Regrading the Biggest 2020-21 MLB Offseason Moves
It's going to be a while before anyone can properly judge how Major League Baseball teams did with their hot-stove shopping during the 2020-21 offseason.
But now that the 2021 season is just about halfway finished, we thought we would take a look at how the biggest deals are panning out.
For this, we assigned fresh grades to four free-agent signings and six trades. Our fundamental question was a simple one: Is the team getting what it hoped for when it made the deal?
We'll proceed in chronological order.
Dec. 8, 2020: Chicago White Sox Acquire Lance Lynn
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Chicago White Sox Get: RHP Lance Lynn
Never mind just a dependable innings-eater. By way of a 140 ERA+ over an MLB-high 292.1 innings, Lance Lynn was one of the best pitchers in baseball for the Texas Rangers in 2019 and 2020.
New team, same guy. Among qualified American League hurlers, Lynn trails only Chicago White Sox teammate Carlos Rodon for the lead in ERA. And on the 11 occasions in which he's pitched at least five innings, the White Sox are 7-4.
So even if they had to give up a promising young pitcher to get Lynn, the AL Central leaders have every reason to be happy they did so.
Grade: A
Texas Rangers Get: RHP Dane Dunning, LHP Avery Weems
As they were coming off a last-place season and he was heading into the final year of his contract, there wasn't and still isn't any reason to fault the Texas Rangers for dealing Lynn.
And so far, they can be pleased with Dane Dunning. The 26-year-old has mostly pitched well in four- and five-inning stints. He might be capable of better things in the future if he can find more reliable pitches to complement his solid changeup.
Avery Weems, meanwhile, has struck out 38 of the 90 batters he's faced for High-A Hickory. He's thus one to keep an eye on even if his road to the majors is still long.
Grade: B
Dec. 29, 2020: San Diego Padres Acquire Blake Snell
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San Diego Padres Get: LHP Blake Snell
Snell's 2021 Stats: 15 G, 15 GS, 66.1 IP, 63 H (10 HR), 90 K, 40 BB, 5.29 ERA, 69 ERA+, minus-0.3 rWAR
Even though his AL Cy Young Award season in 2018 looked like an outlier at the time, the San Diego Padres still got a top-of-the-rotation hurler when they acquired Blake Snell.
In theory, anyway. In reality, Snell is having a career-worst season that's specifically being bogged down by too many walks and diminished effectiveness on the part of his fastball. It's being hit at a .289 clip with a .579 slugging percentage.
Of course, Snell's struggles haven't kept the Padres from racking up a 46-32 record. Plus, nobody they sent to the Tampa Bay Rays has broken out. So a total disaster this trade is not.
Grade: D
Tampa Bay Rays Get: C Francisco Mejia, RHP Luis Patino, RHP Cole Wilcox, C Blake Hunt
In Francisco Mejia and Luis Patino, the Rays scored a former and a then-current top-100 prospect for Snell. But neither has made much of an impression in the majors.
Still, don't count out Patino from making an impact this season. He's recently found a groove at Triple-A Durham with one run allowed next to 28 strikeouts and four walks over his last four outings.
With Cole Wilcox (2.14 ERA) and Blake Hunt (.828 OPS) also having solid seasons in the minors, the Rays can feel confident the Snell trade will pay off in the long term. Even as is, it looks like they did well to sell high on the lefty.
Grade: B
Dec. 29, 2020: San Diego Padres Acquire Yu Darvish
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San Diego Padres Get: RHP Yu Darvish, C Victor Caratini
Darvish's 2021 Stats: 15 G, 15 GS, 90.0 IP, 61 H (10 HR), 108 K, 22 BB, 2.50 ERA, 146 ERA+, 2.3 rWAR
Though San Diego's trade for Snell has yet to bear fruit, the club's subsequent deal for Yu Darvish has been, if anything, even better than expected.
Darvish has hardly skipped a beat after finishing second in National League Cy Young Award voting in 2020. With perhaps the game's best slider at his disposal, he has allowed two or fewer earned runs in all but three of his starts. Not so coincidentally, the Padres are 12-3 when he pitches.
Even if he hasn't made quite as big of an impact, Victor Caratini has been instrumental in fixing the deficiency that the Padres had behind the plate in 2020. So all told, they nailed this one.
Grade: A
Chicago Cubs Get: RHP Zach Davies, SS Reginald Preciado, OF Owen Caissie, OF Ismael Mena, SS Yeison Santana
More than anything else, the Chicago Cubs' decision to trade Darvish was financially motivated. By dealing him, they saved $59 million.
