Winners and Losers from Kings-Pacers' Domantas Sabonis-Tyrese Haliburton Trade
To whomever ordered yet another big NBA trade between two non-contenders: Your custom-made, piping-hot menu item is now ready.
The Indiana Pacers are leaning further into their roster renovation, sending Domantas Sabonis, Justin Holiday, Jeremy Lamb and a 2023 second-round pick to the retooling-or-something Sacramento Kings for Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield and Tristan Thompson, according to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. Indiana also creates a $10.5 million traded player exception as part of the deal, per ESPN's Bobby Marks.
Swaps including 25-year-old All-Stars are always notable transactions, but this agreement, in particular, speaks volumes about the long-term directions of two franchises that have spent the lion's share of this season in complete lurch.
Put another way: Whoa.
Did the Pacers adequately arm themselves for an abbreviated rebuild? Just what is it that the Kings are doing? Which players involved stand to benefit most? Is anyone tangentially related adversely impacted by this blockbuster?
You know the drill. It's time to sift through the biggest winners and losers from the second installment of Tuesday's chaos.
To Be Determined: Sacramento Kings
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Let us begin this exercise with a riveting onrush of indecision.
There is an immediate inclination to scribble "#Kangz" and just move on. Trading no worse than the franchise's second-most important building block for a really good player who augurs as a questionable fit alongside De'Aaron Fox is painfully on-brand for Sacramento—in some ways.
In other ways, though, the Kings are finally doing, or at least attempting to do, what's been demanded of them for approximately six eternities: something, anything, literally at all, that implies disdain toward contending for only 10th-place finishes and still coming up short.
Sabonis is, without question, the best player in this deal, someone who can control the glass and serve as the central nervous system for an entire offense. He is a sturdy screen-setter, has some F-U to his interior finishing and can navigate the floor with the ball in his hands. His vision and decision-making are cornerstone material; he can devastate defenses with passing reads from actual standstills.
That talent play—which the Kings are making without surrendering a future draft pick—is bold and arguably necessary. But it isn't totally clarifying.
Optimizing Sabonis is best done through spacing and cutters. The Kings are light on both. Shedding Buddy Hield's contract (two years, $40.5 million) was likely a side benefit for them, but he and Haliburton lead the team in three-point makes. Harrison Barnes (40.6 percent) and Justin Holiday (37.8 percent) are now the only Kings players shooting above the league average of 34.9 percent from deep on at least one attempt per game.
It also isn't quite clear how well Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox (still out with an ankle injury) will fare together. The latter has never played beside a big as dynamic, but he's also most lethal when attacking at warp speed. Sabonis doesn't fit that mold.
Planting him somewhere on the perimeter can help alleviate disparate speeds, but it also rests on his becoming a higher-volume and more effective jump-shooter. He is canning just 30.9 percent of his triples over the past three seasons on two attempts per game and cleared 40 percent accuracy from mid-range twice in his career—and not since 2019-20.
Displacing Fox from the ball, meanwhile, does only so much given his own shaky shooting and half-court spacing that won't allow him to work off Sabonis like Malcolm Brogdon or Chris Duarte. This says nothing of the thorny fit up front between Sabonis and Richaun Holmes. (More on this shortly.)
Defaulting to skepticism is fine. The Kings gave up a lot—mainly a player without a discernible peak, in a great way. But they also got a lot while shaking things up. Greg Wissinger put it best for The Kings Herald: "I'm not ready to say this is a win...I'm also not ready to declare this a loss." And so, we wait—with open-yet-cautious minds.
Winner: Indiana Pacers (and Fans of Organizational Direction)
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Dealing Domantas Sabonis is an atypical move for the Pacers. They have historically valued proven performers and the certainty they offer amid restructurings. No one on the roster offered more surety than Sabonis. He always seemed like the least likely core player to be moved.
It is also somewhat bizarre Indiana shipped him out without getting a draft pick in return. Multiple first-round picks or the equivalent in young talent is the standard for these star divestitures.
This is not meant to imply the Pacers lost. You cannot immediately win a deal in which you give up the best player, but this move charts an organizational course. Indiana may not be consigning itself to a gradual rebuild, but it has at least firmly committed itself to a one-year reinvention.
Haliburton also just so happens to be worth multiple first-round picks and prospects on his own. His is a scalable brand of basketball not subject to the limitations so often inherent of those deemed plug-and-play.
