MLB Mailbag: Ban the Shift, Kris Bryant Trade, Tatis vs. Acuna, Yankees and More
Welcome to the Bleacher Report MLB mailbag!
There is never a shortage of opinions on the B/R app, so it's time to put your thoughts to work.
In the weeks to come, we'll narrow the focus of the mailbag to more specific themes and topics, but for now, we simply asked, "What's on your mind one month into the 2021 MLB season?"
Are the New York Yankees really this bad? Are the Kansas City Royals really this good? What would a Kris Bryant blockbuster trade look like? Is it time to ban the shift?
There was a lot to unpack, so let's get to it.
If you'd like to have your question or hot take included in a future mailbag, be on the lookout each Tuesday afternoon for the crowdsourcing thread on the MLB stream in the B/R app.
Who Would You Build Your Team Around?
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Fernando Tatis Jr. and Ronald Acuna Jr. have been lighting up the scoreboard lately. Who would you rather start your franchise with? (@Sports365)
The original question was a bit longer and opened the door for Juan Soto and others to also be picked, but we're going to focus on the Tatis vs. Acuna debate.
My first question is whether we're taking their contracts into consideration.
Assuming his club options are exercised, Acuna will earn $122 million over the next eight years, including the 2021 season and running through his age-30 campaign.
Tatis will earn $340 million over the next 14 years, including this year, with an annual salary of $36 million over the final six years of a contract that runs through his age-35 season.
If their deals are coming with them in this hypothetical, I'll take Acuna without thinking twice.
However, if we're wiping the slate clean financially, I'm inclined to go with Tatis. He's a full year younger and plays a more valuable defensive position. He's had some error issues this year, but I'm still confident he'll be a well-above-average defensive shortstop in the long run.
Both guys are going to be perennial MVP candidates for the next decade. It's just a bit more difficult to find an elite shortstop than it is an elite corner outfielder.
Hot Takes and Quick Hits
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If the Braves don't get better pitching, we aren't going anywhere. (@corbinhopkins)
I don't think the Braves need to go out and find better pitching. They just need the guys they have to get healthy. Max Fried (hamstring) and Mike Soroka (Achilles, shoulder) are two excellent pitchers sitting on the shelf, and Drew Smyly has not had an opportunity to settle in while battling some injury issues of his own. Luckily, they have more playable depth than a year ago. Give it a month or so before you push the panic button.
DeGrom MVP (@NYCSports321)
It looks like Acuna and Bryce Harper might have something to say about the NL MVP race, but it would be silly to rule Jacob deGrom out of the running. For a pitcher to win, he needs to be head and shoulders above everyone else, so guys like Corbin Burnes and Joe Musgrove could also be a factor in deGrom's candidacy.
Is Patrick Corbin washed? (@devbluejaysfan)
The good news is, Corbin's slider is still a really effective pitch. The issue seems to be his sinker, which opponents are clobbering to the tune of a .471 average and 1.235 slugging percentage. He's begun throwing his four-seam fastball more and his sinker less, and it might take him some time to dial things in, but as long as his elite slider is still fooling hitters, it's far too soon to call him washed.
The Nationals should have let Strasburg walk and saved cap to spend somewhere else. (@Sports4days)
With the benefit of hindsight, sure. When the Nats signed him to a seven-year, $245 million deal, Strasburg was fresh off a dominant postseason run that culminated in World Series MVP honors, and pitching was what got the Nationals to the World Series in the first place. They thought they had an heir apparent to Anthony Rendon at third base in prospect Carter Kieboom, which made letting him walk easier to swallow. It doesn't look great now, but most people thought it was the right move at the time.
Is It Time to Worry About Luis Castillo?
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How worried are you about Luis Castillo? (@aDerangedGaryFan)
It might be time to start worrying.
The Cincinnati Reds ace has a 6.29 ERA and 5.30 FIP through his first five starts, and opponents are hitting .317/.373/.525 against him on the year.
So what's the problem?
The average velocity on his four-seam fastball has dipped from 97.4 to 95.7 mph, and he's throwing his elite changeup much more often as a result of his less effective fastball.