However, the deal was only ever going to pay immediate dividends on the field if Zach Davies replicated the 2.73 ERA he had for San Diego in 2020. Even though he spearheaded a combined no-hitter at the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday, he's had a generally up-and-down season.
Of the four prospects Chicago acquired, only Yeison Santana has played in the minors in 2021. All the more reason to see this trade as an L amid a season that's otherwise going well.
Grade: F
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Jan. 7, 2021: New York Mets Acquire Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco
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New York Mets Get: SS Francisco Lindor, RHP Carlos Carrasco
The New York Mets paid a heavy price for Francisco Lindor not once but twice. First by exchanging a four-player package to get him from Cleveland and then by extending him for $341 million over 10 years.
He's not exactly rewarding their faith. Though his defense has been on point and the offensive metrics hint at some bad luck, it's alarming that he hasn't been able to get going at the plate. In context of the modest 101 OPS+ he had last season, it's even more alarming.
Making matters worse for the Mets is that Carlos Carrasco has yet to take the mound because of a torn right hamstring. So even if this book is far from closed, the opening chapter has been rough.
Grade: D
Cleveland Gets: SS Andres Gimenez, SS Amed Rosario, OF Isaiah Greene, RHP Josh Wolf
One silver lining for the Mets, however, is that none of the players they gave up to get Lindor and Carrasco are lighting it up for Cleveland.
After a promising debut in Queens last season, Andres Gimenez was back in the minors by the middle of May. Amed Rosario has fared better, but his modest power and defensive limitations remain issues.
Of the two prospects Cleveland got back, only Josh Wolf has gotten into minor league games, and he has largely flopped in posting a 6.56 ERA for Single-A Lynchburg. So even if the team was right to sell high, Cleveland's end of this deal doesn't look great either.
Grade: D
Jan. 19, 2021: San Diego Padres Acquire Joe Musgrove
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San Diego Padres Get: RHP Joe Musgrove
Musgrove's 2021 Stats: 15 G, 14 GS, 85.0 IP, 52 H (9 HR), 103 K, 19 BB, 2.22 ERA, 165 ERA+, 1.9 rWAR
Though he was hardly a household name when the Padres picked him up, Joe Musgrove was trending up after he had posted a 3.86 ERA and 12.5 strikeouts per nine innings in 2020.
As if on cue, he twirled the first no-hitter in Padres history in just his second start and has remained dominant ever since. His slider has been as good as Darvish's, and his 2.22 ERA ranks sixth among NL qualifiers.
One weird thing is that the Padres have somehow won only eight of Musgrove's starts. But that's still a net positive, and nobody who went out the door has been missed.
Grade: A
Pittsburgh Pirates Get: RHP David Bednar, OF Hudson Head, LHP Omar Cruz, C/OF Endy Rodriguez, RHP Drake Fellows
The one and only major leaguer the Pittsburgh Pirates got back for Musgrove has been...well, fine. Mainly courtesy of his excellent curveball, all but seven of David Bednar's appearances have been scoreless.
Of the prospects Pittsburgh got back, Hudson Head (No. 5), Omar Cruz (22) and Endy Rodriguez (25) rank among the club's top 30 at MLB.com. All three are also having solid seasons in the minors, with Head notably posting a .399 on-base percentage for Single-A Bradenton.
A steal? Not really. But considering that Pittsburgh is rebuilding and Musgrove was only under its control through 2022, this is good enough for now.
Grade: B
New York Mets Get: LHP Joey Lucchesi
The Mets' end of the Musgrove deal involved sending Rodriguez to the Pirates and getting Joey Lucchesi from San Diego. He figured to be a key piece of depth in 2021.
That was initially the case as the lefty worked as both a starter and reliever, and he even went on a nice run with a 1.19 ERA in five starts from May 22 to June 18.
Lucchesi won't be adding to that, however, because he tore the UCL in his left elbow and needs Tommy John surgery. It was a tough break for the Mets, who might otherwise have seen this deal as a steal.
Grade: C
Jan. 23, 2021: Toronto Blue Jays Sign George Springer
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The Deal: 6 years, $150 million
When the Toronto Blue Jays signed George Springer to the largest contract in franchise history, the idea was for him to patrol center field and provide thump in the lineup.
Alas, Springer didn't make his season debut until April 28 after straining his left oblique and then right quadricep during spring training. Four games later—one of which included a two-homer outburst May 1—the latter injury put him back on the injured list. He only just returned again Tuesday.
Since Springer's injuries are neither his nor the team's fault, the fair thing to do would be to give this signing an incomplete grade. Unless, of course, it's also fair to introduce the question of whether the Jays should have anticipated Springer's injury problems.
