded a top-eight defense in points and yards this past season. Though Denver agreed to give up tight end Noah Fant in the trade with Seattle, the offense still features a deep wide receiver group that includes Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler.
Last offseason, Denver acquired Teddy Bridgewater from the Carolina Panthers, and he beat out Drew Lock for the starting quarterback job, but his production plateaued late the 2021 campaign before he missed the final three contests with a concussion. This time around, general manager George Paton swung big and hit a home run with a top-flight signal-caller.
In the AFC West, the Broncos can move up from last place to compete with the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders, who made the playoffs this past campaign. They'll also have the firepower to battle with quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers for the long term.
Loser: Las Vegas Raiders
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If you stack up the quarterbacks in the AFC West, one can easily make the case that the Raiders have the fourth-best quarterback in the division.
That's not a shot at Derek Carr, but his resume as a three-time Pro Bowler with 30-plus touchdown passes in one out of eight seasons doesn't stack up with the signal-callers Vegas will face twice a year.
Patrick Mahomes is a four-time Pro Bowler, an All-Pro, Super Bowl MVP and one of two quarterbacks in NFL history to throw for at least 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns in a single season. Russell Wilson earned nine Pro Bowl nods and led the Seahawks to the playoffs in eight out of 10 campaigns. Justin Herbert set records as the 2020 Offensive Rookie of the Year, and he's thrown for 69 touchdowns and 25 interceptions in two terms.
In the ultimate team sport, Carr doesn't shoulder the entire load to keep the Raiders competitive, but fair or not, the quarterback takes most of the responsibility for his team's results.
New Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels said Carr will be the club's Week 1 starter, but team brass has yet to start extension talks with him ahead of his contract year.
While Carr can perform at the level of a top-10 quarterback in stretches, he'll need to do so with more consistency. And the Raiders must build a strong supporting cast around him, or their rivals will leave them behind in the race for playoff spots.
Winner: Kyler Murray and QBs Ready to Sign Extensions
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Kyler Murray's agent Erik Burkhardt has made it known (publicly) that his client wants an extension.
Initially, Murray signaled tension with the Arizona Cardinals when he unfollowed the team on Instagram and scrubbed his account of association with the organization.
According to ESPN's Chris Mortensen, Murray felt that he's the scapegoat for the Cardinals' crushing 34-11 loss to the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Wild Card Round, but the NFL insider's sources close to the situation framed the 24-year-old as "immature, self-centered and a finger-pointer."
Murray may have to grow in a leadership position, but the Cardinals don't have much of a choice but to stand by him through his maturation process. As the No. 1 overall pick from the 2019 draft, he's eligible for an extension, and he could lean into a baseball career if the team doesn't meet his demands. The Oakland Athletics selected him with the ninth overall pick in the 2018 MLB draft.
Aaron Rodgers' deal resets the market and gives agents a new floor in negotiations. In addition to Murray, Lamar Jackson and Super Bowl-winning quarterback Matthew Stafford will head into contract years.
Jackson changed the trajectory of the Baltimore Ravens' outlook from a team headed in the wrong direction in 2018 to a perennial playoff contender. Stafford led the Los Angeles Rams to a title in his first year with the club.
As Rodgers goes back to Green Bay with a new contract, other quarterbacks up for an extension see dollar signs.
Loser: Packers' NFC North Rivals
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The Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions may have thrown a collective NFC North party if Aaron Rodgers retired or got traded. Instead, those clubs must find a way to knock him and the Packers off their pedestal for the next few years.
Green Bay has claimed three consecutive division titles between 2019 and 2021 with 13 wins in each of those seasons.
Meanwhile, in the same period, the Minnesota Vikings have gone 25-24 as a mediocre squad with only one playoff appearance. They just hired former Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O'Connell to take over for longtime head coach Mike Zimmer.
The Chicago Bears replaced general manager Ryan Pace and head coach Matt Nagy with Ryan Poles and Matt Eberflus, respectively. The Detroit Lions have finished last in the division for four consecutive terms (2018-21), and head coach Dan Campbell will lead them into the second year of a rebuild.
The Packers should remain atop the NFC North as the other three teams try to build contenders with new coaching staffs.
Winner: QB Mitchell Trubisky
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Though the Packers and Broncos executed major deals that involve star quarterbacks, teams such as the Pittsburgh Steelers, Washington Commanders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, Panthers and Seahawks must search for answers.
Free agency kicks off next week, and those teams can find a bridge-gap quarterback to stay competitive through 2022 before taking a look at the incoming rookies.
According to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, Mitchell Trubisky could sign a contract worth $10 million or more with a handful of teams "in the mix" for his services. The Athletic's Ben Standig heard a lot of discussion about the 27-year-old Pro Bowl signal-caller at the combine.
"Among the wilder aspects of the combine involved the steady conversation surrounding Trubisky," Standig wrote. "Specifically, there was as much or more chatter about the player selected second in the 2017 draft as the quarterbacks in the 2022 class."
If Trubisky has legitimate buzz among quarterback-needy teams, his value likely went up a few notches with Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson off the trade market. He could draw several suitors and pick the best landing spot that gives him a chance to start with a sizeable contract.
Loser: Washington Commanders
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Based on the compensation that the Broncos received in exchange for Russell Wilson, the Commanders didn't offer enough and missed out on him. Or perhaps the Seahawks didn't want to move him within the NFC.
According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, Seattle sent Wilson and a fourth-round pick to Denver in exchange for two first-round picks, two second-round picks, a fifth-round pick, quarterback Drew Lock, defensive lineman Shelby Harris and tight end Noah Fant.
Per Grant Paulsen of 106.7 The Fan, the Seahawks turned down a proposal from the Commanders that included three first-round picks. Perhaps Washington could've added a couple of defensive playmakers such as two of Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne and Montez Sweat along with premium selections to entice Seattle.
General manager Martin Mayhew said the club has made calls to every team with a "quarterback who might be available" and thus far, the Commanders have come up empty. The reported deal between the Broncos and Seahawks likely stings them a little more since they failed in an attempt to acquire Wilson.
Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.
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