Stock Up, Stock Down for MLB's Best Pitchers Thus Far in 2021
Between all the strikeouts and the historically low batting average, the 2021 Major League Baseball season has been a good one for pitchers. It would therefore follow that the league's big-name hurlers are having a field day.
But are they?
We thought we'd check in on the stock of 10 of the game's most decorated pitchers. These are guys who have staked their claim to acehood over the years by racking up statistics, contending for Cy Young Awards or both.
Please note that this list is not simply a ranking of the top pitchers of 2021. Because while there's plenty of nice things to say about Brandon Woodruff, Kevin Gausman, John Means, Freddy Peralta and so on, it would turn the whole stock measuring thing into a one-sided exercise.
For simplicity's sake, we'll proceed in alphabetical order by last name.
Trevor Bauer, Los Angeles Dodgers
1 of 10
Even more so than his All-Star breakout with Cleveland in 2018, last year was the one that really put Trevor Bauer on the map as one of baseball's top aces.
That's when he dominated to the tune of a 1.73 ERA and a 100-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 73 innings in 11 starts for the Cincinnati Reds. Per his 2.13 expected ERA, he had the best season of any starting pitcher.
Though Bauer hasn't been quite that good in his first season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, it's hard to fault him. Last year wasn't a true "season," after all, and even this lesser version of Bauer is still one of the game's top hurlers.
To wit, he's holding opposing hitters to a sub-.200 average for the second year in a row. And while his four-seam fastball is the best pitch in baseball right now in terms of run value, he also has one of the game's best sliders.
After what's happened with his spin rate in his past two starts, there's obviously an uncomfortable question of whether the elite spin that typically fuels Bauer's brilliance is on the level. But at least until MLB passes judgment on him, we'll hold off on passing our own.
Stock: Up
Shane Bieber, Cleveland
2 of 10
In case anyone needs a good example of the term "meteoric rise," consider Shane Bieber's first three seasons with Cleveland.
He wasn't widely considered to be one of baseball's top prospects when he debut in 2018, yet he had a solid season and followed it up with an All-Star breakout in 2019. Then in 2020, he won the American League Cy Young Award on the strength of a 1.63 ERA and an MLB-high 122 strikeouts.
Bieber's knuckle-curveball was his principal weapon in 2020, and it's still playing a major role for him now in 2021. The difference this year, though, is that he's also mixing in more sliders. He leads all pitchers in swings and misses on breaking pitches, meaning this approach is clearly working.
But whereas the 26-year-old's fastball also got the job done last season, it's getting knocked around so far this year. The average against it is up from .210 to .257, while the slugging percentage against it is likewise up from .310 to .477.
So even though he's once again leading MLB in strikeouts, this is certainly a more hittable version of Bieber than the one we saw in 2020.
Stock: Down
Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
3 of 10
After five up-and-down seasons with the Pittsburgh Pirates between 2013 and 2017, Gerrit Cole has been heading nowhere but up since 2018.
That was the year in which the Houston Astros convinced him to scrap his sinker in deference to his four-seam fastball and also got him to improve his spin rate. What followed over the next two years were 65 starts that yielded a 2.68 ERA and 602 strikeouts in 412.2 innings.
Cole kept it up with a 2.84 ERA and 94 strikeouts in 73 innings for the New York Yankees last year. And even after crossing the age-30 threshold last September, he's having arguably his finest season yet in 2021.
Though Cole's fastball and slider remain his go-to weapons, he's also reintroduced his changeup into his arsenal to great effect. He's also filling up the strike zone to such a degree that he's on track for what would be an all-time great strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Like with Trevor Bauer, however, there's currently an uncomfortable question as to whether Cole derives his spin rate mastery from illegal means. Unlike Bauer, however, there's some reasonable doubt here after his spin improved on June 9 after a notable dip on June 3.
Stock: Up
Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
4 of 10
Even at a time when there's no shortage of great pitchers in Major League Baseball, they all pale in comparison to Jacob deGrom.
The New York Mets ace already had a strong claim as the best of the best even before 2021. All he did between 2018 and 2020 was compile a 2.10 ERA with 628 strikeouts and only 353 hits and 108 walks allowed over 489 innings. All told, he had 4.6 more rWAR than any other hurler.
So good is deGrom in 2021, however, that he's on track not just to beat but to utterly demolish Bob Gibson's modern ERA record of 1.12.
Though there's plenty to appreciate about deGrom's command and his arguably unrivaled ability for disguising (i.e., "tunneling") his pitches, nothing testifies to his brilliance like the radar gun. He's averaging 99.2 mph on his fastball and throwing over 60 percent of all his pitches upwards of 95 mph.
Ah, but is deGrom yet another ace who has an unfair edge? His teammates say no, and the truth may indeed on their side given that the 32-year-old's spin rate doesn't come close to those of Trevor Bauer or Gerrit Cole.
Stock: Up
Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox
5 of 10
Lucas Giolito might have been the worst pitcher in baseball back in 2018, wherein his 32 starts for the Chicago White Sox yielded a 6.13 ERA and minus-1.0 rWAR.
Next thing anyone knew, he was a top-10 finisher for the American League Cy Young Award in both 2019 and 2020 as he racked up a 132 ERA+ and 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings in 41 total starts. His transformation stemmed from a revamped delivery and one of the game's best changeups.
