5 Teams That Can Prevent Superteam Dodgers from Repeating as World Series Champs
The Los Angeles Dodgers won their first World Series since 1988 this past season and are ready to run it back in 2021.
They already had perhaps the most talented, balanced team in the majors. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman did some bullpen reconfiguration and brought back Justin Turner.
Of course, L.A. reeled in the big fish by inking 2020 National League Cy Young Award winner Trevor Bauer. He and the returning David Price afford the Dodgers options both in the rotation and the bullpen by bumping young arms to the relief corps.
Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections have the Dodgers at 104 victories. FanGraphs projects L.A. will win 98 games. Both formulas feel the reigning champions will be the best team in baseball.
The Dodgers also head into 2021 as World Series favorites, per DraftKings. But which five teams are best positioned to get in the way of back-to-back titles?
The list is based on 2020 performance and offseason additions, among other things.
Missed the Cut
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The following is a list of teams that came up just short because of one or more critical flaws:
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have a terrific young core and should get a huge boost from George Springer at the top of the lineup. But their biggest offseason need was in the rotation, a unit full of question marks.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays repositioned decently after the Blake Snell trade and will bank on their crop of young arms. However, the rotation is still an unknown, and the lineup might not have enough consistent pop.
Cleveland
There is still plenty of arm talent, and Eddie Rosario gives Cleveland outfield production. But the club doesn't have enough offense.
Minnesota Twins
Unlike their American League Central counterpart in Cleveland, the Twins should have ample offense. In Minnesota's case, it's about the rotation. Michael Pineda is an unknown coming off a 60-game suspension for violating the league's performance-enhancing drug policy, J.A. Happ is 38 and Matt Shoemaker has not strung together a healthy season in years.
Oakland Athletics
The A's had a tremendous offseason considering the talent lost to free agency, including shortstop Marcus Semien and closer Liam Hendriks. Still, the rotation is an uncertainty, especially if top arms like Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk struggle to develop.
Houston Astros
Springer's loss hurts, but the Astros should get back to their winning ways if stars rebound and with Yordan Alvarez rejoining the fold. But despite some of its arm talent and the addition of Jake Odorizzi, Houston's rotation will suffer without Justin Verlander (Tommy John surgery) and Framber Valdez (fractured finger). The bullpen is not terribly deep, either.
Washington Nationals
Do not sleep on the Nats. Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber could be major run-producers if they're going right, and the top three starting pitchers, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin, can go against any other rotation. However, age and health are questions there, and the club is missing quality bullpen depth even after the addition of Brad Hand.
St. Louis Cardinals
The addition of Nolan Arenado should help tremendously. But the Cardinals still ranked 10th and 14th in the NL in runs scored in each of the last two years, respectively. There just isn't enough offensive firepower, and Dakota Hudson's absence (Tommy John) will be a hit to the starting pitching depth.
Atlanta Braves
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We have to start with the team that came within one win of eliminating the Dodgers in the NLCS.
The Atlanta Braves still have every reason to believe they can beat Los Angeles. Atlanta ranked second in runs scored and first in OPS last season. General manager Alex Anthopoulos re-signed Marcell Ozuna, who once again should provide lineup protection for Ronald Acuna Jr. and Freddie Freeman.
Speaking of Acuna, he is only getting better. The 23-year-old nearly had a 40-40 season in 2019 and then posted a career-high .987 OPS in 2020. Most importantly, Acuna's walk rate has risen in each of the last two seasons, and it was a whopping 18.8 percent last summer.
Acuna will set the tone for a Braves team that should score a lot of runs. Still, the most significant additions came in the rotation.
Charlie Morton could be one of the offseason's more underrated signings. The veteran right-hander struggled to a 4.74 ERA in 2020 because of shoulder trouble but is one season removed from a 3.05 ERA and career-best 2.81 FIP.
Morton could be a front-line starter alongside Max Fried and eventually Mike Soroka, who is on the mend from an Achilles tear. Ian Anderson, 22, looked terrific last season and has a tremendous fastball-changeup combination. Guys like Drew Smyly, Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson and Huascar Ynoa can all provide starts at the back end.
Atlanta could use more bullpen depth. But the offense is potent, and the rotation has tremendous potential. Plus, the Braves have the farm assets to make a major midseason move, if necessary.
San Diego Padres
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President of baseball operations A.J. Preller and the San Diego Padres operated this offseason like a team primed to win the World Series. The rotation upgrades might do the trick.
Yu Darvish came over from the Cubs and has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since the 2019 All-Star break. He ranks first in expected FIP and second in SIERA in that timeframe, also averaging 10.1 strikeouts per walk.
Snell had a 3.24 ERA in 2020 after an injury-riddled 2019 and had moments of dominance in October, especially Game 6 of the World Series with Tampa Bay. He will likely also be motivated by the chance to go deeper into games.
The final addition to the rotation was Joe Musgrove, fresh off a career-high 12.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Musgrove, 28, ranked in the 93rd percentile in average exit velocity allowed last season, also ranking in the 84th percentile in whiff rate. He could be on the verge of a breakout.
Combine those three with Dinelson Lamet, and you have a rotation capable of going tit for tat with L.A.’s deep staff. The Friars can also put runs on the board.
