MLB MVP 2021: Odds Projections and Predictions for AL, NL Races

Shohei Ohtani and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. used the final few months of the Major League Baseball season as their battleground for the American League Most Valuable Player award.

Guerrero was expected to be one of the award front-runners with the Toronto Blue Jays in playoff contention. Toronto did not reach its ultimate postseason goal, but Guerrero still turned in fantastic numbers. 

Ohtani and the Los Angeles Angels were not in the postseason mix, but he found a way to entertain us almost every night he swung the bat. 

Over in the National League, another non-playoff team boasted a top MVP candidate. Bryce Harper tried to help the Philadelphia Phillies reach the postseason, but that task came up short despite some impressive second-half numbers from the outfielder. 

Harper's numbers suggest he should be awarded with the NL MVP in November, but Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. could make cases for themselves as well. 

American League

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Projected Odds: Shohei Ohtani (+100), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+150)

It felt like the two best players in the American League were involved in a nightly duel across time zones to prove who was the better player. 

Ohtani finished with 46 home runs, 100 RBI and a .965 OPS. Guerrero hit 48 long balls, drove in 111 runs and recorded a 1.002 OPS. 

Although Guerrero had better power numbers, Ohtani could have the edge over the Toronto first baseman because of what he also contributed on the mound. 

Ohtani went 9-2 with a 3.18 ERA. He struck out 156 batters over 130.1 innings of work in 23 starts for the Angels.

Ohtani's mound mastery and plate power make him one of the most unique MVP candidates to ever exist. 

The case in Ohtani's favor gets stronger when you realize he put up his batting numbers without Mike Trout in the lineup for most of the season.

Ohtani had no security around him in the lineup, but he still found a way to terrorize opposing pitchers and put up ridiculous numbers. 

Guerrero thrived as the main power source in a loaded Blue Jays lineup. It would not be a surprise to see Toronto second baseman Marcus Semien pop up in third-or-fourth-place spots on some ballots because of his offensive output.

Guerrero deserves a ton of recognition for the numbers he put up, but Ohtani's pitching totals are hard to ignore in the comparison of the two players. 

Ohtani is one of the most unique players we have ever seen and he delivered a season for the ages in both aspects of the game.

Prediction: Shohei Ohtani

National League

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

Projected Odds: Bryce Harper (-115), Juan Soto (+130), Fernando Tatis Jr. (+160)

Harper's bat came alive during the Phillies' failed quest for the NL East title. 

Harper hit 18 home runs in August and September. He recorded an OPS above 1.100 in each of those months. 

While Harper was busy keeping Philadelphia in the pennant race, Tatis and the San Diego Padres plummeted in the opposite direction.

San Diego went from potential playoff team to on the outside looking in what felt like the snap of a finger. Tatis finished with 42 home runs, 97 RBI and a .945 OPS. 

While those are respectable numbers, Tatis was injured for a stretch of the regular season and was not as effective as Harper during his team's final playoff push.

Juan Soto is the wild-card to the MVP discussion. He produced 29 home runs, 95 RBI and a .999 OPS despite playing on a Washington Nationals team that was gutted at the trade deadline. 

Soto finished the regular season with three consecutive months with an OPS over 1.000. He had a 1.256 OPS in September. 

Soto is worthy of some first-place votes, but he may not do enough to catch Harper, who captivated the MVP race with his play down the stretch in a pennant race.

Prediction: Bryce Harper