Fluke or Trend: Will NBA's Biggest Disappointments Turn It Around?
With less than a week until the 2021-22 NBA campaign starts, we're smack in the middle of optimism season.
Whatever went wrong last year is in the past. Forgotten. Powerless to affect the future. Every misstep, slip-up or otherwise dispiriting failure means nothing.
Except...we know that's not quite true. Sometimes, the past really is prologue. Occasionally, the tough times are here to stay.
Here, we'll separate some of last year's biggest disappointments into two groups: those that will reverse course in 2021-22, and those that look more like the new normal.
Golden State Warriors
1 of 5
The Golden State Warriors missed the playoffs in 2020-21, losing twice in the play-in round and heading home early for the second successive season. The team's offense was a wreck whenever Stephen Curry didn't play, Draymond Green's three-point shooting trended down for the fifth consecutive year, supplementary playmakers were nowhere to be found, No. 2 pick James Wiseman was a raw, unready disappointment and Klay Thompson didn't play a single minute while recovering from a torn Achilles.
For a team not far removed from five straight trips to the Finals, the travails of 2020-21 were hard to handle.
Fortunately for the Dubs, their struggles won't extend into the upcoming campaign.
Curry, still an MVP candidate after collecting a scoring title this past season, now has an ascendant Jordan Poole at his side to help keep the offense running. Added shooting from free-agent signees Otto Porter Jr. and Nemanja Bjelica should improve spacing, and Wiseman's unpreparedness for the NBA game shouldn't matter as much after the Warriors realized late last year that small ball was the key to unlocking the best version of themselves.
Green's shooting? Well, not everything reverses course.
Golden State finished the regular season on a 15-5 surge marked by quick-trigger passing, downsized lineups and the same carefree, borderline reckless vibe that defined its dynastic run. More talented even before factoring in Thompson's return (whenever that happens), boasting a handful of young players with serious potential and driven to reclaim their spot among the West's best, the Warriors won't make it a third straight throwaway season.
Instead, they'll compete for a top-four spot in the conference and enter the playoffs as an explosive, experienced team no opponent will want to face.
Verdict: Fluke
Kemba Walker, New York Knicks
2 of 5
Decline comes for everyone, but it tends to arrive most swiftly and irreversibly for slight, speed-dependent guards. This is rough news for Kemba Walker, who played just 43 games last season (after 56 the year prior).
The four-time All-Star's knee kept him shuttling in and out of the Boston Celtics lineup and cost him some measure of his turn-the-corner burst. Walker still averaged 19.3 points per game on a 55.9 true shooting percentage that graded out just a hair below the league average, but the Celtics' decision to move him with a first-round draft pick attached this past offseason was the better indicator of his diminishing value.
That the Oklahoma City Thunder couldn't find a taker for Walker and ultimately waived him was an even clearer signal.
There's a ton to like about Walker winding up with the New York Knicks for 2021-22. The hometown angle has real appeal, and New York needs someone who can do what Walker does on offense. Or, more accurately, it needs someone who can do what Walker used to do. The Knicks didn't invest much, inking him to a two-year, $17.9 million deal, and that's for the best.
With his knee limiting availability and two successive years of visible athletic slippage, Walker shouldn't be paid or counted on like a true star anymore.
Here's hoping this all turns out to be laughably wrong, and the Knicks get at least one full season of near-peak Walker as they try to improve on last year's surprising playoff visit. However, the smart money is on his slide continuing.
Verdict: Trend
Toronto Raptors
3 of 5
The Toronto Raptors weren't just a run-of-the-mill underachiever last year. For a franchise only two years removed from a championship, and just one from reaching Game 7 of the East semifinals, a 27-45 record was a shocking result.
It was Toronto's worst winning percentage since 2011-12.
A vagabond season with "home" games played in Tampa didn't exactly set the Raps up to succeed, and the franchise made some unsubtle tanking efforts down the stretch. But still, 2020-21 was brutal.