There's an argument to be made. Because even though Springer came with All-Star credentials after seven seasons with the Houston Astros, he was also a 31-year-old with a not insignificant injury history. There's therefore a possibility that the Jays' worst nightmare with Springer is only beginning.
Grade: D
Jan. 27, 2021: New York Yankees Re-Sign DJ LeMahieu
7 of 10
The Deal: 6 years, $90 million
For the New York Yankees, letting DJ LeMahieu get away in free agency always seemed like something that simply couldn't happen. Not after he had graced them with a .336 average and 36 homers in 2019 and 2020.
Even though he was already 32, the Yankees had good reasons to believe LeMahieu could keep up that production. He hadn't exactly overachieved in '19 and '20, after all, as he had more hard-hit balls across those two seasons than all but Jose Abreu.
Because his hard-hit rate is still well north of 40 percent, this isn't so much where things have gone wrong for LeMahieu. Because he's also still one of the game's best at avoiding strikeouts, it's therefore not surprising that the metrics suggest his poor results are largely due to bad luck.
Even so, LeMahieu's slight uptick in in-zone whiffs and diminishing exit velocity on fly balls and line drives are causes for concern. Those are not only hindering him this year but also almost certain to become even greater problems as he ages.
Grade: C
Jan. 29, 2021: Philadelphia Phillies Re-Sign J.T. Realmuto
8 of 10
The Deal: 5 years, $115.5 million
Similar to the Yankees with LeMahieu, the Philadelphia Phillies simply couldn't let J.T. Realmuto get away after he had been by far the top rWAR producer at catcher from 2019 to 2020.
The concern in re-signing Realmuto, however, was obvious. With his 30th birthday due up March 18, he was about to enter a territory that had real potential to be unkind to his skills on both sides of the ball.
Though that concern will surely be realized eventually, for now Realmuto is about as good as he's ever been. He's continuing to play well-rounded defense behind the plate. And save for a strikeout rate in the 48th percentile, his offensive performance is marked by above-average metrics.
Considering that Realmuto has been especially good with runners on base (1.029 OPS) and men in scoring position (.891 OPS), he has done everything the Phillies could have asked of him. Which is to say, it's not his fault that yet another sub-.500 season is in development in the City of Brotherly Love.
Grade: A
Feb. 1, 2021: St. Louis Cardinals Acquire Nolan Arenado
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St. Louis Cardinals Get: 3B Nolan Arenado
Third base was an issue for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2020, as Matt Carpenter got the bulk of the playing time even as he was en route to a .186 average and .640 OPS.
Enter Nolan Arenado, who has more or less lived up to the Cardinals' lofty expectations. He's once again rating well on defense, and his 135 OPS+ is even better than what he managed during his five-year run of excellence for the Colorado Rockies from 2015 to 2019.
In light of the issues they've had with their rotation depth, there's at least one piece from the trade that the Cardinals are surely missing. But badly enough to want a mulligan? Nah.
Grade: A
Colorado Rockies Get: LHP Austin Gomber, INF Mateo Gil, INF Elehuris Montero, RHP Tony Locey, RHP Jake Sommers
Because the Rockies didn't seem to get any immediately helpful players back for Arenado, the mood in Denver at the time of the trade was a less-than-happy one.
But even if his recent forearm tightness is concerning, Austin Gomber has broken out precisely because he's tamed Coors Field. He has a 1.48 ERA there, not to mention just a .167 average against and one home run allowed.
For their part, Elehuris Montero (No. 9), Tony Locey (18) and Mateo Gil (23) all rank among Colorado's top prospects at MLB.com. One catch is that this is faint praise given that the team's farm system isn't particularly good, with another being that all three are experiencing growing pains.
Grade: B
Feb. 11, 2021: Los Angeles Dodgers Sign Trevor Bauer
10 of 10
The Deal: 3 years, $102 million
Fresh of their long-awaited World Series win, the Dodgers didn't begin the offseason in need of a pitcher of Trevor Bauer's caliber. But then again, it never hurts to get better.
Months after the signing, Bauer is now a key figure in MLB's crackdown on pitchers who use foreign substances. He was the first big-name pitcher to be reported for having game-used balls collected for analysis in April, and he's recently been suffering from a spin-rate drop as the league has gotten serious about enforcement.
Despite all this, it's not a bad thing for a team to have MLB's leading innings-eater in its rotation. And while Bauer has had an obvious problem with home runs, both his .173 opponents' average and his .194 expected average cast him as elite.
Because his spin issues in June are thus far paired with a 3.55 ERA and .237 opponents' average in four starts, the Dodgers admittedly have some cause for concern. But the production he's given them has done more good than harm.
Grade: A
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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