Ranking the Sneaky MLB Free-Agent Signings Who Could Blow Up on New Teams
An MLB free agent doesn't have to sign for nine figures and dominate the news cycle to make a major impact with his new team.
Trevor Bauer is absolutely going to make the Los Angeles Dodgers a better team, and George Springer could be a true game-changer for a Toronto Blue Jays squad on the rise. But it's just as important for teams to fill in the roster gaps with low-cost free agents who could provide significant value relative to their salaries.
Madison Bumgarner signed a five-year, $85 million contract last offseason, while Kevin Gausman settled for a one-year, $9 million deal after a disappointing 2019 campaign.
Gausman went on to out-pitch Bumgarner by a wide margin in 2020, and he parlayed that performance into an $18.9 million qualifying offer.
So who could be a sneaky good pickup this winter?
Ahead we've highlighted seven players to watch as potential offseason steals. Players are ranked based on their projected impact during the upcoming season.
Let's start with an overseas honorable mention.
Honorable Mention: 1B Justin Smoak, Yomiuri Giants
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Contract: One year, $6 million
While the market for defensively limited veteran sluggers has dried up stateside, there is still money to be had for players with that profile in the Japanese League or the Korean Baseball Organization.
Tyler Austin was among the notable players to make the leap last winter, and he went on to post a .929 OPS with 20 home runs in 72 games with the Yokohama BayStars.
The next overseas resurgence could come from Justin Smoak.
The 34-year-old hit just .176/.250/.361 with five home runs in 36 games during the shortened 2020 season, but he's not far removed from a 38-homer campaign and an All-Star selection with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2017.
He could be one of the most prolific power hitters in the Japanese League in 2021.
7. RP John Brebbia, San Francisco Giants
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Contract: One year, $800,000
Reliever John Brebbia had a quietly excellent three-year run with the St. Louis Cardinals.
- 2017: 50 G, 5 HLD, 2.44 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 8.9 K/9
- 2018: 45 G, 5 HLD, 3.20 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 10.7 K/9
- 2019: 66 G, 13 HLD, 3.59 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 10.8 K/9
However, he underwent Tommy John surgery last June and missed the entire 2020 season, and the Cardinals opted to non-tender him this winter.
He won't be ready for Opening Day but could prove well worth the wait once he does finally return to the mound.
San Francisco Giants general manager Scott Harris talked with John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle about each of the team's offseason additions in January, including Brebbia:
"I got a front-row seat to see what John Brebbia could do in the NL Central. He dominated over the last few years with the Cardinals in the back end of the bullpen before succumbing to Tommy John surgery in June of 2020. We found him suddenly available because of the injury. I should credit our medical staff, which did a great job investigating his rehab progression and concluded he's on track for a full recovery."
With no clear-cut closer in the San Francisco bullpen, Brebbia could even see some save opportunities after the All-Star break.
6. RP Keynan Middleton, Seattle Mariners
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Contract: One year, $800,000
As a rookie in 2017, Keynan Middleton posted a 3.86 ERA and 9.7 K/9 with three saves and 10 holds in 64 appearances, showcasing a 96.9 mph fastball and a wipeout slider. It looked like he might be the closer of the future for the Los Angeles Angels.
Unfortunately, injuries have limited him to 40 total appearances the past three seasons, and he was non-tendered by the Angels at the start of the offseason.
The Seattle Mariners scooped him up in December, and he is one of three newcomers projected for a spot in the Opening Day bullpen.
"Since I heard the Mariners were interested, I just knew this was a no-brainer for me," Middleton told reporters. "My family is so close, my daughters live down in Portland, so this is everything I wanted with an organization that is trending in the right direction. I'm really happy to be a part of it."
Rafael Montero is the presumptive closer in Seattle, but don't be surprised if Middleton pitches his way into a high-leverage role. With arbitration control through the 2023 season, he could be a long-term bullpen piece while the Mariners continue to build.
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5. LF Robbie Grossman, Detroit Tigers
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Contract: Two years, $10 million
One of the game's most productive fourth outfielders the past several seasons, Robbie Grossman more than held his own in an everyday role in 2020.
The 31-year-old hit .241/.344/.482 with 22 extra-base hits in 192 plate appearances, showcasing his usual stellar on-base ability with a 10.9 percent walk rate. Over eight MLB seasons, he has a .350 on-base percentage and 12.6 percent walk rate.
That was enough for him to secure a multiyear deal from a Detroit Tigers team on the rise.
