Start, Bench or G-League? Predictions for Every 1st-Round NBA Draft Pick
Plenty of rookies could take on meaningful roles right away in the 2021-22 NBA season.
Even some picks in the teens might wind up starting. But there are also a handful of projects who went to veteran teams and will likely spend more time in the G League than the NBA.
Here, we've predicted how each 2021 first-round pick will spend the majority of his rookie season: as a starter, bench player or G Leaguer.
1. Cade Cunningham (Detroit Pistons, PG/SG)
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Prediction: Starter
Role: High-usage scorer, secondary playmaker
ROY Odds: +250
Cade Cunningham will start for the Detroit Pistons. The big question is how he'll be used with Killian Hayes.
Hayes figures to operate as the lineup's more traditional point guard, while Cunningham will likely spend more time off the ball thanks to his sharper catch-and-shoot game. Still, the 2021 No. 1 overall pick should be in line for heavy usage and the second-most shots of any Pistons player behind Jerami Grant.
Between that workload and Cunningham's athletic limitations and suspect feel for finishing in crowds, he could have a low field-goal percentage. But his self-creation, shot-making versatility and shooting accuracy should immediately translate to routine buckets.
2. Jalen Green (Houston Rockets, SG)
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Prediction: Starter
Role: High-usage scorer
ROY Odds: +270
No. 2 overall pick Jalen Green figures to lead all rookies in scoring. Veteran point guard John Wall will not play for the Houston Rockets as the two sides work toward a trade, per Shams Charania of The Athletic, which opens more opportunities for the No. 2 pick to create.
Veteran big man Christian Wood will still get top-option usage, but so will Green. He's a highly advanced self-creator and shot-maker with the quickness and bounce to continue getting his separation.
He should have one of the greenest lights in the league on a young team prioritizing player development over its place in the standings.
Unlike last year's rookie scoring leader Anthony Edwards, who initially struggled while adjusting to a bench role and secondary touches, Green will be a go-to option right away. It could lead to an inefficient start, but his comfort level may rise earlier than Edwards' did last season as well.
3. Evan Mobley (Cleveland Cavaliers, PF/C)
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Prediction: Bench
Role: Interchangeable big, defensive ace
ROY Odds: +850
Evan Mobley seemed like a better bet to start for the Cleveland Cavaliers on draft night than he does today.
The Cavs' decision to re-sign Jarrett Allen and acquiring Lauri Markkanen via sign-and-trade suggests they're serious about making a jump up the standings. Though Mobley has flashed enticing perimeter skill, Markkanen is the cleaner fit next to Allen and is more capable of helping Cleveland win now.
This year, the Cavaliers will value Mobley's finishing and defensive versatility the most. His glimpses of open-floor ball-handling, face-up moves and jumpers will get them excited for the future, but he isn't likely to execute these type of plays consistently as a rookie.
Due to his lack of strength, shooting range and projected usage, the No. 3 overall pick won't be able to compete with the top two for Rookie of the Year votes. But with his easy baskets, post passing, ability to play outside the paint, shot-blocking and switchability, Mobley could still play a valuable role for his team this year.
4. Scottie Barnes (Toronto Raptors, F/C)
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Prediction: Starter
Role: Two-way glue guy
ROY Odds: +1300
With Pascal Siakam still recovering from shoulder surgery, Scottie Barnes figures to begin the season in the Toronto Raptors' starting lineup. But Siakam's eventual return shouldn't dramatically affect the rookie's minutes or role.
Barnes offers a rare, valued mix of skills and intangibles, plus the versatility for head coach Nick Nurse to play him at multiple positions. At some point, he's likely to consider using Barnes (225 lbs, 7'3" wingspan) as a playmaking 5 next to Siakam.
Otherwise, as long as there are shooters on the floor, he'll be an interchangeable forward who can initiate offense, pass within it, score around the key with his length, lock down wings and challenge bigs.
Barnes won't put up huge numbers like the other top rookies, but his impact, energy and competitiveness should keep him regularly involved.
5. Jalen Suggs (Orlando Magic, PG)
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Prediction: Starter
Role: Lead guard
ROY Odds: +650
With Markelle Fultz still recovering from a torn ACL and Cole Anthony more comfortable scoring than running offense, Jalen Suggs is in the driver's seat to start at point guard for the Orlando Magic.
Suggs ran with that role during summer league. Head coach Jamahl Mosley has likely already picked up on the rookie's leadership, confidence and competitiveness that give him captain vibes.
