Latest Win-Loss Predictions for Every MLB Team After 2 Months
Memorial Day has passed, so it's time to check on the MLB standings.
The rule of thumb in baseball has always been to avoid the standings until after Memorial Day. The sample sizes are no longer small, and divisional games are starting to mean more.
Now, things get real. You are free to be optimistic about the first-place San Francisco Giants. You are also free to panic about any team hovering around .500. Since this is around the time that good teams begin to separate from the bad, we took a look at the standings projections from FanGraphs and the PECOTA playoff projections to get an idea of where each team might end up this fall.
There will be some positional jostling throughout the summer, and injuries and trades will affect the directions of each team. And, of course, we are still dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic, so the possibility for more coronavirus shutdowns is always there. But these projections are usually a good indicator of what a team's season will look like, give or take some injuries and shenanigans.
Order of teams is based on projected order of finish. All records and statistics are current as of Tuesday.
AL East
1 of 6
Tampa Bay Rays
Current record: 35-20, first place in AL East
Projected record: 56-51 in final 107 games, 91-71 on the season
The Rays have been on a tear over the last few weeks, winning 16 of their last 17 games and five in a row. Tampa Bay got off to a slow start and only a few weeks ago was 19-19, but this is about what we expected from defending American League champs.
Rich Hill helped the Rays down the New York Yankees on Monday. This team has been firing on all cylinders and that was evident Sunday. Hill scattered only three hits and two walks over five innings, his defense gave him a chance to win, and the Rays put the leadoff man on in innings 3-6.
Can they keep up this torrid pace? They'll likely slow down at some point, but the longer they keep this going, the better chance they have to stay on top in the division.
New York Yankees
Current record: 29-25, third place in AL East
Projected record: 62-46 over final 108 games, 91-71 on the season
The Bronx faithful have been upset with the team all season. The fans are upset with management for not spending past the luxury-tax threshold to maximize their opportunity for winning a championship while the window appears to be wide-open.
Injuries have hit the roster hard. The lineup is lacking with center fielder Aaron Hicks out for the season (wrist surgery) and first baseman Luke Voit out for a few weeks (oblique). But an already-thin rotation took another hit when Corey Kluber went down with a sub-scapular strain in his right rotator cuff. He's seeking more opinions on the injury and how to best proceed.
The good news is that Luis Severino and reliever Zack Britton are beginning rehab assignments. And it's the Yankees—it's not like they're ever really lacking in firepower. The bad news is they play in the unforgiving AL East.
Boston Red Sox
Current record: 32-21, second place in AL East
Projected record: 59-50 over the final 109 games, 91-71 on the season
The Red Sox lineup has slugged the team into contention, but the starting pitching has been inconsistent (4.20 ERA).
If these projections hold true and all three of these teams end up with the same record, then things could get interesting come September. But the Yankees and Red Sox will have to show that they have the pitching depth to get around the Rays, making for some late-season theatrics between two rival fanbases. It's a wild race and it's only going to get better.
Toronto Blue Jays
Current record: 27-25, fourth place in AL East
Projected record: 60-50 over final 110 games, 87-75 on the season
The Blue Jays went big over the winter and loaded up with the intent of competing with the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is looking like an MVP at only 22 years old. The Jays lead the American League with 77 home runs, so it's not out of the realm of possibility to think they could defy these projections with a big run at some point over the summer, especially if their prized offseason acquisition, outfielder George Springer (quadriceps), returns in the next few months.
Regardless, this is a good step forward for a team with aspirations of contending for the next few years.
Baltimore Orioles
Current record: 17-37, last place in AL East
Projected record: 45-63 over final 108 games, 62-100 on the season
The Orioles have lost their last 14 games. John Means' no-hitter was fun, but rebuilds are less so, and the rest of this season is just another tough rebuilding year.
AL Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox
Current record: 33-21, first place in AL Central
Projected record: 57-51 over the final 108 games, 90-72 on the season
The criticism of manager Tony La Russa is ongoing. Whether it's the controversy over the unwritten rules or the on-field managerial gaffes, there has been plenty of fodder for the detractors on the South Side to gripe about. But the White Sox are still in first place in the division, and barring disaster, they should stay there all season.
Cleveland Baseball Team
Current record: 29-24, second place in AL Central
Projected record: 53-56 over final 109 games, 82-80 on the season
Shane Bieber and Jose Ramirez have been the story in Cleveland, but the other story is whether they're enough to get Cleveland to a wild-card spot. It's not going to be easy trying to hold off the teams in the AL East, especially with a thin offense (25th-ranked OPS in baseball).
If the club manages to acquire a bat at the trade deadline, it may have a chance. But Cleveland has to be in position to buy before that can happen, so it will need to maintain this pace, at the very least, or surpass it.
Minnesota Twins
Current record: 22-31, fourth place in AL Central
Projected record: 58-51 over final 109 games, 80-82 on the season
The projections somehow still favor the Twins over the Royals, despite the fact that Minnesota has been downright awful. Its slide coincided with the loss of Byron Buxton (hip), and the timeline for him is still unclear with him having trouble decelerating when running.
