The Most Overhyped Rookie NBA Busts Since 2000
Hype is a constant in NBA draft history, and the past two decades are loaded with cautionary tales.
To be fair, no organization has a perfect record in the draft. While every team has a glaring mistake, though, some have struck out badly when overvaluing a popular college star or failing in their pursuit of the next great international player.
And sometimes the result is what both players and franchises want to avoid: the dreaded "bust" label.
We focused on high first-round picks who failed to match the predraft hype. The primary factors used are total production and career length in the NBA, and the list is organized by draft year.
More to Know
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Kwame Brown (No. 1, 2001): From a production standpoint, Brown was a total bust. He topped out at 10.9 points and 7.4 rebounds per game and spent much of his career—across seven franchises—as a backup. However, he played 12 NBA seasons, which is much better than many others can say.
Darko Milicic (No. 2, 2003): The same applies to Milicic, who's best remembered for being the player selected between LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade. Milicic was a victim of circumstance as NBA teams desperately tried to find the next Dirk Nowitzki, something that never came. Milicic provided 6.0 points, 4.2 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per games over 10 seasons.
Sebastian Telfair (No. 13, 2004): In high school, Telfair landed a Sports Illustrated cover. Similar to Brown and Milicic, though, only a long career reduces the sting of unmet potential. He managed 7.4 points and 3.5 assists per game in 10 years.
Derrick Williams (No. 2, 2011): After an All-American career at Arizona, Williams looked like a high-end talent. But as a pro, his shooting range vanished. Williams averaged 8.9 points per game in seven seasons, so he made an impact; it just wasn't a great one.
Anthony Bennett (No. 1, 2013): Perhaps it's unfair to pile on Bennett. In a draft most everyone labeled weak, he absorbed the expectations that are automatically placed on the No. 1 pick. Nevertheless, managing 4.4 points and 3.1 rebounds per game while playing for a different team in all four of his pro seasons is rough.
Emmanuel Mudiay (No. 7, 2015): Mudiay drew comparisons to Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Kobe Bryant and Elgin Baylor those who watched him play before the draft. Oops. Mudiay scored 11.0 points per game in five seasons, but his shot never developed.
Nikoloz Tskitishvili
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Drafted fifth overall in 2002, Nikoloz Tskitishvili has the strongest "Next Dirk Nowitzki" connection.
Kiki VanDeWeghe helped develop Nowitzki in Dallas and became the Denver Nuggets' general manager in August 2001. During his first draft, VanDeWeghe picked Tskitishvili, a 7-footer from the country of Georgia whom an anonymous GM called a hybrid of Kevin Garnett and Kobe Bryant.
You know KG. You know Kobe. But probably not Skita.
Tskitishvili spent four unremarkable years in the NBA, averaging 2.9 points and 1.8 rebounds in 11.3 minutes per game. He played 143 games with Denver and totaled 29 appearances with the Golden State Warriors, Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns.
Adam Morrison
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Following a legendary career at Gonzaga, Adam Morrison entered the NBA as the No. 3 pick of the then-Charlotte Bobcats in 2006. "The Stache" put up 11.8 points per game as a rookie but struggled to shoot efficiently and didn't provide much on defense.
While that combination led to his decline, a torn left ACL in the 2007 preseason certainly didn't help. Morrison returned but held a minimal role, and Charlotte soon traded him to the Los Angeles Lakers.
On one hand, joke's on us! Los Angeles won championships in 2009 and 2010, giving Morrison two rings.
Realistically, though, he totaled 298 regular-season and playoff minutes with Los Angeles before his NBA career ended. Morrison finished with only 163 career NBA appearances.
Greg Oden
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In complete honesty, it almost feels wrong to mention Greg Oden because of his chronic knee issues.
The 2007 No. 1 overall pick averaged 9.4 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.4 blocks over an 82-game stretch from 2008-10, and his talent was apparent. Had he stayed healthy, perhaps that would have continued or even improved. Oden wasn't an ineffective player during his limited action.
Unfortunately, though, it was very limited. He missed three straight years because of knee injuries and was waived by the Portland Trail Blazers in 2012. After a hard-earned return, Oden joined the Miami Heat and played his last 23 regular-season games in 2013-14.
For Oden, the "bust" label nonetheless applies.
Hasheem Thabeet
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Over three seasons at Connecticut, Hasheem Thabeet blocked an absurd 4.2 shots per game. The 7'3" center was deservingly named Big East Defensive Player of the Year twice.
For many reasons, though, the NBA didn't work out.
The 2009 No. 2 pick had a shaky reputation in practice, and the NBA evolved at the perfectly wrong time. Traditional post players found themselves losing time to floor-spacing and defensively versatile bigs, and Thabeet didn't fit either of those roles.
Across portions of five seasons, he made 224 appearances with 2.2 points and 2.7 rebounds in 10.5 minutes per game.
Jan Vesely
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As a young pro overseas, Jan Vesely threw down ferocious dunks. That made him a highlight-reel favorite and complemented a profile that received comparisons to Andrei Kirilenko.
The problem, though, is dunks cannot define an offensive skill set. Vesely struggled away from the rim, and it showed after the Washington Wizards used the No. 6 pick of the 2011 draft on him. They wanted to build the future around the 6'11" forward with second-year guard John Wall, but Vesely didn't pan out.
In 141 games with the Wizards, he mustered 3.5 points per game and shot a disastrous 40.5 percent at the free-throw line. Vesely wrapped up his career with a 21-game stay in Denver.
Vesely has since enjoyed a great career with Fenerbahce in Turkey, winning EuroLeague MVP in 2019.
Jimmer Fredette
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Jimmer Fredette had infinite range at BYU. Regrettably, his perimeter excellence didn't carry him at the next level.
The No. 10 pick in the 2011 draft struggled as a primary ball-handler for the Sacramento Kings. The role poorly matched his skill set, but subpar defense plagued him, too. Fredette never improved enough defensively to warrant his offensive upside.
Not in the NBA, at least.
Fredette averaged 6.0 points in 241 NBA appearances but has since enjoyed a tremendous career overseas, winning league MVP in China and a championship in Greece.
Thomas Robinson
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The speed at which Sacramento moved on from Thomas Robinson is an adequate explanation of his NBA story. After picking him fifth in the 2012 draft, the Kings sent him to the Houston Rockets at the 2013 trade deadline.
Robinson never lasted two seasons at a single stop.
In his five-year career, the Kansas product suited up for Sacramento, Houston, Portland, the Philadelphia 76ers, Brooklyn Nets and the Lakers. Robinson had talent but played in the wrong era; he didn't have the shooting range to play power forward and lacked the defensive upside of modern centers.
Robinson averaged 4.9 points and 4.8 rebounds in 313 NBA games and began to play internationally in 2017.
Jahlil Okafor
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In fairness to Jahlil Okafor, he scored more points as a rookie than Tskitishvili, Oden, Thabeet and Vesely did in their entire NBA careers. However, that's a pretty low bar.
Selected third overall by Philadelphia in 2015, Okafor secured first-team All-Rookie honors but went downhill from there.
In his second year, Jah had a minutes restriction because of a knee injury and eventually lost his starting job. Because of mediocre shooting range and poor defense, he never won it back.
Okafor has since bounced from Brooklyn to the New Orleans Pelicans and Detroit Pistons, searching for a regular role.