He will have no trouble playing off Malcolm Brogdon, Chris Duarte, a healthy T.J. Warren, the on-ball indulgence of a healthy Myles Turner, etc. But he is also a hub unto himself. He can disarm set defenses with changes in speed, fling passes off the bounce and forge insta-chemistry with his bigs, both on their rim runs and with on-the-money lobs.
There is a passiveness to Haliburton's game that can foment frustration. He goes through protracted stretches in which he doesn't look for his own offense nearly enough. But he makes up for a deficit selfishness with the chops to eventually erase it. Among everyone who has attempted at least 100 off-the-dribble triples, only Mike Conley knocks his down at a clip (43.5 percent...!) higher than that from Haliburton (40.1 percent).
Teams rarely have the opportunity to bag this type of player, equal parts directional polestar and universal complement, in the second season of his rookie contract. And in doing so, the Pacers have afforded themselves the ultimate optionality.
Do they let the rest of this season play out, pick up a top-tier lottery pick and look to reenter the postseason chase, having held on to Brogdon (ineligible to be traded until April) and Myles Turner? Do they burn it down further and cannonball into an out-of-character rebuild, knowing they have two premier cracks at an All-NBA cornerstone in Haliburton and this year's pick? The choice is theirs. And after completing this move on top of acquiring two top-35 picks for Caris LeVert, there is no wrong answer.
Loser: Richaun Holmes (For Now)
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Sacramento now has two starting-caliber-or-better centers on its docket and just gave up a small ransom, in Tyrese Haliburton himself, to get one of them. That's not great news for the ever-underrated, floater-machine-extraordinaire Richaun Holmes.
Perhaps the Kings move the latter before 3 p.m. Thursday. Or maybe they try playing Holmes and Sabonis together.
Related: I wouldn't advise playing Holmes and Sabonis together, at least not for any meaningful or long stretches.
Despite stark differences in their modes of operation, they will inevitably need to occupy too many of the same spaces. For all of Sabonis' dynamism, his average shot distance checks in at 7.9 feet. Holmes' comes in at 5.5 feet.
This degree of geographical overlap—again, despite their vastly diverging skill sets—isn't tenable. Staggering their minutes will provide temporary respite, but keeping both is a gross misallocation of resources for a roster that remains light on pure wings.
Without another trade prior to the fast-approaching deadline, Holmes runs the risk of extreme marginalization and/or misapplication—an outright bummer for someone already on a contract that skews waaay more team- than player-friendly.
Winner: Richaun Holmes Trade Suitors
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Free. Richaun. Holmes.
No, he was not untouchable before now. If Tyrese Haliburton wasn't off limits, nobody else was, either.
But!
One would imagine the Kings are more motivated than ever to reroute Holmes, whereas they previously needed to approach his market value with relative indifference. Acquiring Domantas Sabonis doesn't mean they'll give him up for pennies on the dollar, but his utility is in danger of plunging if he sees his minutes slashed or is forced to play dual-big minutes with his newest teammate.
And that, in turn, should open the door for interested parties to pitch Sacramento on packages that don't unnecessarily mortgage the former's future. (Yes, I'm looking at you, Toronto.)
Oh, and if the Pacers really are bent on seeing a Tyrese Haliburton-Malcolm Brogdon-Myles Turner trio in action next season, Holmes' presumed availability should pique the attention of Turner admirers that don't want to belch out first-round compensation for the rights to overpay Christian Wood this summer or next.
To Be Determined: De'Aaron Fox
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Jettisoning Tyrese Haliburton at the peak of his powers can be interpreted one of two (primary) ways: Either Sacramento reaaally loves Domantas Sabonis, or it chose De'Aaron Fox over his junior backcourt partner.
Because the Kings never needed to decide between Fox and Haliburton, let's break character, give them the benefit of the doubt and assume this is all about Sabonis.
Fox stands to benefit regardless. Or actually, maybe not. As already noted, his fit with Sabonis isn't perfect—especially if the rest of this roster goes untouched.
But Haliburton's departure could portend more offensive control for Fox, who ceded a chunk of his playmaking duties to the sophomore under interim head coach Alvin Gentry.
But more floor-general responsibilities could also be a bad thing, since Fox's most efficient stretch of the season coincided with the exit of head coach Luke Walton.
But this move could just be a harbinger of the Kings' commitment to running a huge portion of the offense through Sabonis.
But doesn't that allow Fox to retain his current functional balance?
But, on the other hand, couldn't this mean he's bumped off the ball and forced to hone different methods of attack clunkier within dual-big lineups that skimp on breathing room?
