Way-Too-Early Predictions for Top MLB Stars Available in 2021-22 Free Agency
It's way, way, way, way, WAY too early to start thinking about Major League Baseball's free-agent class for the 2021-22 offseason, much less to make any predictions for the top available stars.
But we did it anyway.
Next winter's class of free agents is going to be a doozy. It will feature four starting pitchers on track for the Hall of Fame, plus another with perhaps the best arm in the game. There will also be three of baseball's best first basemen, an underrated right fielder, an MVP-winning third baseman and five (yes, five) elite shortstops.
We gazed into our crystal ball in hopes of finding out where these 15 players will end up signing between the conclusion of the 2021 season and the start of the 2022 season. But since all that appeared in it was the shrugging emoji, we had to do resort to using our imagination.
Let's get to it.
SP Zack Greinke: Toronto Blue Jays
1 of 15
Age: 37
Career Stats: 500 G, 459 GS, 2,939 IP, 2,689 K, 676 BB, 298 HR, 125 ERA+
Career WAR: 67.1
Maybe Zack Greinke will hang up his spikes after serving out the final season of his six-year, $206.5 million contract in 2021.
He'll have more than $300 million throughout his career, so he won't need the money. The six-time All-Star and 2009 American League Cy Young Award winner also doesn't necessarily need to pad his resume, as it's already arguably good enough for Cooperstown.
One thing Greinke has yet to do, however, is win a World Series ring. If he still doesn't have one upon the conclusion of this season, that could make him a candidate to sign at least a one-year deal with a championship contender.
A reunion with the Los Angeles Dodgers would be an intriguing possibility, but Greinke might field more interest from clubs that don't mind his declining velocity. The Toronto Blue Jays fit that bill, and they have the talent base (and likely the budget) to lure Greinke north of the border.
SP Justin Verlander: Washington Nationals
2 of 15
Age: 37
Career Stats: 454 G, 454 GS, 2,988 IP, 3,013 K, 851 BB, 310 HR, 129 ERA+
Career WAR: 72.3
Speaking of veteran aces with nothing left to prove, Justin Verlander could retire right now with full confidence that he would be a first-ballot Hall of Famer in five years.
Throughout his 16-year career, he's made eight All-Star squads, won two Cy Young Awards and was named the AL MVP back in 2011. He also won an elusive World Series ring with the Astros in 2017.
Of course, Verlander isn't going to retire right now. He's currently working his way back from the Tommy John operation that he underwent in September, which he hopes will "ultimately lengthen" his career.
Because Verlander figures to be fully recovered by the time the 2022 season opens, teams will surely line up for him next winter. If they need a replacement for Max Scherzer—stay tuned—the Washington Nationals could have a leg up by way of their contention chances and their proximity to Verlander's native Virginia.
SP Max Scherzer: St. Louis Cardinals
3 of 15
Age: 36
Career Stats: 377 G, 368 GS, 2,357.1 IP, 2,784 K, 641 BB, 264 HR, 132 ERA+
Career WAR: 60.6
Even if he boasts less career WAR, Max Scherzer is just as of a good a bet for Cooperstown as Greinke and Verlander. After all, only he and nine others have won at least three Cy Young Awards.
Plus, Scherzer has no real cause to call it a career any time soon. He's still a sturdy ace with top-notch stuff, as he proved by averaging 94.7 mph on his fastball last season.
Because they've gotten all they could have asked for out of his seven-year, $210 million contract, the Nationals will likely try to retain Scherzer after 2021. If anything, they might preemptively extend him.
But in the event that Scherzer does reach free agency, the St. Louis Cardinals will be a threat to steal him. They could offer the St. Louis native a homecoming opportunity, plus plenty of money after waving goodbye to Dexter Fowler, Andrew Miller and Matt Carpenter, whose $18.5 million option for 2022 likely won't vest.
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SP Clayton Kershaw: Los Angeles Dodgers
4 of 15
Age: 32
Career Stats: 357 G, 354 GS, 2,333 IP, 2,526 K, 585 BB, 181 HR, 158 ERA+
Career WAR: 67.0
Between his three Cy Young Awards, his MVP, his eight All-Star selections and his numerous statistical accolades, Clayton Kershaw already had a Cooperstown-caliber resume even before 2020.