But the Twins have won eight of their last 12, despite injuries to Max Kepler (hamstring), Kenta Maeda (groin) and Luis Arraez (shoulder), so maybe they can right the ship if they continue to get contributions from players like Robert Refsnyder and J.A. Happ.
Kansas City Royals
Current record: 26-26, third place in AL Central
Projected record: 53-57 over final 110 games, 79-83 on the season
This is what starts to happen around this time of year: regression to the mean. The Royals started May in first place in the division, but .500 is about what was expected for a rebuilding team. Danny Duffy is still having a fantastic season (4-3, 1.94 ERA) and Kyle Zimmer has proved to be a nice homegrown rotation piece, but the Royals probably don't have enough offense to make the postseason this year. PECOTA gives Kansas City a 1.1 percent chance of making the playoffs. Maybe next year.
Detroit Tigers
Current record: 22-32, last place in AL Central
Projected record: 47-61 over final 108 games, 69-93 on the season
It's another rebuilding year. Winning 69 games would be a big improvement from their last 162-game season, and a .425 win percentage would be an improvement over last season (22-32, .407). Small victories, Tigers fans. Take what you can get right now.
AL West
3 of 6
Houston Astros
Current record: 29-24, second place in AL West
Projected record: 59-50 over final 109 games, 88-74 on the season
This division is between the Astros and the A's. Given how close their projections are, it could come down to the final day of the regular season to determine the winner. The Astros have a top-five OPS in and a top-10 starting pitching ERA, but there are concerns when it comes to the bullpen. You have to imagine they'll try to address those at the trade deadline.
Oakland A's
Current record: 31-25, first place in AL West
Projected record: 55-51 over final 106 games, 86-76 on the season
The A's could win the division and make a deep postseason run that would barely be talked about. The conversation will likely be dominated by the club's threat of relocation, which is unfortunate because the A's remain interesting even without a true star.
Reliever James Kaprelian has finally graduated from prospect to big leaguer and looks to lock down a rotation spot (2-0, 2.95 ERA), reliever Yusmiero Petit is 7-0 in the bullpen, and Matt Olson has 13 home runs.
Los Angeles Angels
Current record: 24-30, fourth place in AL West
Projected record: 55-53 over final 108 games, 79-83 on the season
This is proving to be another disappointing season for the Angels, and just like in seasons past, the culprit is pitching. It's exciting to watch Shohei Ohtani take the mound and hit for himself every five days, but outside of Ohtani, it's mostly a bunch of bloated ERAs and the bullpen is bad. To make matters worse, Mike Trout is injured. If these projections hold true, the Halos will miss the postseason for a seventh straight season.
Seattle Mariners
Current record: 28-27, third place in AL West
Projected record: 48-59 over final 107 games, 76-86 on the season
The Mariners' postseason drought will extend to 20 seasons this year, but there is hope for the future. There should be plenty of playing time for top prospects Jerred Kelenic (center field) and Logan Gilbert (right-handed starter).
Texas Rangers
Current record: 22-33, last place in AL West
Projected record: 47-60 over final 107 games, 69-93 on the season
The emergence of Adolis Garcia will likely be the highlight of the season for the Rangers (16 home runs, 11 coming in May). Right fielder Joey Gallo could command a high price at the trade deadline that would benefit a rebuilding team.
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NL East
4 of 6
New York Mets
Current record: 26-20, first place in NL East
Projected record: 65-50 over final 115 games, 91-71 on the season
This division is a mess and the Mets' training room has a line all the way out to the apple in center field. On paper, a 91-win season seems possible with their elite pitching staff and deep lineup.
But the lineup hasn't produced as advertised. Shortstop Francisco Lindor has barely been hitting above the Mendoza line. Catcher James McCann looks like he may have regressed back to his pre-All Star form. But somehow the Mets keep finding ways to get the job done. If they were to win 90 or more games, it would be the just the third time the club has accomplished the feat since 2006.
Atlanta Braves
Current record: 25-26, second place in NL East
Projected record: 58-53 over final 111 games, 83-79 on the season
The Braves have some serious off-field issues with Marcell Ozuna, who was arrested Saturday and charged with aggravated assault by strangulation and misdemeanor family violence battery against Genesis Guzman, his wife. Police officers responding to a 911 call reported witnessing Ozuna, who is currently out of the lineup with two broken fingers, grab Guzman by the neck and throw her against a wall.
On the field, Atlanta has a difficult road in June with games against the Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers as well as divisional games against the Mets and Philadelphia Phillies. It could be a make-or-break month.
Philadelphia Phillies
Current record: 25-29, third place in NL East
Projected record: 54-54 over final 108 games, 79-83 on the season
The bullpen is key here. Once again, the Phillies are hamstrung by a bad bullpen (4.78 ERA, 26th in baseball). The division is somewhat open, but without a bullpen it's going to be a long summer.
Washington Nationals
Current record: 21-29, last place in NL East
Projected record: 56-56 over the final 112 games, 77-85 on the season
Is this where we start looking at possible landing spots for Max Scherzer? A trade out of Washington seems inevitable at this point. This is now two losing seasons in a row for the 2019 World Series champs, so it's fair to question whether or not that championship window is still open or not.