But didn't we just say the Kings could still flip Holmes or stagger his minutes from Sabonis and assuage some of the dimensional tug-of-war?
But are we sure that even matters?
But—actually, let's stop here.
Winner: Buddy Hield...and the Kings...Potentially Tyrese Haliburton, as Well
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Buddy Hield and the Kings are better off without one another. Truly.
Sacramento will miss his lights-out, multifunctional shooting. And he should feel pretty good that they caved in negotiations in October 2019 and ponied up an extension that guaranteed him $94 million.
But when you've previously liked tweets joking about how you want to be rescued from the Kings, and when your body language more than occasionally crosses into the realm of all-consuming apathy, and when you were very publicly almost traded to the Los Angeles Lakers, you could use a change of scenery. And the Kings, for their part, should revel in the chance not to be asked about his future with the team and to not almost-but-not-actually trade him somewhere again.
Hield's long-term fit in Indiana is debatable. But he said it himself: He fits anywhere. Players downing more than 39 percent of their spot-up threes, splashing 38-plus percent of their pull-up treys and who can consistently torch defenses coming off screens enjoy that level of universality. Indiana has souped up its spacing if the rest of the roster remains intact, and Hield gets a fresh start. Win-win.
Tyrese Haliburton falls into the same boat. This is where some version of "#Kangzzz" is entirely appropriate. The Pacers have a more distinguishable vision in place. And yes, Sacramento remains the NBA capital of dysfunction.
The Kings fanbase genuinely adores Haliburton and what he represented. It was a cool from-afar dynamic. But he's joining a franchise that didn't just trade him two weeks after he declared an intention to—and fondness for the chance to—lead the organization out of the toxic wilderness. Maybe this isn't an immediate win for him. It also certainly isn't a loss.
Other Winners, Losers and TBDs
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To Be Determined: Offseason Malcolm Brogdon Suitors
Malcolm Brogdon cannot be traded by the deadline after signing a two-year, $45 million extension in October, and the Pacers may have no intention to deal him, period. But flipping Caris LeVert for draft picks and moving Domantas Sabonis at all could signal a real openness to rebuilding.
If the Pacers go that route, you better believe a throng of suitors will form a disorderly queue in hopes of winning the sweepstakes for a quasi-lead guard who can effectively play alongside just about anyone.
Potential Loser: Myles Turner Suitors
Conversely, Myles Turner admirers may be out of luck. His left foot injury either lowered his trade value or ensured the Pacers wouldn't move him until the offseason, when he's presumably healthy.
Now they might not move him at all.
Turner is apparently foaming at the mouth for the chance to be Indiana's primary big, per Woj. And keeping his combination of floor-spacing and rim protection makes a boatload of sense if the Pacers are angling for a quicker return to relevance.
This could, of course, be unified posturing—an attempt to drum up interest now or later. But anyone planning to join the hunt for Turner before Thursday or over the offseason better have a quality list of alternatives on the brain.
Winner: Myles Turner
Congrats on becoming the primary center in Indiana, big man!
To Be Determined: Monte McNair's Job Security in Sacramento
Team Governor Vivek Ranadive doesn't sign off on Haliburton's exit if general manager Monte McNair is on the hot seat. Only execs with a modicum of stability get to make a move of this magnitude. (Theoretically, anyway.)
Then again, McNair has just nudged the Kings in an all-in-like direction—at the expense of a huge draft-day success for which he and his people are responsible, no less. The exact endgame is unclear, but anytime you mortgage part of your future (i.e., Haliburton) in the name of win-now impact, you've put yourself on the clock.
And to that end, McNair may have left his mark on this roster in a way that ensures he'll be the person charged with naming a permanent head coach, but it is also he who will bear the burden of failure if Sabonis' fit doesn't pan out and the Kings remain stuck in sub-mediocrity by this time next season.
Winner: Kevin Pritchard's Job Security in Indiana
To be clear: Pacers president Kevin Pritchard was never portrayed as anyone other than the head basketball executive who would be responsible for jump-starting the next era of Indiana basketball.
Still, this move just about guarantees it.
The Pacers' direction is more pleasantly open-ended as a result, but Pritchard just unloaded the heart and soul of the team's offense without extracting draft compensation. Justifiable? Beyond so. But it's not a verdict you get to render unless you're assured of making all of the organization's other most important decisions for the foreseeable future.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass and accurate entering Tuesday's games. Salary information via Spotrac.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by NBA Math's Adam Fromal.