Now he has all that and the World Series ring that he finally won last season. And he earned it as he exorcised his postseason demons by limiting the Tampa Bay Rays to just three runs in two starts to help lead the Dodgers to their first championship since 1988.
Upon the completion of his three-year, $93 million contract in 2021, Kershaw might feel compelled to pitch closer to his home outside of his native Dallas. But that would require the Texas Rangers to have interest, which is unlikely given that they're currently in a rebuild.
Besides, it's far more likely that the Dodgers and Kershaw simply won't want to part ways with one another. Even if he has to take a pay cut from his $31 million salary, the two sides will presumably figure something out.
SP Noah Syndergaard: Los Angeles Angels
5 of 15
Age: 28
Career Stats: 119 G, 118 GS, 716 IP, 775 K, 166 BB, 63 HR, 119 ERA+
Career WAR: 14.5
Noah Syndergaard missed last season recovering from Tommy John surgery, and he wasn't especially good the last time he did pitch. He finished 2019 with a subpar 96 ERA+.
Yet the idea of Syndergaard remains tantalizing. He's averaged 97.6 mph on his fastball throughout his career, and at his peak, he was an All-Star and a down-ballot Cy Young Award contender in 2016.
As long as his return to the mound goes well, Syndergaard's relative youth and huge upside will attract many interested parties next winter. Knowing just how deep new owner Steve Cohen's pockets go, the New York Mets will be a leading candidate to sign him.
But just as he did while he was working for the Blue Jays in 2010, Los Angeles Angels general manager Perry Minasian could have Syndergaard atop his wish list. He'll also have the money to attract him to Anaheim, as Albert Pujols and many more players will be off the club's books after 2021.
1B Anthony Rizzo: Miami Marlins
6 of 15
Age: 31
Career Stats: 1,265 G, 5,416 PA, 229 HR, 60 SB, .271 AVG, .372 OBP, .485 SLG, 129 OPS+
Career WAR: 34.5
Anthony Rizzo has spent nine of his 10 seasons in the majors with the Chicago Cubs, and it has been a fruitful partnership.
However, the final year of three-time All-Star's contract is coinciding with somewhat of a rebuild in Chicago. Once Rizzo and fellow stars Kris Bryant and Javier Baez hit the open market after 2021, the Cubs figure to dive even deeper into rebuilding.
That would leave Rizzo to seek opportunities elsewhere, but he won't necessarily be the top first baseman on the market if he doesn't recover from last year's 103 OPS+. That could put him in a situation where he'll have to gamble on a team that wants to take a chance on him.
For instance, the Miami Marlins could value Rizzo as a much-needed veteran presence for their predominantly young yet exciting roster. It can't hurt that Rizzo is a Miami native who has a house in Fort Lauderdale.
1B Brandon Belt: Houston Astros
7 of 15
Age: 32
Career Stats: 1,135 G, 4,400 PA, 138 HR, 43 SB, .263 AVG, .356 OBP, .453 SLG, 122 OPS+
Career WAR: 25.1
Though Brandon Belt has been around for 10 seasons, the San Francisco Giants may only now be seeing him at his best.
Following his All-Star nod in 2016, Belt's numbers steadily declined over the next three seasons. But thanks to a healthy knee and a revamped approach, he exploded for a .309/.425/.591 batting line last season.
Due to his familiarity with the Giants and the absurd amount of money they have coming off their books after 2021, Belt may decide to stick around in San Francisco next winter. But if the Astros come calling, they might tempt him to leave town.
They're going to have an opening at first base if they decline Yuli Gurriel's option for 2022, which seems likely after his numbers cratered in 2020. Belt, who went to high school in nearby Lufkin, could fill that opening and look forward to boosting his long-suppressed power numbers at Minute Maid Park.
