Sugar Bowl 2022: Odds, Daily Fantasy Tips for Baylor vs. Ole Miss

Joe Tansey@JTansey90Featured ColumnistDecember 31, 2021

Mississippi quarterback Matt Corral (2) tries to get around Mississippi State cornerback Martin Emerson (1) during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Thursday, Nov. 25, 2021, in Starkville, Miss. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)
Rogelio V. Solis/Associated Press

The Baylor Bears and Ole Miss Rebels were two of the most surprising Power Five squads this season. 

Baylor won the Big 12 Championship Game in Dave Aranda's second year as head coach. The Bears relied on their defense to end the playoff hopes of the Oklahoma State Cowboys. 

Ole Miss was in and around the Top 10 for most of Lane Kiffin's second year in charge. The Rebels emerged as the second-place team in the SEC West behind the Alabama Crimson Tide. 

Ole Miss approaches games in a much different way than Baylor. Kiffin's pass-heavy offense likes to get up and down the field, while the Bears have no trouble with winning games in the 20s. 

The Sugar Bowl serves as the last collegiate game for Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral, who was considered a Heisman Trophy favorite in the early stages of the season.

Corral provides Baylor with one of its toughest tests yet, and that should make the New Year's Day game in New Orleans one of the most fascinating matchups of bowl season. 


Sugar Bowl Info

Date: Saturday, January 1

Start Time: 8:45 p.m. ET 


Live Stream: ESPN.com and ESPN app


Game Odds

Spread: Ole Miss (-1)

Over/Under: 55.5

Money Line: Ole Miss (-125; bet $125 to win $100); Baylor (+105; bet $100 to win $105)


Daily Fantasy Tips

Take Matt Corral In Ole Miss Send-Off

Matt Corral will play his final game in Ole Miss colors on New Year's Day.

After that, the junior quarterback shifts his focus to the 2022 NFL Draft and a potential first-round selection.

Corral threw for 20 touchdowns and four interceptions in his final collegiate season. Fourteen of those scoring throws occurred in the first six games. 

He has still put up a ton of passing yards, but the touchdowns have been more spread out across the Ole Miss offense since the middle of October. 

Corral averaged 31.6 pass attempts and 278.3 passing yards per game, so he is expected to put up decent totals on the Baylor defense. 

The Bears give up 19.2 points per game, but they have allowed some decent-sized concessions through the air at 230.8 pass yards allowed per contest. 

Corral will be playing with more motivation than most players in the New Year's Six bowls. He will try to go out on a high with Ole Miss while making one final in-game impression on NFL scouts. 

He averaged 259 passing yards in his four matchups against ranked foes in SEC play, so we should expect a similar total and a few touchdowns from Corral in New Orleans. 


Show Trust in Baylor's Abram Smith

Baylor's offensive edge comes on the ground.

Abram Smith ran for 1,429 yards and 12 touchdowns and he should find plenty of holes inside the Ole Miss defense. 

Ole Miss gives up 427.8 total yards per game and it conceded 182 yards per contest on the ground. 

Smith produced over 140 yards in Top 25 matchups with the Oklahoma Sooners and BYU Cougars, and he was three yards away from the century mark in the regular-season matchup with Oklahoma State.

Smith was slowed down a bit in his second meeting with Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship Game, but he still managed 3.7 yards per carry. 

Baylor should try to dictate the tempo through its ground attack, and if that is successful, it will keep Corral off the field for long periods. 

The Bears can win the Sugar Bowl with a measured approach that takes chunks of time off the clock, and Smith will be the focal point of that game plan. 


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