Considering Fultz's injury history and shooting limitations and questions about Anthony's efficiency, the Magic should give Suggs every opportunity to become the face of their franchise. Aside from his obvious long-term upside fueled by positional athleticism, passing skills, pull-up and floater games and defensive anticipation, his well-roundedness should ease his college-to-pro transition.
Suggs' assist rate and three-point percentage will likely be lower compared to most starters at the position, but he'll still produce plenty as a setup man in transition, downhill attacker, shot-maker and thief.
6. Josh Giddey (Oklahoma City Thunder, PG/SG)
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Prediction: Starter
Role: Combo facilitator
ROY Odds: +1800
Josh Giddey had been gaining steam during the predraft process, and the Oklahoma City Thunder reached in front of everyone to grab him at No. 6. They figure to start him right away during a season where player development and the 2022 draft will take priority over wins.
OKC's interest in Giddey mostly stemmed from his signature passing instincts for a 6'8" ball-handler. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will get the majority of the Thunder's creation opportunities, as Giddey is a low-maintenance player who knows how to wisely pick his spots during offensive sets.
Just as he did in Australia, Giddey will let the scoring opportunities come to him while he unselfishly focuses on facilitating and setting up teammates.
Between his lack of athletic traits and his limited summer-league time—he had to drop out after five minutes because of an injury—Giddey might get off to a slow start. But his ability to deliver passes unchallenged at his height and his translatable basketball IQ should quickly translate to assists.
Given his positional size and interest in fast-breaking, Giddey should also get more rebounds than most guards. Just don't count on a ton of scoring production or a strong three-point percentage.
7. Jonathan Kuminga (Golden State Warriors, SF/PF)
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Prediction: Bench
Role: Bench scorer
ROY Odds: +3400
Even if Klay Thompson doesn't return until January, Golden State Warriors head coach Steve Kerr still figures to start a veteran like Andre Iguodala or Otto Porter Jr. over Jonathan Kuminga.
It's in Kuminga's best interest to come off the bench. He'll have a more familiar role as a scorer for the second unit compared to the spot-up player he'd be alongside Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and James Wiseman (and eventually Thompson).
Though his shooting and decision-making will result in lower percentages, he'll still find ways to score with his 6'7", 225-pound frame and athleticism, ball-handling to get to spots and shot-making from each level.
8. Franz Wagner (Orlando Magic, SF/PF)
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Prediction: Bench
Role: Spot-up player/defensive plus
ROY Odds: +2900
Jonathan Isaac remains without a timetable to return, but Franz Wagner will still sit behind Gary Harris, Chuma Okeke and Terrence Ross on the Orlando Magic depth chart.
But between the injury histories of Isaac and Okeke and Wagner's versatility to play both forward positions he could still see plenty of action as a rookie for the rebuilding Magic.
Wagner won't score a lot without a reliable three-ball or advanced creation skills. The Magic will value his defense first. Offensively, he'll play a complementary spot-up role, picking his spots to shoot, attack closeouts and cut while adding some secondary playmaking when given a chance to put the ball down.
Expect flashes of everything—open shot-making, passing off screens, strong drives, perimeter defense. He just isn't sharp enough in any one area to put up huge numbers as a rookie.
9. Davion Mitchell (Sacramento Kings, PG)
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Prediction: Bench
Role: Two-way spark
ROY Odds: +1600
Davion Mitchell would be capable of starting on some teams. But unless the Sacramento Kings are comfortable with him or Tyrese Haliburton guarding wings, he'll come off the bench.
His explosiveness and defensive energy are suited for a sixth-man spark role. The rookie figures to open the season playing second units, but the Kings must have thought about using three-guard lineups since they took him at No. 9 despite already having a set backcourt.
Mitchell's playmaking potential seems capped next to De'Aaron Fox and Haliburton. But he graded in the 89th percentile as a spot-up player while shooting 43.5 percent off the catch at Baylor, so he shouldn't be too uncomfortable alongside other ball-handlers.
His projected role will keep him from putting up Rookie of the Year-caliber stats, but he should be able to play to his strengths. Mitchell could have an efficient year while playing against backups and getting to pick his spots with the starters.
10. Ziaire Williams (Memphis Grizzlies, SG/SF)
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Prediction: Bench
Role: Shot-maker
ROY Odds: +9500
Dillion Brooks, Desmond Bane and Kyle Anderson will make it tough for Ziaire Williams to play big minutes. The No. 10 pick will come off the bench and serve as a second-unit shot-maker.