1B Freddie Freeman: San Francisco Giants
8 of 15
Age: 31
Career Stats: 1,406 G, 5,965 PA, 240 HR, 45 SB, .295 AVG, .383 OBP, .509 SLG, 139 OPS+
Career WAR: 38.8
Following his rough introduction to the majors in 2010, Freddie Freeman established himself as one of the best first baseman in the business over the next nine seasons.
Now, he gets our vote as the best. Atlanta's man at the cold corner was red-hot throughout 2020, ultimately winning the NL MVP on the strength of a .341/.462/.640 batting line.
With his eight-year, $135 million contract coming to an end in 2021, Freeman is open to signing an extension with Atlanta. But because his first deal is already the largest in the franchise's history, Atlanta might have a hard time meeting Freeman's asking price while his value is sky high.
Freeman will have a better shot at an appropriate payday on the open market next winter, wherein high-payroll clubs like the Angels and Giants figure to be in the market for a first baseman. The latter, in particular, could like him—and will indeed be able to afford him—as a replacement for Belt.
RF Michael Conforto: Chicago White Sox
9 of 15
Age: 27
Career Stats: 632 G, 2,501 PA, 118 HR, 17 SB, .259 AVG, .358 OBP, .484 SLG, 128 OPS+
Career WAR: 14.6
Only 16 players have at least a 130 OPS+ and 95 home runs since 2017. Michael Conforto is one of them.
What's more, he might only be getting better. Albeit in a much smaller sample size than usual, last season proved to be the finest of his career as he went off for a .322/.412/.515 batting line and a 156 OPS+.
The Mets are bound to make a spirited attempt to retain Conforto next winter, but they're going to have their hands full trying to re-sign Syndergaard and especially Francisco Lindor. That could create an opening for Conforto to be swiped by a team in need of his left-handed thump.
That could be the Chicago White Sox. They got modest production from the left side of the plate in 2020, and Adam Eaton doesn't figure to move that needle much in 2021. If so, they might pitch Conforto on the idea of completing a lineup that already features humongous firepower on the right side.
3B Kris Bryant: Washington Nationals
10 of 15
Age: 29
Career Stats: 740 G, 3,252 PA, 142 HR, 34 SB, .280 AVG, .380 OBP, .508 SLG, 134 OPS+
Career WAR: 24.3
Kris Bryant hit bottom in 2020. An oblique injury limited him to only 34 games, and his production cratered to a 73 OPS+ and 0.4 WAR.
Because Bryant also struggled through a bum shoulder in 2018, that makes it two injury-marred seasons out of the last three for him. He thus has a lot riding on the 2021 campaign.
We'll put on our optimism hat and assume that improved health will allow the 2016 National League MVP to resemble the player he's been in his other four major league seasons. As in, a good bet for 30-odd home runs and an OPS starting with a nine.
For reasons referenced earlier, Bryant is as good as gone from Chicago after 2021. The complicated part of his free agency will be a relative shortage of teams in need of a third baseman, but the Nationals figure to be an exception. As it is, Bryant has already been on their radar (see here and here) as a trade target.
SS Carlos Correa: Baltimore Orioles
11 of 15
Age: 26
Career Stats: 604 G, 2,583 PA, 107 HR, 33 SB, .276 AVG, .353 OBP, .480 SLG, 126 OPS+
Career WAR: 26.3
Carlos Correa has had an odd career.
He was the AL Rookie of the Year in 2015 and an All-Star in 2017, and he had a 137 OPS+ as recently as 2019. Yet he also missed chunks of 2017, 2018 and 2019 with injuries, and the 92 OPS+ that he posted in 2020 is emblematic of his offensive inconsistency.
Of course, Correa will be a highly sought-after free agent next winter no matter what. Perhaps he won't be the best of the market's five elite shortstops, but he'll at least attract on-the-cusp teams looking to make a play on his considerable upside.
The Baltimore Orioles could be one of them. Their rebuild has progressed to a point where they could be ready to invest big in free agency by next winter. Their front office happens to be run by Mike Elias, who was largely responsible for the Astros picking Correa No. 1 overall back in 2012.
