Who Is the Best Offensive Player in MLB Heading into the 2022 Season?
At least until there's an official announcement to the contrary, we can go on believing that Major League Baseball's lockout will eventually conclude and the 2022 season will take place.
When that happens, well, batter up.
For kicks and giggles—and maybe to generate an argument or two—we've pondered which of MLB's offensive players is the best. This meant conjuring a list of 10 candidates and judging them by how well they hit, hit for power, get on base and run the bases. We also weighed any outstanding health question marks.
Though we've presented these 10 players is descending order, it's less of a ranking than a progressive consideration of how well they check the boxes. We ultimately wanted to land on the one hitter that, though maybe not altogether perfect, is the right combination of dangerous and well-rounded.
First, some honorable mentions.
Honorable Mentions
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Mookie Betts, RF, Los Angeles Dodgers
He'd be a candidate for the No. 1 spot if he were fresh off his 2018 season, in which he hit .346 with 32 home runs and 30 stolen bases. Four years later, though, that year is an outlier amid an offensive output that's otherwise more high-floor than high-ceiling.
Aaron Judge, RF, New York Yankees
He was in the 100th percentile for both exit velocity and hard-hit rate in 2021, so he has a strong case as baseball's most dangerous hitter when he makes contact. It's making consistent contact that's his problem. Besides, he's also generally not much of a threat on the bases.
Cedric Mullins, CF, Baltimore Orioles
To get diagnosed with Crohn's disease and then go out and have a 30-30 season anyway? That's darn impressive. The catch for our purposes is that Mullins' other numbers were more good than extraordinary, but we'll grant that he might have still more upside if he's in better shape now than he was going into 2021.
Trea Turner, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
Turner is coming off a year that saw him hit an MLB-high .328 with 28 homers and 32 steals, so not putting him in the top 10 is arguably an unforgivable crime. But sans a steady walk habit and eye-catching batted ball peripherals, he seems to have a hard ceiling as a hitter.
10. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Free Agent
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Age: 32
This list just wouldn't be valid if it didn't contain the most consistent hitter in baseball.
Freddie Freeman is the only hitter who's topped 250 plate appearances and a 130 OPS+ in each of the last nine seasons. In this span, his 162-game norms include a batting average in the .300s, an OBP near .400 and roughly 30 home runs.
So it went in 2021, and that's even though Atlanta's longtime star actually underachieved with the stick. Most notably including 86th and 87th percentile marks for his strikeout and walk rates, respectively, his batting peripherals were substantially above average across the board.
Freeman is even a pretty good baserunner in spite of his modest foot speed. It may not show in his stolen bases, but he generally takes an extra base on hits about half the time.
Yet if it feels like Freeman is always among the best hitters but never the best, there's some truth to that. To wit, he's never led the league in any of the triple-slash categories (i.e., AVG, OBP and SLG) even once.
9. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
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Age: 22
Even as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. struggled to live up to the hype in his first two seasons with the Toronto Blue Jays, paradoxically he also never seemed far from a proper superstar breakout.
Indeed, he more than held his own against major league pitching. Particularly in the way he posted strikeout rates in the teens, thereby bucking baseball's most alarming trend. He also took his walks when he could, so he really only needed to more consistently tap into his power.
In 2021, he did just that.
So good was Guerrero at hitting the ball on the screws, in fact, that he tallied 274 batted balls of at least 95 mph in addition to his 48 home runs. That's the most that any hitter has had in a single season since Statcast arrived in 2015. What's more, Guerrero only struck out 24 more times than he walked.
But while all this grants Guerrero entry into discussions of who's the best hitter in baseball, his overall offensive reputation still has an obvious detraction. On the bases, he's about as station-to-station as they come.
8. Kyle Tucker, RF, Houston Astros
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Age: 25
Little-known fact: Kyle Tucker was the best hitter in baseball for most of the 2021 season.
