The Biggest 1st-Round Reach from Every NFL Draft in the Last 10 Years
The first round of any NFL draft usually isn't full of surprises. Anyone from a casual viewer to diehard fan to a veteran NFL scout can identify the most elite prospects.
Almost every year, though, the opening round has at least one selection that pops some eyeballs around the sport.
Those unexpected picks are best described as a reach.
Now, what we consider a reach is a reflection of consensus public opinion. NFL franchises, meanwhile, are confident in their own evaluations. For example, the alternate title of this piece could be "The Seattle Seahawks Don't Draft Like You or I Would."
Plus, simply because a player was a reach doesn't mean he was an unsuccessful pro. This list is based on a player's actual draft position in comparison to where he was generally expected to be selected.
2011: James Carpenter, Seattle Seahawks
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The 2011 draft includes some bad memories for the Minnesota Vikings, who picked Christian Ponder at No. 12. But later in the first round, the Seattle Seahawks made a more surprising pick.
With the No. 25 selection, they added Alabama offensive tackle James Carpenter. Though some draft analysts had a higher grade, he mostly received mid- to late-Day 2 projections. Plus, Seattle chose Carpenter over Wisconsin's Gabe Carimi and Mississippi State's Derek Sherrod, two tackles with a higher predraft billing.
Carpenter himself told reporters he expected to be a second-round pick, so even he didn't see it coming.
One decade later, Carpenter has enjoyed the last laugh. Between the Seahawks, New York Jets and Atlanta Falcons, he's started 121 games and won a Super Bowl with Seattle in 2013.
2012: Bruce Irvin, Seattle Seahawks
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Easily one of the most surprising recent first-rounders, Bruce Irvin is a prime example of why snap judgments are dangerous.
When the Seahawks used the No. 15 pick on Irvin in 2012, it floored the NFL draft community. The consensus board from Walter Football had the West Virginia pass-rusher as the No. 95 prospect. In other words, he barely held a third-round projection.
Instead, he joined a Seattle team that soon picked linebacker Bobby Wagner in the second round and an undersized quarterback named Russell Wilson in the third round.
Pretty good draft, no?
Though he dealt with injury issues and a suspension for violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy, Irvin had 22 sacks and 49 QB hits from 2012 to 2015 in Seattle. He later returned to the Seahawks in 2020, but a torn ACL ended his season after two games.
2013: EJ Manuel, Buffalo Bills
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Ah, yes, the good-ol' overdrafting of a quarterback.
Because of the position's importance—there isn't a more valuable player on the field—NFL teams desperate for a franchise quarterback will do, well, desperate things. Look, it's understandable! Sometimes, though, it goes horribly wrong.
B/R's consensus big board had Manuel as the No. 67 prospect in the 2013 class. However, the Buffalo Bills drafted him 16th even after trading down from the No. 8 slot.
Manuel averaged a meager 6.4 yards per pass attempt during a four-year tenure that included just 17 starts.
At least the Bills selected Oregon linebacker Kiko Alonso—the PFWA Defensive Rookie of the Year—with the second-round pick acquired in the trade with the St. Louis Rams. You win some, you lose some.
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2014: Ja'Wuan James, Miami Dolphins
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Ever so narrowly, the Philadelphia Eagles' pick of Marcus Smith survives. They drafted him 26th when the consensus board from Vikings Territory had the Louisville edge-rusher as the No. 66 player in the 2014 draft.
Instead, the Miami Dolphins have the spotlight.
Tennessee offensive tackle Ja'Wuan James checked in 70th on the consensus rankings, yet the Dolphins took him 19th. While they missed on future Pro Bowler Joel Bitonio—who went No. 35 to Cleveland—the decision wasn't a total bust.
While his tenure in Miami is best described as "serviceable," James started 62 games for the Dolphins.
2015: Ereck Flowers, New York Giants
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After a decent college career for Miami, Ereck Flowers had a Day 2 billing in 2015. Former B/R lead draft writer Matt Miller considered Flowers the No. 71 prospect in the class.