SS Javier Baez: Miami Marlins
12 of 15
Age: 28
Career Stats: 724 G, 2,708 PA, 118 HR, 63 SB, .264 AVG, .304 OBP, .473 SLG, 102 OPS+
Career WAR: 17.7
Javier Baez had an awful season for the Cubs in 2020, posting just a 59 OPS+ and 0.9 WAR. To hear him say it, not being able to play in front of fans was a factor.
The good news for Baez is that, albeit in a limited capacity, fans will be returning to the stands in 2021. That could guide his performance back to the levels he enjoyed in 2018 and 2019, when he mustered a 122 OPS+ to go with stellar defense.
Because of his up-and-down track record, Baez could nonetheless have a market similar to that of Correa. In that, he might appeal most strongly to up-and-coming clubs looking to make an aggressive play.
For instance, the Marlins. They should indeed be able to afford both Baez and Rizzo, and their pitch to the former could also emphasize the team's proximity to his native Puerto Rico and how well he would fit with the organization's rebrand as an institution worthy of Miami.
SS Trevor Story: Los Angeles Angels
13 of 15
Age: 28
Career Stats: 603 G, 2,541 PA, 134 HR, 80 SB, .277 AVG, .343 OBP, .535 SLG, 114 OPS+
Career WAR: 21.0
Trevor Story is pretty well cemented as one of baseball's top shortstops, as he owns more WAR than all but two other players at the position since 2016.
Following the club's trade of superstar third baseman Nolan Arenado, right now the question is how much longer Story will stick with the Colorado Rockies. Though they expect him to still be with them come Opening Day, the odds of him eventually leaving via trade or free agency are very high.
As a free agent, perhaps the only knock against Story will be his iffy performance away from Coors Field. All the same, win-now teams will be lining up with nine-figure offers.
Of the bunch, none may be more desperate than the Angels if 2021 proves to be yet another wasted year of Mike Trout's prime. Even if they sign Syndergaard first, they might still have enough capital to sign Story and chase a championship with him, Trout and Anthony Rendon in the heart of their lineup.
SS Corey Seager: San Francisco Giants
14 of 15
Age: 26
Career Stats: 541 G, 2,301 PA, 88 HR, 11 SB, .295 AVG, .362 OBP, .500 SLG, 129 OPS+
Career WAR: 17.8
Corey Seager took his place among the best players in baseball in 2016 and 2017, making the NL All-Star team both years and racking up 10.5 WAR.
Injuries subsequently held Seager back in 2018 and 2019, but not in 2020. He roared back to life with a 152 OPS+, not to mention an expected batting average and expected slugging percentage were both in the 99th percentile.
Between his 6'4", 215-pound frame and his slipping metrics, the big question going forward is whether Seager will eventually have to move off shortstop. That could affect his market, in that his top suitors will be teams that have money to spend and the means to shift him to third base.
Thus could the Giants emerge as a leading suitor for Seager. They're not only run by former Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi, but they'll soon have need of a veteran shortstop—Brandon Crawford is yet another pending free agent—who could keep the position warm for top prospect Marco Luciano.
SS Francisco Lindor: New York Mets
15 of 15
Age: 27
Career Stats: 777 G, 3,510 PA, 138 HR, 99 SB, .285 AVG, .346 OBP, .488 SLG, 117 OPS+
Career WAR: 28.7
Whether it was primarily because he also hated playing without fans or because he was distracted by his contract status, Francisco Lindor had a bad year in 2020. He managed just a 102 OPS+ and 1.1 WAR.
Even despite that, Lindor still leads all shortstops in WAR dating back to his rookie season with Cleveland in 2015. His credentials are further bolstered by his four All-Star nods and two Gold Gloves.
So barring another down year in 2021, Lindor is positioned to be the most desirable of the five elite shortstops on next winter's market. He could be in line for Manny Machado money—i.e., $300 million—and therefore within reach of only a select few teams.
Though clubs like the Angels, Dodgers and Giants might go after Lindor, it's frankly hard to imagine the Mets letting him get away. By re-signing Lindor, Cohen would simultaneously boost his club's World Series chances and earn long-lasting goodwill among Mets fans.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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