2021 NFL Draft: Complete 1st-Round Order, Odds and Mocks for Top Prospects
As soon as the 2020 NFL regular season ended and it became official that the Jacksonville Jaguars would have the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft, it was clear what was going to happen: Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence should be beginning his professional career with the Jags.
This week, the New York Jets made it clear what they'll likely be doing with the No. 2 overall selection. They traded quarterback Sam Darnold to the Carolina Panthers, so they should be drafting his replacement with that pick. And that will likely be BYU's Zach Wilson, who impressed at his pro day last month.
Things aren't quite as clear from there, although it seems likely that other quarterbacks will be coming off the board early in the draft, which begins with the opening round on April 29 and runs through May 1.
As the draft gets closer, here's a look at an updated mock draft for the first round, followed by some intriguing odds to consider betting on this year, via DraftKings Sportsbook.
1st-Round Mock Draft
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
2. New York Jets: Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
3. San Francisco 49ers: Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
4. Atlanta Falcons: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
5. Cincinnati Bengals: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
6. Miami Dolphins: DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
7. Detroit Lions: Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
8. Carolina Panthers: Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
9. Denver Broncos: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
10. Dallas Cowboys: Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern
11. New York Giants: Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
12. Philadelphia Eagles: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
13. Los Angeles Chargers: Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
14. Minnesota Vikings: Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC
15. New England Patriots: Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
16. Arizona Cardinals: Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
17. Las Vegas Raiders: Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
18. Miami Dolphins: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
19. Washington Football Team: Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State
20. Chicago Bears: Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
21. Indianapolis Colts: Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
22. Tennessee Titans: Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
23. New York Jets: Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
25. Jacksonville Jaguars: Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame
26. Cleveland Browns: Gregory Rousseau, DE, Miami
27. Baltimore Ravens: Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU
28. New Orleans Saints: Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
29. Green Bay Packers: Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia
30. Buffalo Bills: Jayson Oweh, DE, Penn State
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Azeez Ojulari, LB, Georgia
Who Will 49ers Take with No. 3 Pick?
Top Odds to be No. 3 Pick
Alabama QB Mac Jones: -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
Ohio State QB Justin Fields: +250 (bet $100 to win $250)
North Dakota State QB Trey Lance: +300
BYU QB Zach Wilson: +1400
LSU WR Ja'Marr Chase: +5000
Florida TE Kyle Pitts: +5000
The odds are in favor of the 49ers drafting a new franchise quarterback, which could bring Jimmy Garoppolo's time as San Francisco's starter to an end. It makes sense that's what the 49ers would do after trading their 2022 and 2023 first-round picks and a 2022 third-round pick to the Miami Dolphins in order to move up from No. 12 in this year's draft.
So, San Francisco must have its eye on a new franchise quarterback. But who will that be? Wilson is only listed in case New York passes over him at No. 2, but that seems highly unlikely at this point.
That leaves the 49ers to decide between Jones, Fields and Lance, each of whom offers different skill sets. But Lance is the one who ESPN's Todd McShay believes would be a "perfect fit."
"He's great in terms of play action, and San Francisco is fourth in the league in play-action snaps this past year," McShay recently said, per Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area. "That's what Kyle Shanahan wants to do, and that's a big part of what their offense is."
Although the betting odds are better for Jones or Fields to go to the 49ers, it would make more sense for them to draft Lance and build around him moving forward.
Prediction: 49ers draft Trey Lance at No. 3
When Will Pitts Come off the Board?
Odds for Kyle Pitts' Draft Position
Over 5.5: -104
Under 5.5: -121
It's quite possible that the first four players taken in this year's draft will be quarterbacks, as the Falcons may want to start planning ahead for the post-Matt Ryan era. But the Bengals already have their franchise quarterback, having taken Joe Burrow with the No. 1 overall pick last year.
That means Cincinnati could go several different directions with its No. 5 pick, including taking Pitts, who would give Burrow a strong receiving option to throw to at tight end. Pitts has the potential to develop into a top-tier tight end, which he showcased throughout his time at Florida.
However, the Bengals should address their offensive line instead so that Burrow is better protected, meaning they could take Oregon tackle Penei Sewell. And that will leave Pitts to be selected at No. 6 or later, making that a wise prop bet to consider.
It's possible that Pitts could slide out of the top 10, depending on other teams' decisions and whether or not there are trades. But assuming the order stays the same, Pitts shouldn't be taken later than No. 11, as the Giants would likely take him there, which would be a great selection to help boost their offense.
Prediction: Pitts gets drafted outside of the top five
How Many Running Backs Will Go in First Round?
Odds for Number of RBs Drafted in First Round
Over 0.5: -225
Under 0.5: +175
This should be one of the safer prop bets to make ahead of the draft. Not only is it probable that at least one running back will get taken in the first round, there's a strong chance that two will come off the board within the first 32 selections.
Clemson's Travis Etienne and Alabama's Najee Harris are the top two running backs in this year's class, and both are worthy of first-round selection. There are also several teams that should be considering a running back late in the first round, including the Jets and Steelers.
Etienne and Harris each spent four years at their respective schools, and both got onto the field beginning in their freshman years, so each has a ton of college experience under their belts. Because of that, it wouldn't be surprising if both had smooth transitions to the NFL and quickly became contributors at the pro level.
These are two first-round-caliber running backs, so bet on both coming off the board in the opening round.
Prediction: Two running backs get drafted in the first round
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