Predicting Potential Trade Packages, Landing Spots for Julio Jones
We're only a few days away from the 2021 NFL draft in Cleveland, and an annual part of those festivities are the trades that take place.
We've already seen the San Francisco 49ers mortgage their future to move up to the third overall pick, while the Baltimore Ravens flipped Pro Bowl tackle Orlando Brown Jr. to the Kansas City Chiefs for a package that included the 31st pick in 2021.
A likely Hall of Famer doesn't become available every year. But if recent reports are to be believed, one may be in 2021.
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According to Albert Breer of Sports illustrated and Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, the Atlanta Falcons are at least listening to offers for star wideout Julio Jones, who has three years left on his current contract.
While Jones isn't getting any younger, is coming off a down 2020 campaign and carries a hefty salary, there is no shortage of teams that make at least some sense as trade partners for the 32-year-old.
Trading Jones would give Atlanta a chance both to shed salary and add draft picks with which to accelerate its rebuild. As things stand right now, the Falcons have less than $1 million in cap space, per Over the Cap. That's not even enough to sign the incoming rookie class.
A trade could offer Jones another chance to take a run at a Super Bowl ring, which isn't likely in Atlanta given the current state of the Falcons. Adding a wideout who has averaged more receiving yards per game (95.5) than any player in NFL history should be a tempting proposition for any contender.
However, there are some roadblocks to such a trade. The first is timing.
The Falcons can't afford to trade Jones (officially at least) until after June 1. Doing so would trigger a massive dead cap hit of $23.3 million. By waiting until June, Atlanta can spread the cap charge over two years and save $15.3 million against this year's cap.
That means picks in this year's draft are off the table in any Jones trade package.
The second sticking point is what it would take to get the deal done. Breer speculated that a Jones trade would require a first-rounder (or the equivalent). Peter King of NBC Sports, on the other hand, called a future second-rounder "fair" compensation.
On some level, it likely depends on how robust the market becomes for Jones' services. A first-round pick would all but certainly get the deal done, as Atlanta needs all the draft capital it can get to fix holes on both sides of the ball. But if teams are leery of making that robust of an investment in an aging receiver, a package headlined by a Round 2 selection may be as good as it gets.
In any event, there are a handful of teams that make sense for one reason or another as suitors for Jones.
The Green Bay Packers are probably the least likely destination for Jones of any team featured here, but they're most fun to speculate about.
The Packers have won 13 games and reached the NFC Championship Game in each of the past two seasons. But the team's Super Bowl window isn't going to stay open forever, and the wide receiver spot opposite star Davante Adams has long been a question mark.
Jones would answer that question emphatically. The one-two punch of Jones and Adams catching passes from 2020 MVP Aaron Rodgers would be the stuff of nightmares for opposing defenses.
It would be a bold move by Green Bay, but it would also vault the Packers to the top of the list of challengers to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC.
Finding the cash to pay Jones would take some doing, but selling Aaron Rodgers on a contract restructuring would be a lot easier if that wiggle room were being used to pay one of the league's best pass-catchers.
And parting with a Round 1 pick is easier to stomach if it could result in a championship.
Baltimore Ravens
It's too bad that Jones can't be traded before June 1. Were that not the case, the Baltimore Ravens could use the extra pick that they obtained from the Kansas City Chiefs to vault to the top of the list of potential suitors for Jones' services.
The Ravens made a concerted effort to upgrade the passing-game weapons available to Lamar Jackson in free agency, but they were largely unsuccessful. Just about everyone believes that Baltimore will draft a wideout with either the 27th or 31st pick on Thursday.
Trading for Jones wouldn't preclude the Ravens from doing that. But it would give Baltimore options, and there's quite a bit of difference between hoping that a young receiver like Florida's Kadarius Toney can become a No. 1 receiver and knowing Jones has spent the past decade doing so.
The Ravens currently sit about $15 million under the salary cap, and with the AFC North shaping up as perhaps the NFL's toughest division in 2021, Baltimore general manager Eric DeCosta has to at least consider any move that will help the Ravens keep pace with the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers.
Among contending teams, no franchise is in better shape to take on Jones' salary in 2021 than the Indianapolis Colts. Of the league's 14 playoff teams from this past season, Indy has the most available cap space with $22.4 million.
The Colts also have a general manager in Chris Ballard who has demonstrated that he's willing to be aggressive on the trade market. Last year, he traded the No. 13 overall pick to the San Francisco 49ers for defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. This year, Ballard addressed the retirement of Philip Rivers by making a deal with the Philadelphia Eagles for quarterback Carson Wentz.
The Wentz trade may well be the biggest obstacle to acquiring Jones. Provided that Wentz plays 75 percent of the Colts' snaps in 2021, the team's first-round pick next year will head to Philly. If he doesn't, the pick becomes a second-rounder.
Giving up another high pick would be a steep price to pay. But bringing in Jones would be a massive boost to a position group currently headlined by T.Y. Hilton and Michael Pittman Jr.
Calling the New England Patriots a contender may be stretching the definition of that word a bit. But given the way that they attacked free agency this year, they appear hell-bent on making last year's 7-9 campaign a one-off.
The Pats have already taken sizable steps to improve their receiving corps this offseason, inking veterans Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne in free agency. But while Agholor is coming off the best season of his six-year career, he and Bourne have combined for a grand total of zero 1,000-yard seasons.
By weight of comparison, Jones has amassed seven such campaigns.
With just over $16 million in cap space, making room for Jones' salary wouldn't be a big reach. The taller task might be parting with the draft picks necessary to acquire Jones, especially if the Pats want to trade up in this year's draft to land a quarterback.
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