10 Realistic Upsets That Would Send the 2021 College Football Season into Chaos
The 2021 college football season ain't shying away from drama; Week 1 showed us all we need to see about that.
While there were some dominating performances (like Georgia's defense, Ohio State's fourth quarter and pretty much every facet of Alabama) more parity than expected reared its head.
It doesn't look like Ohio State, Clemson, Oklahoma, Oregon or Iowa State are going to be trouncing everybody they play. We also saw stunning upsets of Washington and North Carolina, among others.
With a lot of marquee showdowns and a bevy of improved teams, there are plenty of pitfalls remaining on everybody's schedule. Peering down the road a bit, there's no shortage of games that should be circled on your calendars if you're looking for upsets.
Some of those could send the rankings into disarray and turn the sport upside down. Let's take a look at some upcoming games that could alter the shape of things in college football.
Oregon at Ohio State (Saturday)
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Much of the focus of the sport has shifted East over the past several years, and nobody in the Pac-12 would argue with you about that, even if they agreed through gritted teeth.
The conference wants to change that perception, and while they've got a long way to go to do it, rough-and-tumble wins like UCLA's last week against a big-name program like LSU is a great start.
Fair or not, though, the Bruins' win has everybody wondering how bad the Bayou Bengals are rather than how much Chip Kelly's team has improved. That perception and narrative would shift this week if the 12th-ranked Oregon Ducks can travel across the country Saturday and upset No. 3 Ohio State in the Horseshoe.
The Buckeyes have tons of talented playmakers all over the field, but freshman quarterback C.J. Stroud and a defense that gave up a lot of points a week ago to Minnesota make them as vulnerable as they can get for a top-five team.
Coach Ryan Day's team will only grow and improve as the year progresses, but Oregon gets the Buckeyes at the perfect time. They're going to have to clean up their own mistakes from a close win over Fresno State, and new quarterback Anthony Brown has to have a more commanding presence.
But beating Ohio State will shift college football's focus more westward than it's been in some time.
Ole Miss over Alabama (October 2)
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Ole Miss was nowhere near ready to beat the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide a season ago in Oxford, but that didn't stop them from nearly shocking everybody in a game that was tightly contested into the fourth quarter before Alabama came away with a 63-48 win.
It was closer than the final score indicates, too.
The Rebels piled up 31 first downs and 647 total yards, and UA's defense couldn't stop Matt Corral and crew. Unfortunately for Lane Kiffin's bunch, his defense couldn't ebb the Tide, either. Can they this year in Tuscaloosa?
Again, Alabama looked fairly invincible in the season opener against Miami, but the Hurricanes may be a bit overrated, too. There's little question Kiffin's offense could be just as explosive as it was a season ago, and the Rebels expect to post points. Bama's defense is better, but will it be able to slow Ole Miss down?
There are a lot of interesting and exciting subplots here, like former UA offensive coordinator Kiffin's return to Bryant-Denny Stadium. You can bet there will be a lot of hoopla surrounding the game, and Ole Miss is still likely to be double-digit underdogs in early October.
If they can pull off the unthinkable and close the deal they couldn't a season ago, it opens up the rugged SEC West for the taking.
Kansas State over Oklahoma (October 2)
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Oklahoma looked flat-out gross in the second half of a 40-35 season-opening win over Tulane that could have just as easily gone haywire after the Green Wave recovered an onside kick and could have taken the lead late in the game.
Thankfully for the Sooners, they found a way to pull off the "whew" win, but they still have plenty of problems they need to shore up before the Big 12 schedule. Potholes loom all over that schedule.
One you may not expect is Oklahoma's trip to the "Little Apple" to play Kansas State on October 2. "Oh, there are a lot of games to worry about, but that's not one of them," you say. Tell that to the Sooners.
They've fallen to coach Chris Klieman the past two seasons in shockingly similar fashion, dropping a 48-41 contest the last time they traveled to Manhattan, Kansas, two years ago, before stumbling again in yet another 38-35 head-scratcher.
Neither time did OU have an answer for Wildcats quarterback Skylar Thompson, and he's back for his final season after suffering a season-ending injury not long after torching the Sooners last year. When he's behind center, this is a different team.
There could be a power shift in the Big 12 this year with teams like Texas and Iowa State at the cusp of a breakthrough. A third consecutive K-State win over Oklahoma opens that door in a hurry, and it could knock the Sooners out of the early national title picture, too.
Cincinnati over Notre Dame (October 2)
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Man, that October 2 slate is rife with games you need to see, as it could wind up being dubbed "Shocker Saturday" in college football.