Williams lacks burst for blowing by and strength for taking contact, and the inconsistent shooting isn't likely to go away yet. But Williams remains a threat with his jumper from anywhere, both off the catch and dribble.
And there will be games when he catches fire, like he did against the Miami Heat in summer league (4-of-6 3PT, 19 points).
He's not a dangerous enough creator for the Memphis Grizzlies to run offense through yet. Instead, he'll spend his rookie season spotting up, moving the ball and using his height and length to defend wings.
Late Lottery Picks
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11. James Bouknight (Charlotte Hornets, SG)
Prediction: Bench scorer
ROY Odds: +2500
A self-creator loaded with confidence and shot-making skills, Bouknight should work as a second-unit scorer for when LaMelo Ball or Terry Rozier are sitting. The addition of Kelly Oubre Jr. will cut into the rookie's opportunities, but Bouknight should play a similar role as Devonte' Graham did.
The Hornets' offseason addition of Ish Smith suggests they aren't counting on Bouknight for playmaking.
12. Joshua Primo (San Antonio Spurs, SG)
Prediction: G League
ROY Odds: +6000
The NBA's youngest player, Primo would spend time next year in the G League even if he hadn't been drafted by the Spurs. But San Antonio is already loaded with guards, including young ones on the verge of breaking out.
Primo could have a bright future based on his positional size, shooting and the creation potential he flashed during summer league. But he won't play many NBA minutes as a rookie.
13. Chris Duarte (Indiana Pacers, SG)
Prediction: Starting scoring wing
ROY Odds: +4600
Being NBA-ready was a selling point for the 24-year-old Duarte before the draft. Lighting up summer league with self-creation, shot-making and toughness only helped validate that projection.
And since T.J. Warren is still without a timetable to return, the Pacers' lottery pick could be in line to start opening night.
Caris LeVert was just diagnosed with a stress fracture in his back as well, and his durability has been an issue dating back to college. If Duarte has looked as good in training camp as he did in college and Las Vegas, he should be able to beat out Jeremy Lamb and Justin Holiday if Warren and LeVert miss time.
14. Moses Moody (Golden State Warriors, SG)
Prediction: Three-and-D reserve
ROY Odds: +5000
Though Klay Thompson isn't expected back until after Christmas, Jordan Poole seems likely to get the starting nod over Moody. However, the Warriors' second lottery pick should still play a regular role in the rotation.
Shooting and off-ball scoring will help Moody fit right into Golden State's offense. He's a low-maintenance scorer who doesn't need many dribbles to generate offense.
Moody won't be used to create, but he'll still produce this season as a spot-up player with wing and corner threes plus complementary scoring off transition, screens and putbacks.
Nos. 15-20
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15. Corey Kispert (Washington Wizards, SF)
Prediction: Bench shooter
ROY Odds: +6000
Kispert should be used as a spot starter at different points of the season, but Deni Avdija should have the edge on opening night if he's fully recovered from the ankle injury that ended his rookie season early. The Wizards' addition of Kyle Kuzma could also keep Kispert in a reserve role.
Head coach Wes Unseld Jr. should still use the rookie and value his shooting, scoring instincts in transition and sound decision-making.
16. Alperen Sengun (Houston Rockets, C)
Prediction: Starting scoring big
ROY Odds: +1400
Daniel Theis should get the nod at center on opening night for the Rockets. But once they fall out of the playoff picture and coaches see how effective Sengun can be, he'll join the starting lineup.
Last year's Turkish BSL MVP should be ready to produce with his strong frame, scoring and rebounding instincts and rapidly improving skills for face-up offense and shooting.
17. Trey Murphy III (New Orleans Pelicans, SF)
Prediction: Starting shooting specialist
ROY Odds: +10000
Murphy has a good chance to shoot his way into the Pelicans' starting lineup. Spacing the floor for Zion Williamson will be a priority, and Murphy shot 43.3 percent from three this past season at Virginia and 44.0 percent in summer league.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker offers more creation, but head coach Willie Green may find him more useful off the bench. Murphy, an excellent spot-up player and shot-maker, will be more valuable alongside the starters.
18. Tre Mann (Oklahoma City Thunder, PG/SG)
Prediction: Bench combo
ROY Odds: +5000
Josh Giddey and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will start, but Mann should have an opportunity to win the sixth-man role in Oklahoma City. He'll give the rotation another creator and scorer with pull-up and floater games that should translate.
19. Kai Jones (Charlotte Hornets, PF)
Prediction: G League
ROY Odds: +10000
Jones could wind up in the G League, given the Hornets' overflow of forwards and playoff aspirations. He's also raw.