He had little to show for his fourth season with the Houston Astros through May 8. Then something clicked, and he went off for a .329/.394/.620 slash line and 25 homers the rest of the way. Per his 174 wRC+, his production from the batter's box outpaced even that of Bryce Harper and Juan Soto.
Tucker was a tough out, putting a 14.8 strikeout percentage against a walk rate of 9.8 percent. He also averaged a sturdy 91.6 mph on his batted balls. Not quite elite, but the same as Matt Olson and even better than Freeman.
Though Tucker isn't a burner, his 28-for-32 career success rate in stolen bases doesn't lie about his knack for opportunistic thefts. Likewise, he's more likely than not to take an extra base on hits.
Tucker still needs to show he can maintain superstar-level production across a full season. But if he does, the last five months of 2021 point to something like a 1.000 OPS, 30-plus homers and 20-plus steals.
7. Jose Ramirez, 3B, Cleveland Guardians
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Age: 29
You know you're a good offensive player when a 30-30 season is your baseline.
Jose Ramirez is one of very few players who can claim as such. Though his only actual 30-30 season was in 2018, he came close in 2021 and might have hit both marks in 2019 if he'd played in more than 129 games.
In raw terms, Ramirez is a better runner than he is a slugger. In 2021, his sprint speed was in the 77th percentile, while his exit velocity was only in the 66th percentile. The switch-hitter's secret weapon, though, is that he's baseball's best at hitting fly balls to his pull side. Such balls tend to clear fences.
The Cleveland Guardians can also count on Ramirez for good at-bats. Since he became a full-time player in 2016, he's maintained a nearly even distribution between strikeouts (12.2 percent) and walks (10.5 percent).
Even in spite of that, he's only put up a .286 average and a similarly unspectacular .364 on-base percentage. A more competent hitter than most, to be sure, but one whom pitchers can get out.
6. Ronald Acuna Jr., RF, Atlanta
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Age: 24
What would a supercharged version of Jose Ramirez look like? More or less like Ronald Acuna Jr.
Over the last four seasons, Acuna is one of only three hitters with at least 100 home runs and 75 stolen bases. And that's even though he played in only 111 games in 2018 and 82 in 2021.
The Atlanta star's power and speed is the stuff of scouts' dreams. His sprint speed, exit velocity and hard-hit rate all landed in the 97th percentile in 2021. He notably had three batted balls of at least 117 mph, including an unlikely homer against a slider on the outside corner.
Yet Acuna hasn't been content to let his physical tools carry him. His eye for the zone just keeps getting better, and it's helped him even out what had been a wide disparity between his strikeout and walk rates.
The elephant in the room, though, is Acuna's recovery from the ACL tear he suffered last July. Not just in the sense of when he'll be able to play but whether his power and speed will be what they were before the injury.
5. Mike Trout, CF, Los Angeles Angels
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Age: 30
Of course Mike Trout deserves a place in this discussion. He's literally Mike Trout. As in, that Mike Trout.
The same one with the three MVPs and the career .305/.419/.583 slash line. The same one who also led the majors in OPS+ annually between 2016 and 2019, and who would have done so again in 2021 if he'd had the plate appearances to qualify.
We all know what makes the Los Angeles Angels star tick. It's indeed from the Trout-ian mold that Acuna's power-speed combo is cut, yet neither Acuna's nor anyone else's eye for the strike zone is arguably as good as Trout's. To wit, his chase rate placed no lower than the 95th percentile between 2017 and 2020.
Like with Acuna, though, there's the question of what can be expected of Trout in 2022.
The right calf strain that put him on the injured list last May was only supposed to sideline him for six-to-eight weeks. Instead, he didn't play again. Perhaps his hitting will rebound just fine, but it's fair to speculate if he'll seek to preserve his legs and thus further diminish his already unspectacular baserunning production.
4. Shohei Ohtani, DH, Los Angeles Angels
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Age: 27
Regardless of what happens with Trout in 2022, the Angels can rest easy knowing that one of their pitchers is also a top-tier offensive superstar.
