Most Intriguing Landing Spots for MLB's Top Trade Targets
The first two months of the 2021 MLB season have come and gone in a snap, and trade season will be upon us before we know it.
Technically, it has already arrived. The Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays combined on the first notable deal when Tampa Bay sent shortstop Willy Adames and relief pitcher Trevor Richards to Milwaukee for relievers J.P. Feyereisen and Drew Rasmussen. Is more action ahead?
Even if most teams elect to wait until July to ramp up trade activity, the anticipation will begin to build. Let's look at intriguing landing spots for notable trade targets in baseball.
Many of the players listed have been mentioned in trade rumors or figure to be discussed ahead of the July 30 deadline because of their contract situations.
All of them are on teams at least five games under the .500 mark. That means Chicago Cubs star Kris Bryant, for example, will not be mentioned, even if he could be dangled come July depending on how the North Siders fare this month.
Got it? Let's not dally about.
SS Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies
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The Colorado Rockies have apparently been hesitant to move star shortstop Trevor Story.
Jayson Stark of The Athletic reported the Rockies were telling interested teams they "weren't ready" to deal Story even before he landed on the injured list (elbow). Would Colorado entertain keeping Story through the deadline?
One American League executive told Stark the price for a rental lessens every year. Maybe the Rockies would rather retain Story and obtain a compensation pick after the season.
That feels unlikely. While he's on an expiring contract, Story is a five-tool shortstop who can alter a pennant race. At least one team should make enough of an offer to pique Colorado's interest.
The New York Yankees have seen ample buzz as a suitor, but the Bronx Bombers might prioritize adding a left-handed outfield bat. With Corey Kluber sidelined and the back end of the rotation uncertain even with the eventual return of Luis Severino, they could also go after a rental starter.
How about the Oakland Athletics as a destination?
The Elvis Andrus trade has been an abomination for both the A's and Texas Rangers (who took back Khris Davis, among others), but it's been especially bad for Oakland. Andrus is hitting .211 with a .528 OPS and ranks in the 12th percentile in outs above average.
Acquiring Story could be a challenge for the A's given they would have to take on a pro-rated portion of his $18.5 million salary. They also don't have many farm assets to work with.
That said, Story might not be too expensive if the Rockies wait till July, and Oakland executive vice president Billy Beane is no stranger to making a big move.
Intriguing Landing Spot: Oakland Athletics
IF Eduardo Escobar, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Arizona Diamondbacks infielder Eduardo Escobar might not have outstanding numbers, but he's generating a lot of trade chatter.
Stark reported Escobar could be one of the first guys to move. One National League executive said he believes Escobar will draw "crazy" interest. But given he is a rental, his cost might not be high.
The 32-year-old won't take a lot of walks. He has a .283 OBP and ranks in the bottom 15 percent in walk rate. However, he can hit for power from both sides of the plate and drive in runs. He had 13 homers and led the NL with 39 RBI through Wednesday.
While the Boston Red Sox have a prolific offense, adding Escobar could make sense.
Boston has a number of guys who can play second, including Christian Arroyo, Enrique Hernandez and Marwin Gonzalez. None have given the Red Sox much production, however, as they rank 18th in rWAR at second base.
The Red Sox could try to flip Gonzalez's expiring deal and a couple of mid-level prospects to acquire Escobar, who could be a valuable bat and decent defender up the middle. Boston might choose to prioritize pitching, but it could be worth it for chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom to assess Escobar's market and cost.
The Milwaukee Brewers could be another club to watch in Escobar's market, but it's tough to determine what the Brew Crew may do with the infield after the Adames trade.
Intriguing Landing Spot: Boston Red Sox
OF Kyle Schwarber, Washington Nationals
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Washington Nationals outfielder Kyle Schwarber quietly had a strong month of May and is making himself into a trade asset. Executives told Stark they consider it more likely the Nationals move someone like Schwarber than veteran ace Max Scherzer.
Schwarber clubbed seven homers and posted an .857 OPS last month. He is slashing .238/.326/.446 on the season with a 111 weighted runs created plus (wRC+) value. Additionally, Schwarber's 53.1 hard-hit percentage is the best mark of his career.
All those numbers could appeal to the New York Yankees.
Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported the Yankees would "prioritize" left-handed bats at the trade deadline. They also rank last in the majors in rWAR in left field as Clint Frazier (.646 OPS) and Brett Gardner (.507 OPS) have struggled. Schwarber's power bat is an interesting option, especially given he's on an expiring contract and could thrive with the short porch in right field.
New York has expressed interest in Schwarber in the past. Perhaps this is the season the Bronx Bombers pull the trigger on a Schwarber deal as they try to provide a spark to a lineup that ranks 26th in baseball in runs per game and 24th in slugging.