"Robbie is a proven major league hitter and will bring consistent, competitive at-bats to our lineup," Tigers general manager Al Avila told reporters last month. "His name quickly came up when our front office began planning potential offseason additions, and all of us are looking forward to having his veteran presence both on the field and in the clubhouse."
The Tigers have a wealth of exciting young pitching talent and some quality infield prospects, but they are lacking in long-term outfield pieces beyond Riley Greene. Grossman plugs a glaring hole and should make an impact beyond his on-field contributions.
4. SP Mike Foltynewicz, Texas Rangers
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Contract: One year, $2 million
Mike Foltynewicz was a rising star in 2018 when he went 13-10 with a 2.85 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 202 strikeouts in 183 innings to finish eighth in NL Cy Young voting.
He struggled early in 2019 and was eventually demoted to the minors for July, but he returned in August to post a 2.65 ERA over his final 10 starts.
The 29-year-old made just one start this past season after beginning the year on the injured list, allowing four hits, four walks and six earned runs in 3.1 innings. He was designated for assignment following that rocky outing, cleared waivers and was outrighted off the 40-man roster and assigned to the team's alternate site.
He entered minor league free agency to begin the offseason and eventually threw for scouts during a showcase in Atlanta, reportedly sitting 90-92 mph with his fastball and showing up in good physical shape, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.
Between his stellar 2018 numbers and his strong finish to the 2019 season, he was well worth a $2 million roll of the dice by a Texas Rangers team that is in the early stages of a rebuild.
3. CF Michael Taylor, Kansas City Royals
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Contract: One year, $1.75 million
Michael Taylor ranked No. 34 on the Baseball America Top 100 prospect list prior to the 2015 season after hitting .304/.390/.526 with 20 doubles, 23 home runs and 37 steals in the upper levels of the minors.
Despite some intriguing flashes of potential over the years, including a 2.8 WAR season in 2017 when he hit .271/.320/.486 with 19 home runs and 17 steals in 118 games, things have never quite clicked, and he was non-tendered by the Washington Nationals this offseason.
The rebuilding Kansas City Royals took a flier on a one-year deal, and he'll get every opportunity to win the starting center field job this spring.
"I think there is still some untapped potential there," Royals general manager Dayton Moore told reporters after the team signed Taylor in late November. "I think he'd be the first to tell you he hasn't been as consistent as he'd like. But he’s been a part of championship teams. He has speed and power."
His 31.1 percent strikeout rate the past two seasons will need to improve if he's going to turn a corner, but a change of scenery and more consistent playing time could be just what he needs to thrive.
2. SP Drew Smyly, Atlanta Braves
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Contract: One year, $11 million
Overshadowed by a terrific season from Kevin Gausman that earned Gausman a qualifying offer, left-hander Drew Smyly also had an excellent 2020 with the San Francisco Giants after signing a one-year, $4 million deal.
The 31-year-old missed time with a finger injury last season but finished with a rock-solid 3.42 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 26.1 innings.
A staggering 42-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in that limited workload is no doubt what caught the attention of the Atlanta Braves, who made him one of the first big free-agent signings of the offseason Nov. 16 with a one-year, $11 million contract.
"This is an upside play, no doubt about it," Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos told reporters. "We'll obviously find out eight months from now, 10 months from now how that worked out. But we think Drew has tremendous upside. We think he’s only starting to scratch the surface."
If he can stay healthy and show the same swing-and-miss stuff he did in 2020, Smyly could give the Braves what they thought they were getting in Cole Hamels last offseason.
1. RF Hunter Renfroe, Boston Red Sox
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Contract: One year, $3.1 million
After a 33-homer, 2.7 WAR season in 2019, Hunter Renfroe never quite found his footing with the Tampa Bay Rays following a multi-player trade that sent Tommy Pham and Jake Cronenworth to the San Diego Padres.
The burly 29-year-old slugger provides value beyond just his over-the-fence power as a standout defensive outfielder who has tallied 24 DRS and 30 outfield assists in his career.
It's not out of the question to think he could outperform the significantly more expensive Kyle Schwarber ($10M) and Joc Pederson ($7M) during the upcoming season.
"He's a very well-rounded player," Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters. "The power is obvious, and that's been kind of his main calling card throughout his career. But he's more than a one-trick pony. He's an athlete. He’s a really good defensive outfielder so he should be able to contribute on both sides of the ball. His offensive game is really made for Fenway Park."
Hitting in the bottom half of a talented Boston lineup, he looks like a prime candidate for a bounce-back season and could make a significant impact relative to his salary.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.
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