That seems to be limiting his ability to generate swings and misses with his changeup, as the whiff rate against the pitch has plummeted from 40.1 to 29.4 percent.
None of that is particularly promising, and a drop in fastball velocity can sometimes be an indication of some underlying arm issues.
The 28-year-old is a better pitcher than what we've seen in the early going, and he'll need to get on track if the Reds are going to contend in the NL Central.
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Ban the Shift?
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Do you feel the league needs to make changes with the shift? I'm not necessarily against it, but I know it is brutal to a lot of guys. One in particular so far this season is Kyle Tucker. (@HOUSportsGuy)
We'll likely see some limitations on shifting imposed soon.
The launch-angle revolution has led to more home runs, more strikeouts and a less compelling on-field product for Major League Baseball. If you can't hit it through the shift, then try to hit it over the shift, right?
The wheels are already in motion in Double-A.
While there's no ban on putting three guys on one side of the second base bag, all four infielders are required to have both feet on the infield dirt when a pitch is thrown in 2021.
All those balls scorched through the right side of the infield by a left-handed power hitter will no longer be gobbled up by an infielder stationed in shallow right field.
That's a good place to start, and I'd anticipate seeing that implemented in the majors soon.
The Rise of Kendall Graveman
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Is Kendall Graveman actually an elite reliever? He obviously won't keep holding opponents to a .038/.138/.038 line, but I'm a big believer in his stuff now. (@joshuag71)
I became a Kendall Graveman believer the second I saw this GIF.
It takes some extremely deceptive stuff to get a major league hitter to swing at a pitch that winds up hitting him in the leg. The tunneling overlay of his 97 mph fastball and 89 mph slider does a great job of illustrating how difficult it is for hitters to differentiate between the two pitches.
The 30-year-old Graveman was a starter early in his MLB career, but after missing most of the 2018 season and all of 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery, he returned as a reliever with the Seattle Mariners.
A look at his pitch usage and average velocity in 2018 as a starter compared to 2021 as a reliever reveals a pitcher who has reinvented himself.
- 2018: Sinker (55.8%, 93.6 mph), Changeup (15.1%, 86.2 mph), Cutter (14.4%, 90.3 mph), Slider (13.0%, 81.0 mph)
- 2021: Sinker (59.6%, 96.6 mph), Slider (23.7%, 87.3 mph), Changeup (14.5%, 89.2 mph)
He has overhauled his slider from a low-80s afterthought to an upper-80s strikeout pitch, and that has turned him into one of the game's most unhittable relievers.
Who Is the NL Central Favorite?
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Are the Cardinals still the favorites to win the NL Central, and how far can they go in the playoffs? (@Harp10)
Were the St. Louis Cardinals ever the favorites?
The general consensus entering the year was that the NL Central was wide open, and that anyone other than the Pittsburgh Pirates could finish atop the standings.
With one month done, that hasn't changed much, aside from the fact that even the Pirates are looking like potential contenders.
But let's dig into the Cardinals.
The starting rotation is rounding into form, and seeing Carlos Martinez pitch into the eighth inning Tuesday was an extremely positive sign. He can be a real X-factor if he can start chewing up innings the way he did in his prime.
The bigger concern might be a relief corps that ranks 29th in the majors with 5.6 walks per nine innings, and while it hasn't burned them yet, that's a recipe for disaster.
Offensively, this might be the most dangerous Cardinals team we've seen in years, with Nolan Arenado joining the fray and Dylan Carlson looking like the NL Rookie of the Year front-runner.
I'll still take the Milwaukee Brewers as NL Central favorites thanks to that lethal one-two punch of Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, and an offense that has not come close to its full potential, but the Cardinals are clear postseason contenders.
Could Matt Harvey Return to New York?
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Any chance if he continues to perform well, the Dark Knight Matt Harvey returns to Gotham in pinstripes? (@dcamp5)
Don't look now, but Matt Harvey is a useful MLB starter.
The 32-year-old pitched his way into the Baltimore Orioles rotation after he joined the club on a minor league deal, and through five starts, he's gone 2-1 with a 4.26 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 21 strikeouts in 25.1 innings.
