B/R Roundtable: Discussing the Biggest Questions of the 2021 MLB Playoffs
Before the 2021 MLB postseason officially gets underway on Tuesday night with the AL Wild Card Game between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, Bleacher Report MLB writers Joel Reuter and Zachary Rymer sat down to discuss the biggest questions surrounding the upcoming playoffs.
On the docket was the following:
- American League favorite
- National League favorite
- World Series dark horse
- Player under the most pressure
- Postseason breakout star
- Thing that will decide the playoffs
- Thing you would change about the playoffs
The conversation flowed, the takes were varying levels of hot, and there was at least one reference to The Matrix.
If your interest isn't already piqued, I'm not sure what else there is to say.
Off we go with our MLB postseason roundtable discussion.
Who Is the American League Favorite?
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Rymer: So, Joel. We meet again. As much as I want to do a deep dive into, say, Frank Zappa's discography with you, I guess now's the time to talk about the Major League Baseball playoffs. Let's start in the American League, which seems to be more wide-open than the National League.
Reuter: Consider Zappa tabled for another time. I'm inclined to agree that the AL is more wide open. Maybe that makes the 100-win Tampa Bay Rays a boring choice, but I'm going with them anyway. I can't wait to see how Kevin Cash deploys a pitching staff that only had three guys top 120 innings in 2021. We might not see a Rays starter pitch more than four innings all postseason, and that's going to make it awfully difficult for an opposing lineup to settle in. That unique approach to utilizing a staff, coupled with the fact that the Rays are suddenly an offensive dynamo that led the majors in runs scored after the All-Star break, makes them the team to beat on the AL side.
Rymer: I frankly can't disagree that the Rays are the favorite to represent the Junior Circuit. It does kinda scare me that they don't have any true aces in their starting rotation, but Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen have been solid, and Shane Baz has really good stuff. And you're right about their offense. That was the closest thing they had to a weakness in 2020, but not this year. And especially not since the All-Star break, as their 120 wRC+ in the second half beat out even the Blue Jays for the top mark in baseball.
If I had to make a case for another team, I think I'm ready to fall out of love with the White Sox and give it to the Astros. The White Sox are like The Men Who Stare at Goats of baseball teams in that the cast is good, but the whole thing just doesn't work as well as it should. The Astros pitch better than they get credit for, and I like that their offense was pretty much the same whether they were playing a contender or a pretender.
Reuter: My big issue with the White Sox is when is the last time they played a game that mattered? They've been 8-10 games up in the division since early July. It's not always easy to flip the switch when you've been coasting. So I agree—sign me up for a TB vs. HOU rematch in the ALCS. Look at us on the same page. This isn't going to be a very fun read if this continues. On to the National League side...
Who Is the National League Favorite?
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Rymer: On to the National League indeed, where...well, are you Team Giants or Team Dodgers? I feel like there's no wrong pick there, but I can't help but lean toward the Dodgers and their menagerie of stars. Max Scherzer! Mookie Betts! Trea Turner! Other names followed by exclamation marks! To me, they're about as good as the sum of their parts, whereas the Giants are probably better. Or maybe less, now that Brandon Belt is out with an injury.
Reuter: Walker Buehler! Corey Seager! Julio Urias! Justin Turner! You're not wrong—there are a lot of exclamation point-worthy players on that Dodgers roster, and it's a lot of guys who have been there before and won't be intimidated by the bright lights of October. They still need to survive Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals, though, which is far from a foregone conclusion.
With that in mind, I'm actually going to choose Door No. 3 and say the Milwaukee Brewers are my pick as NL favorites. I've compared them to the 2005 Chicago White Sox frequently this season, and I'll do it again here. I truly believe Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta and that bullpen, even without Devin Williams, is the kind of staff a team could ride all the way to a title even with a mediocre offense. I'll give you a moment to recover from such a spicy take.
Rymer: I mean, if any wrench is going to get lodged in the Dodgers-Giants gears, it has to be the Brewers, right? Their pitching is just exquisite. What worries me, though, is whether they have enough offensive oomph to play deep into October. Their offense wasn't particularly good overall, and it was downright bad after the trade deadline—a 92 wRC+ and only 67 homers. I don't know if that dog will hunt.
Reuter: Yeah, the 2005 White Sox comparison does fall apart a bit when you realize there's no Paul Konerko or Jermaine Dye on this Brewers roster. Still, I'm buying that pitching doing enough heavy lifting for the Brewers to punch their ticket to the Fall Classic.
Who Is Your Dark Horse World Series Contender?
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Reuter: So we've covered who we think should be considered the favorite in each league. Now, who's your dark horse title contender? Who's the team that could really shake things up this October and spoil the party for the favorites?
Rymer: I guess it has to be a team we haven't already talked about yet, so I'll say Atlanta before you get a chance. I'm a sucker for teams that hit home runs, and they hit more than every team except Toronto and San Francisco. Its pitching also finished strong with a 3.35 ERA in September, mainly thanks to Max Fried and Charlie Morton.
So, there, now you can't say Atlanta. Who ya got?
Reuter: I was 1000% going to say Atlanta...
So instead, I'll go with the St. Louis Cardinals and another mid-2000s comparison. This team reminds me a lot of the 2007 Colorado Rockies, who were an afterthought before they went 13-1 to close out the regular season and forced a Game 163. They snagged a wild-card berth in that extra game, then swept the Phillies and D-backs to reach the World Series.
The Cardinals are 21-4 in their last 25 games, and that momentum is hard to ignore.
Rymer: Ah, the Cardinals. I suppose someone had to mention them, but I just don't see it. Adam Wainwright is great, but they're supposed to get through October with post-post-post-prime versions of Jon Lester and J.A. Happ as their other starters? Good luck with that.