On draft night, however, Flowers went much higher. Ninth overall to the New York Giants, to be exact.
Although he logged 48 starts for the Giants in three-plus seasons, he struggled as a tackle. New York released him midway through the 2018 campaign. But in 2019, Flowers revived his career as a guard for the Washington Football Team.
He signed a three-year, $30 million deal with the hometown Dolphins in the 2020 offseason. Miami traded him back to Washington while swapping seventh-rounders in a cap-saving move earlier this week.
2016: Joshua Garnett, San Francisco 49ers
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If it's not Joshua Garnett, the Pittsburgh Steelers' selection of Miami cornerback Artie Burns at No. 25 would probably be the choice. However, the San Francisco 49ers traded into the first round to grab Garnett, who might've been available for them on Day 2.
"Might," of course, is the impetus for draft-day deals.
The Niners shipped the No. 37 choice and two other picks to the Kansas City Chiefs for No. 28 and a seventh-rounder. They snagged the Stanford guard, who ranked No. 60 on Cleveland.com's composite big board.
Garnett started 11 games as a rookie but missed all of 2017 with a knee injury. After that, toe and thumb injuries limited him to seven appearances until the 49ers declined his fifth-year option and released him prior to the 2019 season.
2017: Adoree' Jackson, Tennessee Titans
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Of these 10 drafts, 2017 went about as close to expectation as any of them. This isn't exactly a damning review.
Nevertheless, the Tennessee Titans used the No. 18 pick on USC cornerback Adoree' Jackson. He drew praise for his ball skills on defense and explosiveness as a returner, but size concerns (5'11") and inconsistency in coverage hurt Jackson's perception.
Before the draft, Miller ranked the speedster as the 10th-best player at his position and No. 57 overall. The only corners selected in front of Jackson were Marshon Lattimore and Marlon Humphrey.
Jackson started 41 games from 2017 to 2020 but managed only two interceptions and never became the game-changing weapon Tennessee likely hoped he would. The Titans released him in a cap-saving move following the 2020 season.
2018: Terrell Edmunds, Pittsburgh Steelers
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As the opening day of the 2018 draft neared its end, Terrell Edmunds came off the board two rounds earlier than anticipated.
Pittsburgh, which had recently signed Morgan Burnett to complement 2016 second-rounder Sean Davis, drafted the Virginia Tech safety at No. 28 overall. According to Cleveland.com's composite board, Edmunds was the 79th-ranked player in the class.
Entering the 2021 season, Edmunds has started 43 of 48 possible games and totaled 251 tackles. So far, he's provided a competent yet unspectacular impact in Pittsburgh's secondary.
2019: L.J. Collier, Seattle Seahawks
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With a nod to the Giants drafting Duke quarterback Daniel Jones at No. 6, the Seahawks still win out in 2019. Positional value helps explain New York's reach for Jones.
Seattle, though, stuck to its evaluation with TCU defensive end L.J. Collier. While most analysts viewed him as a Day 2 pick—Cleveland.com's composite big board pegged him No. 54 overall—the Seahawks snatched Collier at No. 29.
Collier held a minimal role as a rookie but joined the starting lineup in 2020, opening all 16 games and notching three sacks.
2020: Damon Arnette, Las Vegas Raiders
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The 2020 draft has several candidates for biggest reach. At least three players beyond Damon Arnette have a reasonable case: Texas Tech's Jordyn Brooks (Seahawks, No. 27), Georgia's Isaiah Wilson (Titans, No. 29) or Auburn's Noah Igbinoghene (Dolphins, No. 30).
In hindsight, twice-released Wilson would be considered the largest miss. Relative to rankings, though, it's Arnette.
According to Cleveland.com, he checked in 64th on the composite board—putting him on the border of the second and third rounds. Las Vegas selected the Ohio State corner at No. 19.
Arnette had a disappointing rookie year but is expected to hold a regular role for Las Vegas in 2021.
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