MMA Mailbag: Breaking Down Your Picks for UFC 272 Colby-Masvidal Grudge Match

Welcome back to the B/R MMA Mailbag, where we discuss your takes on the various MMA topics of the day. 

The time for talk is almost over, and what a shame.

When you've got personalities as weird and wild as Jorge Masvidal and Colby Covington, part of you wishes their smack could fertilize the news cycle forever. But it has to end eventually, and for these two, the final act comes Saturday when they face off in a rare non-title main event at UFC 272. 

Alex Menendez/Getty Images

The feud is tough to briefly encapsulate (this terrific piece from MMA Junkie's Danny Segura tells the full origin story). But in a nutshell, these two were once friends and partners at the vaunted American Top Team camp in Florida, only for the relationship to rupture along just about every interpersonal fault line you can imagine. And it all happened right around the time Covington, who has for years taken fire for making hateful comments and just generally being a troll, rather abruptly and acrimoniously parted ways with ATT.

There will be no checking emotions at the door Saturday night. We know the action will be heated. But what about that small matter of the fight?

At the broadest stylistic level, it's a striker-grappler matchup, with Covington (16-3) being the wrestler and Masvidal (35-15) having a stand-up advantage. Covington is a stout -310 favorite (bet $310 to win $100) as of Thursday, according to DraftKings. 

Frank Franklin II/Associated Press

So what will happen? We polled you, the readers, to get your picks on who would win and how. We picked some of the best ones, identified some trends and broke it all down below.

Want to get in the mailbag? Look for it in the stream every Monday, then we'll publish Wednesday morning. We may edit your question for length, clarity or NSFW language. On to your picks.

My heart says Masvidal [but] my mind says Colby, at the end just hoping for a great fight. 

@SkipBrainless

I'll be rooting for Masvidal but it'll be 4-1 or 5-0 Colby win with takedowns.

@Thorne30

Ladies and gentlemen, your prevailing trend.

On the one hand, a lot of people just plain old don't like Covington very much, and they want to see comeuppance. Also Masvidal's a certified "bad motherf--ker," and he has the belt to prove it.

Alex Menendez/Getty Images

On the other hand, Covington is a more complete fighter, and he sports a watered-down version of the style that welterweight champ Kamaru Usman used twice to good effect against Masvidal. He's the favorite for a reason.

But let's put wrestling on the back burner for a second. There may be an even greater threat to Masvidal: Covington's forward pressure.

He moves forward continuously to engage and eventually break the stamina of the other man. If you've seen any of his fights, you know he keeps coming and simply doesn't tire. 

That spells trouble for Masvidal. Despite his long career, he has somehow only been past the third round on three occasions, and he lost all three. Meanwhile, Covington gets his mail delivered to the championship rounds, having reached the fifth in five consecutive contests. It's not that Masvidal is a cardio slouch, but Covington is tried and true in this area. 

But don't take my word for it. Take it from Covington himself in a recent interview: 

"Yeah, I don't get tired, you know. A lot of people, they call me the 'cardio king' for a reason; I got a second lung, you know."

I wish I had a second lung.

Masvidal in 3

@VirWim31

A few people went with Masvidal. There's no question he has a stand-up advantage, if he can keep it there.

A smart play for Masvidal would be to chop Covington down from the outside. He has good leg kicks and can use them early to score points and take some steam out of Covington's forward movement. 

Assuming you meant a third-round knockout, that may be a tad ambitious. Covington has proved himself to be pretty durable. His only knockout loss as a pro came to Usman and that right hand of granite.

Both of these fighters have solid chins—with Masvidal's lone recent exception also being Usman—so a knockout in either direction feels unlikely.

Still rooting for it to happen? Have no fear, because gambling is here. DraftKings currently has Masvidal at +400 to get the knockout (bet $100 to win $400), while Covington sits at +350 to do the same. If I had to go in any direction, I'd go with Masvidal, because...

Both of their losses came at the hands of Usman. The easy pick is Colby, he checks a lot of boxes. Fueled by the bad blood, I think Masvidal digs deep for this one and pulls out the third-round KO.

@TheWolfofBroadSt

This may not be so far-fetched at all. Who says? Usman. 

"In this fight, Colby's going to realize that it's harder to take Masvidal down in an actual fight than when they were in practice," Usman told ESPN (h/t MMA Junkie). "I know in his mind, he's going to expect it to be like it was when they practiced. But they spent some time apart now, and I think he's going to realize it's a lot harder to take him down in a fight than it is from practice."

If what the champ is suggesting is correct and Masvidal can keep this standing, suddenly we have a different calculus, knockout or no. If Covington can't consistently get takedowns, Masvidal can rack up damage and volume with kickboxing. And part of the Masvidal magic is that extra gear when there's blood in the water and the crowd begins to swell. That's not the guy Covington wants to see.

Lot of fireworks to start the match, Colby ends the round wrestling Jorge to the ground. Second round back to Jorge on the ground and a reverse choke to put Masvidal to sleep.

@ZombieKobe

Defending Covington's takedowns round after round is a tall order. Masvidal's takedown defense is good but not unassailable, with a 75 percent average, per the UFC. 

It all goes back to endurance. Neither fighter seems to pack the kind of one-shot power they'd need to finish the other. There could be fun exchanges, but they won't end the fight.

Frank Franklin II/Associated Press

Could the same go for submissions? Masvidal is good on the ground and in the scramble, but he's not a submission finisher, with only two on his lengthy record. Covington has four and is the bigger threat here. It's not terribly hard to picture, for example, Covington searching for a choke for two minutes in the fourth round before finally forcing an exhausted tap with 29 seconds left. 

DraftKings has a Covington submission win at +800. Interesting data point for someone in need of something spicy this Saturday.

Colby by Unanimous Decision

@IconWithNikesOn3

It's the boring call, but ultimately the correct one.

In his second bout with Usman, Masvidal was able to get to the fence and claw his way back to the feet after being taken down, but not before Usman dominated the entire ground sequence. 

That's pretty much the blueprint here. Over time, it will be harder and harder for Masvidal to keep Covington at bay, and I'm convinced we'll see a fiery side from Covington on Saturday. He'll stay within himself, avoid the big firefights, hit his takedowns and methodically pound Masvidal into mush for 25 interminable minutes.   

We'll all be asleep by the time it happens, but Covington will walk away with a clear unanimous decision victory. Covington is -125 to win by decision, according to DraftKings, making it the most likely outcome among the oddsmakers.

Let's close up the mailbag for now. Enjoy the fights this weekend. See you next Monday for a new mailbag.

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