There were few cheapies among the 46 home runs Shohei Ohtani hit last season. Though Guerrero may have led in total hard-hit balls, Ohtani took the lead in barrels. Those take both exit velocity and launch angle into account.
In spite of a modest 53rd-percentile chase rate, Ohtani also drew walks at a 15 percent clip. One factor there was his improved discipline when he was behind in the count. He worked 23 walks after falling behind 0-1, or one fewer than he had in his first three seasons combined.
It's not unfair to hold Ohtani's 10 caught-stealings against him, but it's also hard to blame him for wanting to show off his speed. It's legit, ranking in the 91st percentile last year.
However, greater efficiency on the bases isn't the biggest thing holding Ohtani back. It's strikeouts. With his two highest strikeout rates coming in the last two seasons, he's actually going backward in that regard.
3. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, San Diego Padres
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Age: 23
Fernando Tatis Jr. missed 32 of the San Diego Padres' games last year. He still led the National League in home runs and finished third in stolen bases.
The fact that he was only caught stealing four times underscores how discerning he is with his attempts. Still, his speed helps. Among shortstops who made at least 100 competitive runs last season, he placed fourth in average sprint speed.
A hitter who's that fleet of foot perhaps has no business also being the game's most powerful slugger. Yet upon contact, Tatis' .618 expected slugging percentage was the best in baseball last year. Even better than Ohtani. Than Guerrero. Than Judge.
This helps explain why Tatis' walk rate is evolving even though he still has a tendency (40th percentile in 2021) to expand the zone. Pitchers just don't like challenging him, especially when he's ahead in the count.
Rather, where Tatis' iffy discipline is still plainly evident is in his extraordinary propensity for whiffs. Those are strikes against him, though his decision not to have surgery on his compromised left shoulder also has the potential to bite him in 2022.
2. Bryce Harper, RF, Philadelphia Phillies
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Age: 29
Bryce Harper may never again reach the heights of his 2015 season, in which he slammed 42 home runs and became the first hitter since Barry Bonds to achieve an OPS+ as high as 198.
He did, however, come admirably close last season. He led the majors in slugging, OPS and OPS+, and that was even though his expected metrics were actually down from 2020.
Patience and power are the two-time MVP's primary calling cards. To the former, he's drawn more walks than anyone else over the last four seasons. To the latter, Tatis loses his xSLG-on-contact lead to Harper if the sample size is expanded from just 2021 to also include 2020.
It's also no accident that Harper doesn't strike out a ton (22.4 percent in 2021) even though he swings and misses more than anyone else on the Philadelphia Phillies. He's quietly one of the league's better two-strike hitters, batting a sturdy .218 in such occasions last year.
Harper is also an above-average runner who's swiped double-digit bags in six of his 10 seasons, including 2021. It all makes "What more could you ask for?" a good question in his case.
1. Juan Soto, RF, Washington Nationals
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Age: 23
In almost every scenario, the worst thing a hitter can do is make an out. It's a good look for Juan Soto, then, that he's the best there is at not doing so.
His OBPs of .406 and .401 from 2018 and 2019 were stupendous enough on their own, yet he's nonetheless launched himself into an entirely different stratosphere since then. He's gotten on base at a .471 clip over the last two years, a better rate than anyone else by 45 percentage points.
You can't do something like that without a steady stream of walks, but Soto also so seldom strikes out that he's the only qualified hitter with a walk-to-strikeout ratio north of 1.0 over the last two years.
Also, don't let last year's modest output of 29 home runs fool you. As marked by rising exit velocity and hard-hit rates, Soto's power is trending toward elite. A jump to 35 or even 40 homers is well within his reach.
On the basepaths, Soto was 23-for-28 stealing bases in his first three seasons and didn't actually slow down even as he went just 9-for-16 last year. So on top of everything else, he should also have double-digit steal potential in 2022.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