Miami Marlins
Current record: 24-28, fourth place in NL East
Projected record: 51-59 over final 110 games, 75-87 on the season
Somehow, the Marlins have the best run differential in the division (plus-10) despite the fact that Starling Marte, Sixto Sanchez and Brian Anderson have been out with injuries and Miguel Rojas also recently went down with a fractured finger. This division is so strange that maybe it isn't completely out of the realm of possibility for the Fish to defy projections and make some noise.
NL Central
5 of 6
Milwaukee Brewers
Current record: 29-25, third place in NL Central
Projected record: 55-53 over final 108 games, 84-78 on the season
It's tight at the top of the NL Central with the Cardinals, Brewers and Chicago Cubs all within a game or two of one another, but the projections still favor the Brewers to win the division. The PECOTA projections give the Brewers a 50.3 percent chance to win the division. The elite pitching staff certainly bodes well for any projection model. Milwaukee's 3.00 ERA is the fourth-best in baseball.
Chicago Cubs
Current record: 30-23, first place in NL Central
Projected record: 53-56 over final 109 games, 83-79 on the season
The outlook for the Cubs was pretty doom and gloom as the season started, but they've been playing so well they may avoid having to trade away Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez at the trade deadline. Instead, Chicago could be buyers trying to load up for one more run with the core of players that helped them win the World Series in 2016.
St. Louis Cardinals
Current record: 30-24, second place in NL Central
Projected record: 52-56 over final 108 games, 82-80 on the season
It doesn't sound like the Cardinals are about to make any big trades to try to drastically alter the roster, at least not based on comments general manager Michael Girsch recently made to reporters. Instead, St. Louis will have to hope Paul DeJong and Harrison Bader return from their respective injuries in a timely manner.
Cincinnati Reds
Current record: 24-28, fourth place in NL Central
Projected record: 54-56 over final 110 games, 78-84 on the season
The NL Central is probably not bad enough for the Reds to make a run and grab the division. The bullpen is the second-worst in baseball, so unless the relief corps does a big turnaround, the Reds' season likely won't turn around either.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Current record: 20-33, last place in NL Central
Projected record: 45-64 over final 109 games, 65-97 on the season
Not much to say here. Another rebuilding team and another rough season, but much like with the Tigers, there is one victory: The projected .404 winning percentage would be a marked improvement over the last few seasons (.377 in 2010 and .317 in 2019).
NL West
6 of 6
Los Angeles Dodgers
Current record: 32-22, third place in NL West
Projected record: 64-44 over final 108 games, 96-66 on the season
The defending World Series champs are starting to turn it on after a dismal stretch in which they went 4-14. It's no surprise the projections favor Los Angeles to jump over every other team in the division. They have the deepest roster in baseball with roster flexibility at nearly every position.
The one area that might have been lacking was the starting rotation since Dustin May was sidelined earlier this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but former AL Cy Young Award winner David Price has stepped in and made three starts on bullpen days, giving the bullpen a significant boost. The Dodgers are still the favorites until they aren't, and 96-win season seems plausible.
San Diego Padres
Current record: 34-21, second place in NL West
Projected record: 62-45 over final 107 games, 96-66 on the season
The biggest threat to Los Angeles is the upstart team from the south. The Padres might be the most fun team in baseball, but put Fernando Tatis Jr. on any team and it instantly becomes more fun.
The Friars have won 13 of their last 17, in part because of Tatis' brilliance at the plate: He's hit .364 with five home runs, 17 RBI and 12 runs over his last 10 games. Don't discount the San Diego bullpen either. It's currently the best in the big leagues.
San Francisco Giants
Current record: 34-20, first place in NL West
Projected record: 53-55 over the final 108 games of the season, 87-75 on the season
The Giants find themselves at the top of the NL West standings despite injuries to numerous veterans. Once pegged as a team too old to do more than finish .500, the remaining players from that World Series dynasty—catcher Buster Posey, shortstop Brandon Crawford and first baseman Brandon Belt (before going down with an injury)—have led San Francisco's resurgence.
Over the weekend, it was the pitching that led them past the Dodgers. Anthony DeSclafani, Logan Webb and Kevin Gausman outdueled Walker Buehler, Julio Urias and Clayton Kershaw. The Giants have one of the top pitching staffs in the National League.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Current record: 19-33, last place in NL West
Projected record: 49-58 over final 107 games of the season, 68-94 on the season
The Diamondbacks are sort of a nondescript team. They don't have a chance of competing in the division anytime soon, but they're saddled with the big contract of Madison Bumgarner. I'm not sure where they go from here, but losing 94 games should be a wake-up call that an identity is needed.
Colorado Rockies
Current record: 20-34, fourth place in NL West
Projected record: 44-64 over final 108 games, 64-98 on the season
The good news for the Rockies is that they'll be able to trade Trevor Story at the deadline and get some prospects back in return. But as long as the club remains resistant to a teardown, then Colorado will always be stuck in limbo: not enough to compete but aren't bad enough to do anything about it. A 98-loss season means it's time to do something about it. Tear it down already.
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