Lack of Elite Quarterbacks in 2022 NFL Draft Should Scare QB-Needy Teams
On the eve of the 2021 NFL regular season, the B/R NFL Scouting Department dropped a shiny new 2022 mock draft Wednesday.
And despite the fact that 11 quarterbacks have been selected with top-seven picks in the last four drafts, our freshest mock has just one signal-caller—Oklahoma's Spencer Rattler—coming off the board as a single-digit selection and just three—Rattler, North Carolina's Sam Howell and Liberty's Malik Willis—listed as first-round picks.
In other words, we may finally be due for at least a mild drought when it comes to the entry-level quarterback supply. That's always arguably been an inevitability because the recent pace has often felt unsustainable when compared to the past, but that'll be no consolation to teams looking for new starting quarterbacks next offseason.
It's possible other quarterbacks will emerge this season as blue-chip options in the college game, but it's also possible that even Rattler, Howell and/or Willis will fall out of favor. Rattler threw a pair of interceptions as the No. 2-ranked Sooners barely beat Tulane this past weekend, while Howell tossed three picks and took six sacks as the 10th-ranked Tar Heels were upset by Virginia Tech. Willis looked strong in a victory over Campbell, but he has a lot more to prove because he's facing teams named Campbell.
All three quarterbacks deserve to take heat for their decision-making. Willis needs to prove he has the accuracy to make every throw and can avoid sacks more frequently than he has, Rattler has to avoid plays like these and needs more pocket/read discipline, and Howell faces similar issues while severely lacking consistency.
Height has become less of a point of emphasis in recent years, but it's also worth noting that all three of those guys are shorter than 6'2".
So don't be surprised if we enter the 2022 draft with some teams under the impression that there are no clear-cut future franchise quarterbacks in that class, or that there aren't very many.
That could be problematic for a lot of teams. In fact, a dozen come to mind.
Washington Football Team: They missed on the big five quarterbacks in this year's draft and are using the 38-year-old Ryan Fitzpatrick in what should be a competitive season. But we know Fitz isn't the long-term answer and this squad is too talented to remain in quarterback limbo for years to come.
Denver Broncos: They passed on both Justin Fields and Mac Jones in April, possibly because they believed they could land Aaron Rodgers in a trade with the Green Bay Packers. Of course, they'd also invested in vet Teddy Bridgewater to push 2019 second-rounder Drew Lock. It's likely to be confirmed this year (if it already hasn't) that Bridgewater can't carry an NFL offense and Lock can't be relied upon as a starter.
Houston Texans: Deshaun Watson faces 22 lawsuits and 10 criminal complaints from women accusing him of sexual assault or sexual misconduct committed (allegations he denies). There's a decent chance he never plays for the Texans again, and 32-year-old journeyman Tyrod Taylor isn't likely the long-term solution.
Philadelphia Eagles: This season should serve as an audition for 2020 second-rounder Jalen Hurts. If he doesn't deliver, general manager Howie Roseman will probably feel the need to upgrade at quarterback as soon as possible.
Carolina Panthers: It's also unlikely that the Panthers give Sam Darnold more than one season to prove himself.
Pittsburgh Steelers: They haven't ruled out a Ben Roethlisberger return for 2022, but he'll be 40 next offseason. Another mediocre season could force Pittsburgh to move on, even if Big Ben decides not to retire.
New Orleans Saints: There's no way the Saints give a two-year leash to either Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill. They were spoiled by Drew Brees, and the rest of the roster is too good for them to waste multiple seasons on a quarterback like that.
New York Giants: There's also a decent chance the Giants give up on third-year quarterback Daniel Jones if he doesn't improve this season. There's too much pressure to get it right in New York, and Jones hasn't been close as a 2019 first-round pick.
Miami Dolphins: First-round pick Tua Tagovailoa did not impress as a rookie in 2020, and there's already talk that Dolphins owner Stephen Ross wants Watson. It's entirely possible they give up on Tua after just two seasons.
Detroit Lions: It would hardly save them a dime to release Jared Goff prior to June 1 next offseason, but the Lions could decide this year he isn't their guy and attempt to find an heir apparent immediately.
Indianapolis Colts: Carson Wentz might have a couple of seasons to right the ship in Indy, but he was one of the worst quarterbacks in football last season. If this year is just as disastrous, it's hard to see the Colts standing by him.
Atlanta Falcons: They moved on from Julio Jones this offseason. If they miss the playoffs again in 2021, it's easy to imagine them finally doing the same with Matt Ryan. The 36-year-old hasn't been at his best since 2016, and it's also possible he'll walk away on his own.
You can see how the supply-and-demand dynamics could become ugly if you're one of the teams above and you're lacking draft and/or financial and/or trade capital in 2022. And even if you do have money to spend or capital to trade, there's no guarantee anyone attractive will be made available.
Beyond the passers in what looks like a weak quarterback class, we could be looking at Rodgers, Watson, Ryan and possibly some quarterbacks cast aside by other teams (Fitzpatrick, Bridgewater, Lock, Taylor, Hurts, Darnold, Roethlisberger, Winston, Hill, Jones, Tagovailoa, Wentz, Jimmy Garoppolo?).
That is...not inspiring.
For the quarterback carousel to spin effectively, it requires a certain number of seats and riders. In 2022, we may be lacking one with yet another excess of the other.
Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012. Follow him on Twitter: @Brad_Gagnon.
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