Heading into a season without Kyle Lowry and with Pascal Siakam shelved for a few weeks following shoulder surgery, Toronto might seem unlikely to haul itself out of the hole. But OG Anunoby profiles as a breakout star, Fred VanVleet doesn't know how to play at anything less than full bore and everyone seems to forget that Goran Dragic is still a helpful starter. Toss in the possibility that Precious Achiuwa might pop, head coach Nick Nurse's stylistic malleability and rookie Scottie Barnes' upside, and there's plenty of reason for optimism.
This may seem like cheating, but it's also useful to know that the difference between Toronto's expected and actual win totals was the largest in the league last year. Based on their point differential, the Raps should have had an extra six wins (if 2020-21 had been an 82-game season). Technically, all Toronto has to do to reverse the trend is trust its luck will normalize.
Maybe that puts too much stock in a title season delivered mainly by two players—Lowry and Kawhi Leonard—who are no longer with the franchise. But there must be such a thing as championship residue; it has to matter that several key figures still with the organization know what it takes to reach the mountaintop. And three of them—Anunoby, VanVleet and Siakam—are in or entering their primes.
Barring another late-season tank job, which actually might be more likely with top executive Masai Ujiri's new contract justifying a long-view approach, the Raptors simply can't finish with nearly 20 more losses than wins again.
Instead, pencil Toronto in for a potentially terrifying defense that propels it into the 45-50 win range.
Verdict: Fluke
Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers
4 of 5
You hate to foreclose on the possibility of change, especially in the case of Ben Simmons who is only 25. But after one of the most conspicuously disappointing playoff performances in memory—on the heels of four straight seasons without marked improvements—expecting evolution is an act of sheer faith.
There's no evidence to indicate Simmons will ever level up. His scoring, rebounding and assist numbers have barely budged since his rookie year. Stats aside, Simmons is also virtually unchanged from an aesthetic standpoint. His game today looks exactly like it did in 2017-18.
Simmons' decision to end his holdout and report to the Philadelphia 76ers is about recouping lost money and adjusting the optics of a stalemate that's not doing Simmons or the Sixers any good. It's not a sign of meaningful change.
Whenever Philadelphia does trade Simmons, the acquiring team will be getting a three-time All-Star, an elite defender and a transition nightmare. But said team will also have to understand that Simmons, while capable of helping guide a team to the playoffs, has shown over and over again that his value diminishes as the postseason stakes elevate.
The Sacramento Kings and Minnesota Timberwolves would theoretically be happy with a player they knew was good enough to get them to the playoffs—even if they also knew that player couldn't get them out of the second round.
Simmons isn't going to change, but maybe everyone will be better off if his surroundings do.
Verdict: Trend
Utah Jazz
5 of 5
Not every season that ends short of a title is a failure, but try telling that to the Utah Jazz. They dominated the West in 2020-21 and were still knocked out of the playoffs in wrenching fashion.
Again.
Utah has exited five straight postseasons too early than expected. Sure, Donovan Mitchell's ankle was less than 100 percent during Utah's latest postseason disappointment. And yes, Mike Conley only saw 26 minutes of action in six games against Los Angeles. But everyone faces some level of health-related adversity in the playoffs.
Utah's perimeter defense collapsed against the Clips, and Rudy Gobert couldn't plug all the holes in the dam. The roster that fell short so recently is almost unchanged, unless you're sold on the transformative power of 35-year-old Rudy Gay.
Why, after so many similarly disappointing results, should we expect anything different in 2021-22?
Well, for starters, because we know the Jazz are going to shred the conference during the regular season again. Extreme year-to-year roster continuity means Utah could probably start the season without training camp or practice and hit the ground running with top-10 units on both offense and defense. Head coach Quin Snyder's system has worked every year, and the talent in Utah is only getting better at executing it after so many reps.
More than that, I think we're too quick to dismiss the value of failure. Why should the Jazz's repeated playoff disappointments break them? Why, instead, can't they forge Utah into something stronger?
Dwyane Wade is a part owner in Utah now. Fall seven times, stand up eight, right?
After a half-decade of running into the wall, the Jazz have every chance of finally busting through.
Verdict: Fluke
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.