Now in 2021, it's fair to say Giolito's results have been mixed.
To the extent that he's had four starts with at least four earned runs allowed and six with no more than one earned run allowed, the 26-year-old has indeed been good more often than he's been bad. There's also a sizable difference between his actual ERA (3.81) and expected ERA (3.26).
Nevertheless, there's no ignoring that some of Giolito's batted ball metrics (e.g., hard-hit rate) have taken a turn for the worse. And while his fastball and changeup are still quite good, they can only take him so far while his slider is getting crushed for a .596 slugging percentage.
Stock: Down
Zack Greinke, Houston Astros
6 of 10
Consider this your periodic reminder that Zack Greinke is likely going to be a Hall of Famer.
As a Cy Young Award winner and six-time All-Star and Gold Glover, he certainly has accolades worthy of Cooperstown. He also has the numbers, as his 73.6 career rWAR ranks ahead of Hall of Famers like Jim Palmer and John Smoltz and even contemporaries like Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw.
Of course, Greinke isn't quite what he used to be now in his age-37 season. So in lieu of an ace-like campaign, the Houston Astros must be happy that they're at least getting a better season out of the veteran than the one he had in 2020, which he finished with a 4.03 ERA.
Trouble is, Greinke is probably overachieving thus far in 2021.
Even if he isn't hurting himself with free passes, his strikeout rate is at its lowest since his pre-ace days of the mid-2000s. He's also served up more batted balls in the sweet spot (i.e., with a launch angle between eight and 32 degrees) than any other hurler. Hitters' slugging percentage off him should be higher.
Stock: Down
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
7 of 10
At this point, there basically isn't any praise left to heap on Clayton Kershaw.
As of the start of last season, he had already won three Cy Young Awards and an MVP and been an All-Star eight times in 12 seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers. All he was missing was a World Series ring, and he finally checked that box in October.
What's more, 2020 truly felt like vintage season for Kershaw as he put up a 2.16 ERA and the second-highest strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career. It surely helped that he regained some of the zip he had lost on his fastball.
Well, now said fastball isn't even averaging 91 mph in 2021. Opposing batters are hitting a sturdy .298 against it, which is way up from the career-low .203 mark that he posted in that category in 2020.
Worse, the 33-year-old's trademark slider is beset by both an unusually high rate of contact—about 40 percent of which has clocked at 95 mph or higher. If he wants to level out what's been a wildly up-and-down season, getting that pitch back under control must be priority No. 1.
Stock: Down
Lance Lynn, Chicago White Sox
8 of 10
No matter how good you think Lance Lynn was between 2019 and 2020, you're probably still selling him short.
Even if the 3.57 ERA that he had for the Texas Rangers didn't look like much on its own, it translated to a well-above-average 140 ERA+, and he accumulated it over an MLB-high 292.1 innings. Put together, only one pitcher was worth more rWAR over those two seasons.
After you've been that good, it's hard to get better. Yet Lynn has done so in his first year with the White Sox.
Sure, it's suspicious that he's been so successful despite not being an especially prolific strikeout artist or even the least bit of a ground-ball merchant. He's getting by as a fly-ball pitcher, however, because flies off him average just 90.2 mph compared to the league-wide mark of 92.5 mph.
That gets at how difficult it is for hitters to differentiate between his four-seamer, cutter and sinker until it's too late. So even if he doesn't ultimately set a modern American League record for ERA, there's little question that Lynn is at the top of his game right now.
Stock: Up
Hyun Jin Ryu, Toronto Blue Jays
9 of 10
There were 90 pitchers who made at least 50 starts between 2018 and 2020, yet only one of them had a better ERA than Hyun Jin Ryu's 2.30 mark.
The most noticeable element of Ryu's excellence was his command. He walked only 1.5 batters per nine innings between 2018 and 2020, and he did so even though his strike zone rate was in the middle of the pack. Because who needs to fill up the zone when you can expertly get hitters to chase your pitches?
Is Ryu still good in 2021? His numbers say yes, and they're absolutely right.
Yet his second season with the Toronto Blue Jays has also been a step back in some ways. For one thing, his relatively low-velo fastball is getting knocked around for a .603 slugging percentage. For another, his overall hard-hit rate has gone from the 90th percentile in 2020 to the 51st percentile in 2021.
Perhaps both of these things can be true of Ryu's 2021 season: he's both good and overachieving.
Stock: Down
Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals
10 of 10
Though he often had competition for the "Best Pitcher in Baseball" crown, no hurler was as consistently dominant as Max Scherzer between 2013 and 2020. He led all pitchers in rWAR and had 251 more strikeouts than any of his peers.
Yet even as he was an All-Star and Cy Young Award contender for the seventh straight season, Scherzer's durability began to wane as he battled injuries in 2019. He then finished 2020 with his highest ERA (3.74) since his last pre-ace year in 2012.
With his 37th birthday coming on July 27, one would think that Scherzer would be taking yet another step back in 2021. But in spite of a minor injury scare on Friday...nah, not really.
On the contrary, Scherzer is in the middle of perhaps his finest season yet for the Washington Nationals. And while it all largely stems from the reality that his fastball, changeup and slider are still overpowering pitches, he's also added a new wrinkle by working on the edges of the zone more often with his heater.
Basically: Max Scherzer, now with more Greg Maddux.
Stock: Up
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