The biggest magic moment could be delivered by Group of Five powerhouse Cincinnati that day in a game that may not even be considered a major upset by then.
That's when the eighth-ranked Bearcats travel to South Bend to take on the No. 8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Yes, that would be a huge showdown even on the surface by looking at rankings only, but it could mean so much more, not only for Cincinnati but also for the "little guy" everywhere.
By then, if coach Luke Fickell's team already has taken care of business against Big Ten foe Indiana and then somehow topples an Irish team that made the College Football Playoff a season ago, their resume will be strong.
Run the table the rest of the way, and it's a travesty if the Bearcats and Heisman Trophy candidate quarterback Desmond Ridder aren't in the playoff.
That would prove to everybody that Group of Five teams can get the big reward if they schedule the right teams. Just a few years ago, UCF ran the table and got no love from the playoff committee before beating Auburn in the Peach Bowl.
Fickell's bunch ran the table last year, got no love and lost 24-21 to Georgia in the Peach Bowl. But going undefeated this season with Notre Dame and Indiana on the schedule should more than warrant consideration. This would be an upset that would send seismic shockwaves to the Power 5 hierarchy.
Texas A&M over Alabama (October 9)
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Why does Alabama get special treatment?
No, this is not a question to ask SEC referees (not this time, anyway). Instead, B/R is including the Crimson Tide twice on this list for obvious reasons. As Ric Flair would say, "To be the man, you've got to beat the man," and right now, Nick Saban and the Tide are "the man" in college football.
Alabama is the defending, undefeated national champion, and if one week is any indication, they are rightfully still ranked first, as they looked like the best team despite losing 10 players to the NFL (including eight of the first 38 players chosen).
So, anybody beating them would send college football into a tailspin, even if doing it wouldn't necessarily knock the Tide out of the title race.
The biggest competition on UA's schedule arguably comes on October 9 as fifth-ranked Texas A&M travels to Tuscaloosa for one of the biggest games of the year in the SEC. The Tide must go to the Swamp before that, and Ole Miss, Auburn and maybe even LSU can provide tests, too.
But the Aggies have been building toward this season for a while, and though coach Jimbo Fisher is replacing star quarterback Kellen Mond, he still has plenty of capable playmakers. If Texas A&M can win this massive showdown, it can become the division favorite.
For the record, Saban isn't worried. When told this summer that Fisher (a close friend and former assistant) said he was going to "beat his a--," Saban had the perfect response: "In golf?"
Prediction for A&M? Pain. But, boy, it's going to be fun if the Aggies can hang.
Kentucky over Georgia (October 16)
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Sticking in the SEC is the way to go here, because at this point of the year, we're smack-dab in the middle of the grueling gauntlet of the nation's top conference.
While it wouldn't be a massive upset if Florida beat Georgia again this year (it happened in 2020), a potential shocker to watch could come on the third weekend of October when the Kentucky Wildcats travel to Athens.
Coach Mark Stoops' team is a trendy pick to ultimately finish second in the SEC East this year. The Cats return a lot of superb talent along both the offensive and defensive fronts, a crew of running backs who can make people miss led by Chris Rodriguez and Kavosiey Smoke and more.
Add Penn State dual-threat transfer quarterback Will Levis, and there is something interesting brewing in the Bluegrass State.
Is it enough to knock off Kirby Smart's big, bad second-ranked Dawgs and a defense that looked like it could gobble up the Tampa Bay Bucs in a season-opening shutdown of Clemson? It's worth watching, for sure.
The battle of sleepers in that division will crystalize things this weekend when UK and Missouri play, but if the Wildcats win that game, they could start getting excited. One thing to note, though: This trip to Athens comes at the end of a difficult stretch that includes home games against Florida and LSU the two weeks prior.
That's a lot of storms to weather, but Stoops' bunch has some talent. This could be an upset worth watching.
Florida State over Clemson (October 30)
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It's hard to draw season-long conclusions off a quarter of play and a handful of drives, but that's why we're here, right?
The McKenzie Milton-led comeback that ultimately fell short against Notre Dame on Sunday night was impressive. The former Heisman Trophy candidate and UCF transfer certainly elevated Florida State's level of play.
With Milton under center, the 'Noles could be an ACC contender. Heck, they've got enough talent at running back and speed on the defensive side of the ball that they can get there with both Milton and starter Jordan Travis playing a role at signal-caller.
There are a lot of positive things that need to happen for FSU between now and a trip to Clemson on October 30 for the Seminoles even to be in the conversation, but the ACC is so devoid of powerhouse teams, they may be ready to challenge the Tigers for the title this year.