San Diego ranked third in the NL in runs scored and fourth in OPS in 2020. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado headline the position player group, but the Padres also get left-handed pop from Eric Hosmer, Jake Cronenworth and Trent Grisham. Here's another interesting bit: San Diego ranked second in FanGraphs' defensive (Def) metric in 2020.
The Padres have aces in the rotation, a deep position group (with bench options) and play excellent defense. Sounds like a World Series contender, no?
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New York Yankees
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The New York Yankees will be offensively potent. We know that.
New York led the AL in both runs scored and OPS in 2020, despite down years from Gary Sanchez and Gleyber Torres as well as injuries to Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.
If Judge and Stanton are mostly healthy, this might be the most prolific offense in baseball, especially after the Bronx Bombers re-signed DJ LeMahieu. The Yankees are also deeper because of the emergence of Clint Frazier, with Brett Gardner shifting to a utility outfield role.
Still, the rotation invites skepticism. Corey Kluber, Jameson Taillon and Luis Severino have all thrown sparingly in recent years because of injuries.
But Kluber's command and stuff figure to be there if healthy after he sat out most of last year with a torn shoulder muscle, and Severino—who is recovering from Tommy John surgery but should be back sometime this summer—has terrific strikeout stuff. Taillon had a 3.20 ERA in 2018 and has a career 3.55 FIP, and after Tommy John surgery, finds himself reunited with former Pittsburgh Pirates teammate Gerrit Cole.
All three guys have upside following Cole in the rotation. Jordan Montgomery has strong peripherals for a back-end starter, and young arms like Deivi Garcia, 21, and Clarke Schmidt, 25, add depth in that regard.
The bullpen still has many of the main players, with veteran righty Darren O'Day and lefty Justin Wilson replacing Adam Ottavino and Jonathan Holder, among others. The elbow injury to Zack Britton is a setback, but the likes of Jonathan Loaisiga and Luis Cessa can help fill the void until the left-hander returns.
Although injuries could test New York's pitching depth, it has plenty of upside, and the offense's ceiling could be the highest in baseball.
New York Mets
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Not buying the New York Mets hype? You probably should.
The Mets ranked just seventh in the NL in runs scored in 2020 but were third in OPS. New York's lineup figures to get a boost from offseason acquisitions Francisco Lindor and James McCann. Both guys might have an even bigger defensive impact.
Former Mets shortstop Amed Rosario posted minus-29 defensive runs saved and a minus-5.0 ultimate zone rating (UZR) from 2018 to 2020. Lindor racked up 26 defensive runs saved and a 26.3 UZR in that same span. He gives New York a platinum glove at a premium position, which should not be underestimated in terms of run prevention.
McCann has a 36 percent career caught stealing rate, a massive improvement over Wilson Ramos (18 percent caught stealing in 2020). McCann is also a strong game-caller with some pop at the dish.
The rotation—which ranked 26th in ERA last season—should be much better. Carlos Carrasco had a 2.91 ERA in 2020 after ranking seventh in fWAR among starters from 2015 to 2018. Marcus Stroman is back after a torn calf and subsequent opt-out and showing off a ridiculous split-changeup in spring training.
Although Noah Syndergaard might not be back until June, he is progressing well in his Tommy John rehab. Taijuan Walker was an excellent late signing as a back-end guy, and both David Peterson and Joey Lucchesi supply depth. Of course, Jacob deGrom headlines the group.
New York added to the bullpen by signing Trevor May and Aaron Loup. Perhaps Edwin Diaz (four blown saves in 10 appearances) could use a nudge for the closer job, but he regained dominance with a 1.75 ERA and 17.5 K/9 in 2020. Seth Lugo could figure into the mix there.
The Mets can score and should show some defensive improvement. But the changes in the rotation define their contender status.
Chicago White Sox
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Yes, the Chicago White Sox's rotation gives some pause. Dylan Cease must make strides, and Carlos Rodon cannot repeat his struggles of the past two seasons. Michael Kopech's role will likely be determined based on health after his 2018 Tommy John surgery, with youngsters such as Jonathan Stiever possibly ready to contribute.
That said, the Lance Lynn acquisition gives Chicago a legitimate top three along with Lucas Giolito and Dallas Keuchel. Meanwhile, the position group and bullpen both have plentiful talent.
The South Siders ranked second in the AL in runs scored and OPS in 2020. Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert are the run-producers, with Tim Anderson and Nick Madrigal providing the hit tool.
The offense could be even better with Adam Eaton replacing Nomar Mazara in right field, and top prospect Andrew Vaughn (65 hit tool, per MLB.com) can do damage in the designated hitter spot. A healthier version of Yoan Moncada figures to help as well.
The bullpen might be the most intriguing group. Hendriks is a relief weapon unlike any other, and left-hander Aaron Bummer is back after missing most of last season because of a left biceps strain. Lefty Garrett Crochet, 21, has electric stuff, and fellow youngsters Codi Heuer, 24, and Matt Foster, 26, were exceptional in 2020.
Granted, relievers are volatile. But full seasons from Bummer and Crochet would give the White Sox three elite-caliber arms at the back end, with Hendriks capable of throwing multiple innings and a slew of young arms ready to make a bigger impact.
A deep, effective bullpen is a huge plus for Chicago, especially if back-end starters struggle. Throw that in with three excellent starters at the front of the rotation and one of the top offenses in baseball, and Chicago will be as tough as any team.
All stats obtained via Baseball Reference, FanGraphs or Baseball Savant, unless otherwise noted.
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