Every Tuesday during the MLB season is NRFI night in America.
What's an NRFI? It's a baseball betting proposition that stands for "no-run first inning," in which you bet there will be zero runs scored in the first frame. (Unless you're betting a YRFI: yes-run first inning.)
2021 NRFI record: 125-80 (61.0 percent)
2021 YRFI record: 54-52 (50.9 percent)
As posted on Twitter, @TroyHermo
The NRFI has returned. It's back.
The NRFI last week got hot and I, aka "Hermo Maps," took full advantage. Now I'm back above 60 percent, which is where you want to stand at the end of the year. I went 6-0 in NRFIs last week and 5-2 with YRFIs, so overall 11-2 in first-inning props. When the cool air mixes in with pitchers trying to get their clubs into the playoffs and hitters feeling the effects of a grueling 162-game season, the NRFIs start to come back.
In honor of the return of America's favorite bet, I went on the hunt for a huge Hermo Hammer© NRFI we can all feel confident in playing. A hammer so large, not even Thor himself would be worthy of carrying.
Are you ready for this one, NRFI nation?
For too long we've had to ride the YRFI trend and be disappointed by hot hitters not being ready to play.
The best part?
The books still haven't woken up to the shift in the force. YRFIs (at least from last week) were still the perennial favorite. I received most of my NRFI wins at plus money or -115, and I hope for the common bettor it stays that way. These props should never be above -125, and that's a hill I'm willing to die on.
Let's dive into my NRFI of the month and finish August on a great note.
And you all know how it's done by now. Every Tuesday, I'll sift through the first-inning stats and hitter analysis to give the best plays available on the card. You can also follow my daily plays in the B/R Betting community section. Odds for every YRFI and NRFI line can be found on DraftKings.
The Hermo Hammer NRFI of the Month
2-Unit Hermo Hammer: Atlanta Braves (Charlie Morton) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Walker Buehler) [-115]
I don't call him Walker "NRFI" Buehler for nothing!
Buehler, 27, is already an NRFI legend in my book. In 87 career starts, he has a 1.86 first-inning ERA at a time when most pitchers average around 4.00. In those innings, he averages 3.86 batters faced, which is quite impressive.
Buehler this year is no different: 1.73 first-inning ERA in 26 starts and a smoking 3.61 batters faced. His NRFI record this year is 21-5, with most of his losses being solo homers that were fastballs high in the zone. He's had more control of late, and being in the comfortable setting of Dodger Stadium is a boost. Both Ozzie Albies and Freddie Freeman are 1-for-5 against Buehler, and he has a 2.92 career ERA against the Braves in two starts.
Charlie Morton comes into this matchup having the best NRFI season of his career: 20-6 with a 1.75 first-inning ERA at the ripe age of 37. Morton and Rich Hill are like NRFI Benjamin Buttons. What also helps the hammer is that Dodgers' projected leadoff man Trea Turner is 1-for-6 lifetime against Uncle Charlie. No batter in the Dodgers lineup with four or more at-bats has hit over .300 lifetime against Morton.
The weather report calls for light winds and overall perfect conditions that shouldn't affect ball loft. A good thing for keeping the ball in the park.
Here are the career numbers at Dodger Stadium for the Braves' first five projected hitters:
1. Albies 6-for-26 (.231), 1 HR
2. Soler 0-for-12 (.000), 0 HR
3. Freeman 35-for-113 (.310), 6 HR
4. Riley N/A
5. Swanson 6-for-34 (.176), 0 HR
If we get past Freeman, we cash this NRFI. That simple.
Another 'Mean' NRFI Lean for Your Card
Houston Astros (Lance McCullers Jr.) at Seattle Mariners (Yusei Kikuchi) [-120]
Lance "NRFI Pants" McCullers has been an NRFI machine for the Astros this year with a 17-5 NRFI record and 2.86 first-inning ERA. Kikuchi, a much better NRFI pitcher at home, sports a 3.27 first-inning ERA in 11 starts at T-Mobile Park compared to 4.85 on the road.
Stop Chasing and Start Planning
Chasing. It's why 99 percent of us can't make it in this industry.
We lose, we get mad, we double our losses on the next game. Sometimes with little to no research at all. Lose. Get mad and start the process until the bankroll goes cold.
Sound like you? You're not alone.
It's why only 1 percent of people who gamble on sports make a living off it. The 1 percent have the discipline to not chase and drown themselves. They pick their spots and, most importantly, use safe and fair unit sizes.
Above all, though, they plan.
They have a strategy and never divert from the plan. Start treating sports gambling as an investment and less of a gamble and you will have more success. As previously mentioned, write down and track your bets, rank your bets so you know what the best selections are, and always look for the best information.
Say you do five games a day with one hammer. It forces you to select the best games on the card. Maybe your plan is one huge hammer a day on the game you like the most. Whatever it is, stick to it. Find a strategy that works long-term.
Maybe try different strategies out for a month at a time. Whatever it is, stick with it, never get impulsive and, most importantly, believe in the plan. Every pick justified, every dollar invested you feel confident about.
Remember these two phrases: "Don't force or you will remorse" and "If any bet is in doubt, leave it out."
With football coming around the corner, a lot of gamblers chase Sunday losses into Monday Night Football, making it one of the most bet on sporting events of the week. If you don't like the game, though, don't play it. Save what little money you have left and plan out next week.
Remember, 60 percent is considered a good season. You're gonna lose 40 percent of the time.
Don't lose yourself over one week. This hobby is a marathon, not a sprint, and I believe every one of us has it in us to break the 1 percent stigma, that 99 percent of us can't win cuz we're human. With the right guidance and a little luck, we can all make money in this space. Responsibly and the right way. The Hermo way.
Safe units. Researched picks. Investing mindset, not gambling. Having fun making money on the sports we love.
Let's have a great week, NRFI nation.