It's no secret the New York Yankees will be in the market for starting pitching help this summer, and they got a firsthand look at Harvey on Monday when he allowed three hits and one earned run in six strong innings to pick up the win.
It makes perfect sense to think the O's will squeeze 15 or so starts out of Harvey to help take some pressure off their young arms and then flip him to the highest bidder.
Meanwhile, the list of obvious starting pitching trade candidates is relatively short, with Texas Rangers right-hander Kyle Gibson and Colorado Rockies right-hander and free-agent-to-be Jon Gray part of that group.
All of that would seem to make a Harvey-to-New York trade a realistic possibility, at least sitting here at the end of April. But a lot can change before the trade market heats up.
For now, a 3.28 FIP and that strong start against the Yankees provides reason for optimism he can sustain this.
Buy or Sell the Royals as Legitimate Contenders?
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Are the Royals legit contenders or pretenders? (@BoyInBlue)
The Los Angeles Dodgers are still the consensus best team in baseball, but it's the Kansas City Royals who boast the sport's best winning percentage entering play Wednesday with a 14-8 record.
How did they get here after consecutive 100-loss seasons in 2018 and 2019 and another losing campaign in 2020?
Props to the front office for genuinely trying to improve the team at a time when most on the fringe of contention were content to phone it in.
K.C. added first baseman Carlos Santana, left fielder Andrew Benintendi, center fielder Michael A. Taylor, bench players Hanser Alberto and Jarrod Dyson, starter Mike Minor and reliever Wade Davis to improve what was already a roster on the rise.
But is their hot start for real?
It's hard to ignore the fact that they've gone 6-1 with a plus-17 run differential against the Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers, compared to 8-7 with a minus-14 run differential against everyone else.
This looked like a team capable of hovering around the .500 mark and perhaps factoring into the wild-card race when the season began, and that's where the Royals will end up.
Kris Bryant Blockbuster
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A trade proposal for Kris Bryant. Including prospects that both teams say yes to. (@tokyo33)
I don't love a question phrased as a command, but let's do it.
Kris Bryant is hitting .289/.375/.618 with seven doubles, six home runs and 16 RBI in 88 plate appearances and looking very much like his previous MVP self.
The 29-year-old is also a free-agent-to-be who will almost certainly test the open market this winter, which means he's a pure rental for any team that makes a move to acquire him this summer. That takes a bite out of his trade value, but he'll still command a premium if he keeps raking.
Here's a look at three fair trade proposals for both sides:
- To NYM (to play 3B): In exchange for 3B Mark Vientos, LHP Thomas Szapucki, RHP Jordany Ventura, RHP Ryley Gilliam
- To BOS (to play LF): In exchange for RHP Bryan Mata, SS Matthew Lugo, RHP Thad Ward, RHP Jacob Wallace
- To ATL (to play 3B): In exchange for LHP Kyle Muller, 1B Bryce Ball, LHP Thomas Burrows
The Washington Nationals are off to a rocky start and no longer look like a clear contender for his services, but other teams will most definitely be involved, especially given his ability to shift to the outfield to better fit a contender's roster.
The Cubs won't simply trade him to trade him, and they'll likely settle for extending a qualifying offer while continuing to talk extension if no one meets their asking price.
Will the Yankees Figure Things Out?
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Do you think the Yankees are going to get better? (@oneillkel)
The New York Yankees no longer look like the AL pennant favorites and clear-cut World Series contenders that many pegged them as entering the season.
But things have to get better eventually, right?
Entering play Wednesday, the offense ranked near the bottom among AL teams in batting average (.210, 13th), OPS (.668, 12th) and runs scored (82, 14th).
The starting pitching is an issue, and that could eventually have an impact on the bullpen as its innings start to pile up, but there's no reason this can't be one of the best lineups in baseball.
Clint Frazier (41 OPS+), Aaron Hicks (57 OPS+), Gleyber Torres (74 OPS+), DJ LeMahieu (107 OPS+) and Giancarlo Stanton (109 OPS+) are all capable of far more than they've shown, and once the offense heats up, it will take a lot of pressure off the pitching staff.
It's a long season, and they have nowhere to go but up.
They're not as good as most expected them to be, but they're also nowhere near as bad as they've looked.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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