Intriguing Landing Spot: New York Yankees
OF Starling Marte, Miami Marlins
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The Miami Marlins will probably fight tooth and nail to stay in contention. Still, they are building for the future and should not miss the chance to cash in on the value of a veteran player like Starling Marte.
Marte, 32, is in the final year of his deal. When healthy, he is one of the better outfielders in baseball, a guy who can hit for average and some pop while posing a danger on the bases and playing plus defense.
The former All-Star missed over a month with a rib fracture but is slashing .324/.430/.549 with three homers and four stolen bases in 19 games. His 90 mph average exit velocity and 45.3 percent hard-hit rate are both career highs.
Marte should have a number of suitors if the Marlins choose to move him ahead of the deadline. Cleveland should be at the top of the list.
Cleveland's outfield routinely ranks among the least productive in baseball. The current group has an 88 wRC+, 26th in the majors. Adding a dynamic hitter like Marte at the top of the lineup could go a long way for an offense that needs to find run support for a strong pitching staff. He can also play any of the three outfield spots.
Cleveland has baseball's No. 6 farm system, per Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter, and could outbid most suitors in Marte's market. Whether a small-market club is willing to give up a decent prospect haul for a rental is another question.
The Houston Astros might be another team to watch. Myles Straw has not been the solution to replacing George Springer in center.
Intriguing Landing Spot: Cleveland
DH Nelson Cruz, Minnesota Twins
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Things are spiraling for the Minnesota Twins.
While they won eight of their final 11 games in May, they dropped the last two games of their series with the Baltimore Orioles to open June. To make matters worse, Minnesota lost slugging backstop Mitch Garver to the IL after he underwent surgery on his groin.
The clock is ticking for the Twins. They entered Thursday's action 11 games back in the AL Central and nine games back in the wild-card race. It might be time to think about selling.
If Minnesota does punt at the deadline, it stands to reason Nelson Cruz would be on the move.
Cruz will turn 41 in July, and it was uncertain whether the Twins would bring him back before he re-upped on a one-year, $13 million deal. Minnesota would likely jump at the chance to get value for the slugging designated hitter.
The Tampa Bay Rays would be an interesting trade partner. It's possible the Rays go after more pitching at the deadline considering they rank sixth in MLB in runs per game. That said, they have internal pitching options and are closer to league-average in OPS and slugging, making Cruz an appealing target.
Cruz endured a tough May but is still slashing .274/.349/.500 with 10 homers and once again boasts elite batted-ball numbers. The Rays could try to flip Yandy Diaz or another MLB infielder plus some young pitching and move Ji-Man Choi to more of a full-time role at first to make room for Cruz. Then again, Choi's current groin issues might be enough to necessitate the need for another bat.
Intriguing Landing Spot: Tampa Bay Rays
RHP Jon Gray, Colorado Rockies
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Jon Gray is another Colorado Rockies trade chip likely to be on the move, perhaps before Trevor Story.
Robert Murray of FanSided reported the Rockies "began putting feelers out to teams" on Gray's market in spring training. He may have bolstered that market.
Gray is having one of the better seasons of his career. He has a 3.71 ERA in 11 starts and is inducing more weak contact. The 29-year-old ranks in the 94th percentile in barrel rate and 81st percentile in hard-hit rate, in part because of the 53.3 percent ground-ball rate.
Gray will be a free agent at the end of the season, but his age and stuff might inspire a team—ahem, the Chicago Cubs—to acquire him and try to re-sign him.
The Cubs lack future arm talent in the rotation, though Adbert Alzolay has been a major plus, and Brailyn Marquez will make his way back to the bigs. Additionally, Jake Arrieta and Zach Davies will be free agents this offseason.
Chicago has the offensive ceiling, and the bullpen (second in fWAR and ERA) has been terrific. The North Siders would benefit from stability in the rotation as they shoot for the NL Central crown, and Gray could provide the arm talent both in 2021 and in years to come. He also offers a different feel from some of the soft-tossers in the Cubs rotation with his velocity.
Intriguing Landing Spot: Chicago Cubs
RHP Kyle Gibson, Texas Rangers
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Kyle Gibson is one of the best assets for a Texas Rangers team likely to sell next month.
The 33-year-old was tremendous in 10 starts before being placed on the injured list (groin), posting a 2.24 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. He ranks in the 88th percentile in barrel rate and 78th percentile in expected slugging (xSLG) while also ranking above the league average in whiff rate and chase rate. Gibson uses his cutter-slider combination effectively on both left- and right-handed hitters, pounding opponents into the ground.
Gibson is also cheap and controllable. He is under contract for $7.7 million next season, the final year of his deal.