Unless the Hornets see him as a 5 or believe his wild athletic ability is more valuable than Vernon Carey Jr.'s post game, they'll likely want Jones to improve his shooting, feel and confidence with the Greensboro Swarm.
20. Jalen Johnson (Atlanta Hawks, PF)
Prediction: Bench energizer
ROY Odds: +3400
Johnson flashed steal-of-the-draft potential in summer league, but it will likely take an injury to one of Atlanta's forwards for him to see regular minutes this season.
He should get a chance at different points with his ability to give the frontcourt a different look. The NBA's space and pace can bring out Johnson's open-floor athleticism and face-up ball-handling.
Nos. 21-30
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21. Keon Johnson (Los Angeles Clippers, SG/SF)
Prediction: G League
ROY Odds: +8000
Explosiveness sets Johnson apart, but his ball-handling and shooting are too far behind for the Clippers to regularly use him on the wing. He'll play most of his minutes in the G League trying to sharpen his scoring skills.
22. Isaiah Jackson (Indiana Pacers, PF/C)
Prediction: Bench energizer/defensive specialist
ROY Odds: +10000
Jackson's playing time won't be consistent behind Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis. He does have a chance to leapfrog Goga Bitadze or steal minutes from Torrey Craig, though.
Jackson's offensive game is limited, but with standout athleticism and quickness for a big, he'll be able to make plays just by cutting, crashing the glass and blocking shots.
23. Usman Garuba (Houston Rockets, PF/C)
Prediction: Bench energizer/defensive specialist
ROY Odds: +10000
The appeal to Garuba stems from his defensive tools and switchability. He won't offer much offensively outside of smart passes and easy finishes, but he comes with Euroleague experience, a motor and IQ that should serve him well as a rookie.
24. Josh Christopher (Houston Rockets, SG)
Prediction: Bench scorer
ROY Odds: N/A
Christopher's minutes could be limited at first. They'll increase once the losses start to pile up or if Houston can trade Eric Gordon.
Christopher has a classic sixth man's game with his one-on-one skills, steak-scoring ability and mix of athleticism and energy.
25. Quentin Grimes (New York Knicks, SG)
Prediction: Bench shooter
ROY Odds: +6000
The Knicks likely drafted Grimes thinking he could contribute right away. After making 100 threes as a junior at Houston, he drilled 22 in six summer-league games.
Grimes won't offer much creation or scoring inside the arc, but his shooting, defensive IQ and overall savvy should lead to rookie minutes.
26. Nah'Shon Hyland (Denver Nuggets, SG)
Prediction: Bench scorer
ROY Odds: +7000
Jamal Murray's absence could allow Hyland to earn time, especially when Austin Rivers inevitably hits his wall. The rookie averaged 19.8 points in summer league, having the same success creating for himself and shot-making as he did at VCU.
Convincing coaches he could play-make for others will increase his chances of receiving backup point guard minutes, though one-on-one offense and shooting will make him money.
27. Cameron Thomas (Brooklyn Nets, SG)
Prediction: Bench scorer
ROY Odds: +6000
Landing in Brooklyn with stars to learn from may benefit Thomas long term. But he isn't getting many minutes in the Nets' loaded rotation.
Whenever he gets a chance, which could happen due to injuries or load management, he'll offer instant offense with his self-creation and confident shot-making.
28. Jaden Springer (Philadelphia 76ers, PG/SG)
Prediction: Bench combo
ROY Odds: +10000
Springer's only chance to receive regular minutes will come if the 76ers trade Ben Simmons and don't receive another ball-handler in return. Either way, he'll spend a good chunk of the year on the bench.
A versatile combo and tough defender, Springer just turned 19 last month and needs time to improve his playmaking and off-the-dribble scoring.
29. Day'Ron Sharpe (Brooklyn Nets, C)
Prediction: G League
ROY Odds: N/A
There isn't room in Brooklyn's rotation for bigs or rookies in general. Sharpe's passing and offensive rebounding should eventually become useful to the Nets, but it won't be this season.
30. Santi Aldama (Memphis Grizzlies, PF)
Prediction: G League
ROY Odds: N/A
Memphis' Aldama pick was a long-term play on a big with a modernized skill set that includes shooting and ball-handling. He won't play for the Grizzlies this season, however.
His only opponents last year were Lafayette, American, Navy, Lehigh, Army and Colgate, and he was brutal in summer league (18.6 percent FG).
Stats courtesy of Synergy Sports. ROY Odds courtesy of FanDuel.
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