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Who Is Under the Most Pressure to Perform This Postseason?
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Rymer: I guess Jon Lester and J.A. Happ could both qualify as the one player who's under the most pressure to perform this October, but I gotta go with Gerrit Cole in that regard. He's been up and down ever since MLB took sticky stuff away from him and everyone else, and I don't see how the Yankees last for long if he doesn't live up to his $324 million contract.
And on that note, a penny for your thoughts on this one.
Reuter: There is definitely a strong case to be made that Cole is the single most important player to his team's chances of reaching the World Series. And isn't it funny how a $324 million contract has a way of putting a guy under a microscope?
I'm going to focus on someone who is looking to "secure the bag" himself, as the kids say: San Francisco Giants ace Kevin Gausman.
The 30-year-old was terrific over his final two regular-season starts, but he's been a bit inconsistent since the All-Star break. If he gets lit up in October, it's probably going to cost him a decent chunk of change in free agency and torpedo the Giants' chances of making a deep run. On the other hand, a brilliant postseason would only increase his earning power and better position San Francisco for success.
Rymer: Ooh, Gausman is a good pull here. The Giants must be thrilled with his two final tune-ups, in which he allowed two runs with 16 strikeouts over 13 innings. But yeah, there's never any telling whether Gausman the Jekyll or Gausman the Hyde will show up.
Who Will Be the Breakout Star of the 2021 Postseason?
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Rymer: On the other end of the spectrum, who do you have as your breakout star? I'm gonna go ahead and name-drop Shane Baz again. I know he only made three starts for the Rays this season, but in those, he showed off some truly electric stuff. He also throws strikes, so I can see him playing a pivotal role either as a starter as a multi-inning reliever if the Rays do indeed make a deep playoff run.
Reuter: Matt Moore only made three appearances and pitched 9.1 innings as a September call-up for the Rays in 2011, and he ended up starting Game 1 of the ALDS and throwing seven shutout innings that year, so there is some precedent for Tampa Bay turning a young, inexperienced arm loose in October. Love the Baz pick!
I'm going way outside the box with mine and saying Matt Beaty of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
That shoulder injury Max Muncy suffered on Sunday didn't look good, and he's already been deemed "unlikely" to play in the NL Wild Card Game and NLDS. That creates a hole at first base that could be filled by Beaty. He hit .270/.363/.402 with seven home runs and 40 RBI in 234 plate appearances as a part-time player this year, including home runs on Friday and Sunday, and could make a name for himself this postseason.
Rymer: If nothing else, Beaty can hit himself some right-handers. The Dodgers seem to be able to grow guys like him, probably in gooey pods like in The Matrix.
The Thing That Will Decide the World Series Winner Is...
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Rymer: Enough of this. Let's go big picture now. What's going to be the thing that decides this year's World Series? Pick a thing. Any thing.
Reuter: Maybe it's an overly simplified answer, but I think bullpen work is going to decide the 2021 postseason.
The Oakland Athletics led the majors with 894 innings pitched by their starters this season. Five years ago, that total would have ranked 19th in the majors. A decade ago, it would have been 29th. Teams just aren't letting their starters pitch as deep into games anymore, and managers are going to be even quicker with the hook in the postseason. Guys who can get more than three outs like Aaron Ashby (MIL), Jonathan Loaisiga (NYY) and Andrew Kittredge (TB) have a chance to be October stars.
Rymer: No argument here, though I will point out that the average innings per start went up from 4.8 in 2020 to 5.0 this year. Progress!
For me, it's home runs. It's always home runs. To wit, the team that won the home run battle in the World Series also won the title in 2020, 2018, 2017 and 2016. The only exception in the last five years was in 2019, but only because the Astros and Nationals each hit 11 home runs.
One Thing I Would Change About the MLB Postseason Is...
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Rymer: This is where we could discuss whether the ever-increasing reliance on relievers and home runs in the playoffs is good for baseball, but for all I know you're fine with this and would prefer to change something else about the postseason. Go ahead and lay a take on me.
Reuter:If I'm changing one thing about the postseason, I'm opening the door to more teams, albeit not in quite the same free-for-all way as the 2020 playoffs. I loved last year's expanded postseason field, but I think giving a sub-.500 team in the No. 8 seed a chance to upend the team with the No. 1 seed simply by winning two of three waters down the regular season in a dangerous way.
I'd propose a six-team field from each league, with the three division winners and three wild cards reseeded based on regular season record. The two teams with the best record get a bye on to the Division Series, while the other four play a best-of-three play-in series. That places more value on a long regular season and would reward a team like the 2021 Dodgers rather than forcing them to play in a win-or-go-home game.
Surely you have some sort of postseason tweak in mind as well...
Rymer: I gotta tell ya, I'm a hard no on expanding the postseason. It made sense as a sort of second chance for teams following last year's 60-game season, but I see no need to open the door to more teams after a 162-game season. If you can't get in the playoffs after that many games, you probably don't deserve to.
I would stick with the 10-team field but pivot to NBA-style seeding where division standings take a back seat to overall records. This way, the Wild Card Game would be a put-up-or-shut-up game for the lowest-seeded teams in each league, while clearly superior teams like the Dodgers would skip to the front of the line.
Also, I'd prefer it if Vin Scully came out of retirement to call every single game. Or, failing that, an A.I. recreation of Vin Scully's voice, mannerisms and storytelling mastery. Is that too much to ask?
Reuter: We can agree on Vin Scully at least. I'd listen to that man read the dictionary. It's been a pleasure as always, sir! Here's to an exciting postseason!
Rymer:It wouldn't surprise me if Vin Scully was actually reading a dictionary right now. In any case, this has indeed been a delightful conversation. I can't believe the postseason is already here, but I likewise plan on enjoying it. Excelsior!
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.
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