YRFI or NRFI? Or Both? 2 Hammer Locks Jump off the Page for MLB's Tuesday Card

Every Tuesday during the MLB season is NRFI night in America.

What's an NRFI? It's a baseball betting proposition that stands for "no-run first inning," in which you bet there will be zero runs scored in the first frame. (Unless you're betting a YRFI: yes-run first inning.)

2021 NRFI record: 126-86 (59.4 percent)
2021 YRFI record: 55-55 (50 percent)
As posted on Twitter, @TroyHermo

         

The Hermo Hammers of the Week

2-Unit NRFI Play: Toronto Blue Jays (Steven Matz) at New York Yankees (Gerrit Cole) [-110]

The Scoop

Gerrit Cole is really coming into form and looking like a finalist for the AL Cy Young award. His NRFI numbers are equally impressive: 18-8 NRFI record including 3-0 his last three starts. He is especially dialed in early at home with a 1.50 first-inning ERA in 12 starts at Yankee Stadium. 

Jose Juarez/Associated Press

Key at-bats in the Blue Jays lineup that Cole has great stats against: Likely No. 2 batter Marcus Semien is 3-for-25 (.120) off Cole, and likely No. 4 batter Bo Bichette is 2-for-16 (.125). The only real problem is Vlad Guerrero Jr., but with how dominant Cole has been lately, I'll take my chances with Cole retiring the likely AL MVP runner-up in the first. Remember, Cole has only given up two earned runs in his last four starts spanning 24.2 innings.

For the Jays, Steven Matz should definitely be in the discussion when talking about who is Mr. NRFI at the end of the season. He is 20-4 on the year NRFI with a lights-out 1.96 first-inning ERA. Matz has not only accomplished this in the dangerous AL East but in two different home ballparks, including a AAA stadium with small dimensions. In both parks, he is unstoppable early with only a 0.90 first-inning ERA in 11 starts.

Matz in one start against the Yankees this year at Yankee Stadium: NRFI cashed, and Matz only gave up one earned run. Yankees No. 2 hitter Joey Gallo is hitting an abysmal 2-for-20 stretch in his last seven games, making it almost impossible to get traction even if DJ LeMahieu gets on. 

Weather: 7 MPH Winds out to Left.  76 Degrees. Clear Skies. NRFI Weather.

2-Unit YRFI Play: New York Mets (Carlos Carrasco) at Miami Marlins (Edward Cabrera) [+105]

Carlos "Cookie" Carrasco has been baking YRFI cookies since his Mets debut. He has a 6-1 YRFI record with a league-leading 15.43 first-inning ERA while averaging five batters faced in those innings. He has really struggled early, and just in his last start, he gave up two runs in the first to the Marlins.

Adam Hunger/Associated Press

The heavy hitters in the Marlins lineup are Miguel Rojas (2-for-4 with a homer vs. Carrasco) and Jesus Aguilar (3-for-9 vs. Carrasco). Not to mention Jazz Chisholm is hitting .300 in the first inning this year. Carrasco will have his hands full early, and the Marlins will cash this one for us in the bottom. 

Edward Cabrera is an MLB the Show 21 Diamond Dynasty Legend. In real life, he sports a 2-0 NRFI record but has shown rookie struggles. Mets bats have been hot of late and are scoring early in ballgames. My sense is always lean YRFI with rookie pitchers, and this matchup is no different. Mets leadoff man Jonathan Villar is 11-for-26 (.423) with two homers in his last seven games, making him a YRFI weapon. 

Hits, runs, errors—we don't care how the runs get scored in the first. Just make it happen, Mets and Marlins.

   
Hermos Corner

Rome wasn't built in a day, and it's the same with your bankroll. Small steps can make a big difference to profiting long-term. 

I've stressed in the past the importance of unit sizes. It's vital to understand your unit size and sticking to it. If you are new to the column, I calculate bankroll based on monthly income.

First, we have to find out what our max bet should be—say a normal, average American with a $4000 monthly salary. Multiply that by how much risk you want to take: 3 percent (conservative), 5-7 percent (aggressive), or 10 percent (degenerate). So, $4000 x 0.03 =$120, So $120 is the MAX that player should ever bet on a game. The average max play is five units for the average gambler. So, I divide the max bet $120/5 = $24. So this bettors unit size should be $24. 

Sticking with this system will keep your bad days manageable and your good days still worth it. The goal is always to survive since this hobby can be brutal. I've had three red days in a row for -6.85 units. But if my units are $10 I've lost $68.50—not going to break the bank. Tough, but it's not the end of the world. 

Stop live bet chasing. The roulette double-down strategy can only take you so far. You will lose, and you will be crying, and there is no crying in baseball. It's not a long-term strategy. 

Limit max bets to 4-5 times a year. Those are five-unit bombs. Lots of risk, and, remember, we are always limiting risk.

Stick to 1-2 unit plays. Mainly one unit. If it's not worth a unit, then it probably shouldn't grace your card. Keep two-unit selections to plays of the day/week etc. Make them worth it. Should have at least five stats to back it. Don't have five stats? Stay away. Remember, "when in doubt, leave it out." 

Keep parlays to a minimum or within the parlay budget. Out of your gambling budget, allocate a certain amount of money just for parlays. Keep them 0.25U or below. Remember, there's a reason the books offer them. They are statistically a bad play in the long run. Nobody is perfect, and they bank on that. So don't pull a Howard from Uncut Gems and think you have the lock of the century on the first pitch. You don't. Bet small, bet smart, have fun. 

This is the most important rule: If at any time this becomes not fun, you need to stop and re-evaluate your unit sizes. In life, it's not the losses that count but what you do with those losses that make us who we are. I believe in all of you. I know you can make smart decisions and profit long-term from the sports we love. I know it's not going to happen overnight—habits are tough to break. Baby steps nation.

Take it one day at a time, and maybe it's just going, "I'm going to bet only three games today," instead of the 10-hammer bombs you normally fire off daily. Or, "You know what, I don't need live action on the Reds game today. I'm going to enjoy my son's football practice."

Whatever it is, think about the long-term effects your out-of-control gambling habits have on not only yourself but everyone around you. Never lose sight of what's important, and let's have a whole lot of fun.

As many of you know, I'm fighting stage 4 adrenal cancer, and every day is a new battle. You have to remain positive and stick with the plan. That has helped me survived and thrived in the last three years with aggressive cancer. One day at a time. One card at a time. Loving every minute of it.  

Love every single one of you. Every day is a blessing, and every card I get to attack with you is an honor and privilege. 

Let's have a Tuesday NRFI nation.

Follow along with me on Twitter @TroyHermo for my NRFI/YRFI inspired stat sheet "The Hermo Map." 

Till next week, research pays, and the stats don't lie. Let's cash some tickets.