The Toronto Blue Jays could benefit from adding a starter like Gibson in both the immediate and future sense. The Blue Jays would probably prefer to fill out the rotation with a veteran rather than rely on youngsters like Alek Manoah and Nate Pearson, especially in a pennant race.
Moreover, Steven Matz and Robbie Ray will be free agents next season. Acquiring Gibson would give the Blue Jays another solidified rotation option as they let Manoah, Pearson and Simeon Woods Richardson develop and gain experience.
Is this a splashy move? Definitely not. Blue Jays fans might prefer an ace like Max Scherzer or more bullpen arms. However, Gibson could be a difference-maker who can keep the ball on the ground and eat innings.
Intriguing Landing Spot: Toronto Blue Jays
LHP Matthew Boyd, Detroit Tigers
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What should we make of Matthew Boyd's season?
The Detroit Tigers left-hander got off to a flying start, posting a 2.27 ERA through six starts in April. Boyd hit a snag in May, though, seeing a decrease in strikeouts per walk (3.43 to 2.88) and putting up a 5.32 ERA in four starts. He also got off on the wrong foot in June, giving up five runs (three homers) in Tuesday’s outing against the Milwaukee Brewers.
However, Boyd's peripherals are solid. The 30-year-old ranks above the 60th percentile in both hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. He also ranks in the 82nd percentile in chase rate. Boyd is having more success throwing the changeup, especially to right-handed hitters, and can get outs with the breaking ball.
This might be the year the Tigers move Boyd, who has one more season of arbitration eligibility in 2022. The New York Mets have one of the stronger rotations in baseball, but do not be surprised if they come calling for an arm at the deadline.
As good as the Mets rotation has been, it's top-heavy. David Peterson (5.89 ERA) and Joey Lucchesi (6.56 ERA) have both struggled following Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker.
Carlos Carrasco is still on the injured list and might not debut until July. Noah Syndergaard has been shut down for at least six weeks, and given the necessary ramp-up period, his status could be in doubt.
The Mets could look into Boyd as a lefty option. It might also make sense to get a controllable arm considering Stroman and Syndergaard will be free agents this winter.
Intriguing Landing Spot: New York Mets
RHP Ian Kennedy, Texas Rangers
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The Atlanta Braves need bullpen help, and Texas Rangers right-handed reliever Ian Kennedy could be the answer.
Kennedy signed a minor league deal with the Rangers in February. He has more than earned his contract, posting a 1.77 ERA and 0.93 WHIP while also converting 11 of 12 save opportunities.
The 36-year-old gives up some hard contact but also misses a lot of bats. Kennedy ranks in the 84th percentile in strikeout rate and 76th percentile in whiff rate, also ranking in the 77th percentile in walk rate.
Atlanta could be the spot for Kennedy. Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos is likely to hunt cheap and effective relievers—of which there are many—at the deadline. Kennedy might be the best option because he could allow Will Smith to move to the middle innings or possibly a setup role.
Atlanta's relievers rank 26th in ERA and 23rd in xFIP. Guys like A.J. Minter (6.75 ERA in the last four weeks) seem to be exhibiting signs of fatigue. It's time for reinforcements.
Even if the Braves don't land someone like Kennedy, expect them to be active in pursuing other relievers, such as Seattle's Kendall Graveman or the next guy on our list.
Intriguing Landing Spot: Atlanta Braves
RHP Richard Rodriguez, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Teams that need bullpen help have a number of reasons to love Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Richard Rodriguez.
The 31-year-old boasts a 3.19 career ERA in five seasons. He has a 2.84 ERA in his four seasons with the Bucs, including a 1.61 ERA in 2021. Moreover, he is making just $1.7 million this season and still has two years of arbitration eligibility.
Pittsburgh is likely to sell as high as it can on Rodriguez while it has multiple years of control. It could be a crowded market, but the San Francisco Giants might have the most incentive to make a play for the Pirates closer.
The Giants' bullpen ranks 24th in xFIP. Even more concerning, the ninth inning has been a problem. The Giants have 13 blown saves, tied for second-most behind the Los Angeles Dodgers with the Miami Marlins. That said, San Francisco's save percentage is closer to league average.
Rodriguez could give the Giants more assurances at the back end. He is a strike-thrower (99th percentile in walk rate) who could excel in front of a strong defense in spacious Oracle Park.
He could also be a building block and cheap asset as the Giants look to preserve money for what could be a big winter. San Francisco has around $30 million committed in 2022, making Rodriguez's financial affordability and club control all the more valuable.
Intriguing Landing Spot: San Francisco Giants
All stats obtained via Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant or FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. Stats are accurate prior to the start of play June 3.