Clemson truly needs some elite teams to emerge from the handful of middling squads like FSU, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh and North Carolina State for it to be considered a threat for the College Football Playoff again after dropping its season opener to Georgia.
Coach Dabo Swinney's team needs Florida State to run the table entering this game and get a big win in a game with plenty of national attention surrounding it. If Florida State coach Mike Norvell can somehow win this one, he can go a long way in convincing recruits the 'Noles are back.
This one has a lot of potential.
Penn State over Ohio State (October 30)
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Much like Alabama, the Ohio State Buckeyes find themselves on this list a couple of times, but, unlike the Crimson Tide, this one's for another reason altogether.
As mentioned, the Oregon tilt next week could help the Pac-12 sort of reassert itself as a conference to be reckoned with this season, but even a monumental loss to the Ducks would do nothing to change the Buckeyes' dominance of the Big Ten.
It's time Penn State or Michigan did something to elevate the level of play in the East division.
While there was plenty of promise shown from both the Wolverines and the Nittany Lions in season-opening wins, the real excitement came from Camp Randall, where coach James Franklin's team went into a hostile environment and beat then-No. 12 Wisconsin at its own game.
Yes, the Badgers gave them a couple of major breaks in the win, but PSU's defense looked exceptional. Though quarterback Sean Clifford had more downs than ups, he flashed on a couple of throws to playmaking receiver Jahan Dotson and KeAndre Lambert-Smith. Running back Noah Cain did some nice things, too.
If that team continues to jell and improve, it could set up a gargantuan game at Ohio Stadium on October 30.
There's no question at this point that the Buckeyes would be heavy favorites, but there is a lot of football to be played between now and then, and a back-loaded Big Ten schedule for the Buckeyes is going to provide a lot of fun games to watch and a lot of potential upset opportunities.
None is more feasible than Penn State.
Texas over Iowa State (November 6)
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It would have been just as easy and reasonable to put the Red River Showdown between Texas and Oklahoma on this list, and it's probably the first one we all should circle.
But you've got to include No. 9 Iowa State on this list, too, right?
The Cyclones are getting a ton of early-season love as a program that could shake things up, not only in the Big 12 but also in the College Football Playoff. With veterans like quarterback Brock Purdy and running back Breece Hall, coach Matt Campbell's team has a lot of weapons.
They still should be getting some looks, even after a hard-fought 16-10 clunker of a win against FCS powerhouse Northern Iowa in the season opener. Yes, that win is gross, but it is no indication of what the Cyclones are capable of.
If they can get past rival Iowa this weekend in what should be a terrific game, the Cyclones should be undefeated when they host the Longhorns.
Who knows what to expect from coach Steve Sarkisian's upstart team between now and then? They opened the season with a convincing win over ranked Louisiana-Lafayette and looked good doing it. Yes, that's the same Ragin' Cajuns team that upset Campbell's Iowa State squad in the opener a season ago.
The moving parts in the Big 12 still seem to shake out with the Sooners, Cyclones and Longhorns as the three biggest contenders. If Texas can beat an undefeated Iowa State team, the jigsaw pieces in that conference are going to be strewn all over the place.
UCLA over USC (November 20)
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Let's look all the way to the end of the season.
Envision for a moment the USC Trojans have done what many expect they will and get better throughout the season, emerging over the Arizona State Sun Devils as the best team in the Pac-12 South. While big, bad Oregon awaits on the other side of the conference, the Trojans still have one huge hurdle to overcome.
That, of course, is the UCLA Bruins.
The Ducks, Bruins and Trojans all have plenty of tough games on the schedule until we reach this point of the season, but arguably none of them will play as difficult a slate as Chip Kelly's team. After upsetting LSU a week ago, the Bruins will play a Fresno State team this week that took Oregon to the brink.
In back-to-back weeks (Oct. 16 and 23) they'll draw Washington and Oregon from the North in a tough stretch. Then comes the big one on November 20. That, of course, is when the battle of the two Rose Bowl occupants will take place.
For UCLA, it isn't its final Pac-12 test, which will come the next week against California. But it is probably the biggest. The Trojans have a much easier road to the conference title game because it doesn't play the Ducks or the Huskies in the regular season, but is anybody really doubting the Bruins at this point?
They look good so far and may even be emerging as the biggest threat to the Trojans in the South. If the momentum is still riding high at the end of the season, UCLA could be a fun team to watch. This has the trappings to be an exciting showdown.
All stats courtesy of CFBStats and Sports Reference. Recruiting rankings via 247Sports' composite rankings unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brad Shepard on Twitter, @Brad_Shepard.
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