Ranking Trevor Bauer's Final Free-Agent Options and Predicting Contract Terms
With clubs across Major League Baseball set to report for spring training in February, the free-agent sweepstakes for ace hurler Trevor Bauer may be nearing a conclusion.
So, we thought we'd break down his remaining suitors and offer a fresh prediction for his contract.
There seems to be a final four in the race for Bauer. We've ranked these clubs based on how much sense a deal would make for both the team and the man himself, who's fresh off winning the National League Cy Young Award in 2020 on the strength of an NL-best 1.73 ERA.
But before we get to that, we must consider what the 30-year-old is looking for in free agency.
What Bauer Wants
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Few (if any) players in MLB have more to say than Bauer, so it's little wonder that he's offered an unusually transparent window into his free agency.
For instance, Bauer recently posted a video to YouTube in which he broke down exactly what matters to him as he seeks a new home after he spent his first nine seasons with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Cleveland and the Cincinnati Reds. The key takeaways include:
- Neither geography nor market size is especially important to him
- He wants a "partnership" with the team, specifically regarding his training methods and brand-building ventures
- He wants his new team to at least be willing to consider using him every fourth day, in lieu of every fifth day
- He wants to be happy
- He wants to win
- He wants to be fairly compensated
Regarding compensation, Bauer shot down a report that he's seeking a five- or six-year deal for between $36 and $40 million per year. Yet it's hard to imagine him settling for much less, as the general consensus—see MLB Trade Rumors and MLB Network's Jon Heyman—is that he's worth at least $30 million per year.
4. New York Mets
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In November, Bauer expressed admiration for how Steve Cohen had begun his reign as the owner of the New York Mets. Now the club has an offer out to him, according to Andy Martino of SNY.
After retaining Marcus Stroman and adding Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, James McCann and Trevor May, the Mets are projected by FanGraphs to produce the third-most WAR of any NL team in 2021.
They would only get stronger if they added Bauer, who would pair with two-time Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom atop the club's rotation. And while market size may not be a priority, playing in New York wouldn't exactly hinder his efforts to build his brand.
But with their luxury-tax payroll projected at $183.8 million for 2021, the Mets are less than $30 million away from running afoul of the $210 million threshold for penalties. Cohen has expressed reluctance about that, so it's fair to wonder if his offer (which is reportedly weeks old) is of the low-ball variety.
The Mets are also in an awkward spot after dismissing general manager Jared Porter when a report that he harassed a female reporter surfaced. They don't plan on hiring a new GM until after the 2021 season, which could complicate Bauer's efforts to forge a consistent relationship with the club's front office.
3. Toronto Blue Jays
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According to The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal, the Toronto Blue Jays are "believed" to be in the mix for Bauer.
Given that Bauer himself teased an upcoming call with the Blue Jays on New Year's Eve, this isn't exactly news. It could also be to his advantage that Toronto's front office is captained by president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins, who know Bauer well from their time with Cleveland.
The Blue Jays would also seem to have room for Bauer even after signing George Springer to a six-year, $150 million contract. To wit, their $115 million projected payroll for 2021 is well south of the club's peak of $163.4 million from 2017.
If Toronto were to sign Bauer, he would slot alongside fellow ace Hyun Jin Ryu in the club's rotation. The two would pitch in support one of the youngest, most exciting lineups in baseball, potentially paving the club's way back to the World Series for the first time since 1993.
Yet it's noteworthy that Bauer didn't break out with Cleveland until after Shapiro and Atkins left town in 2015. Those two also shortened the leash for Toronto's starters in 2020, as they averaged only 4.3 innings per game. Such things might give Bauer pause about heading north of the border.
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2. Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Los Angeles Dodgers are "monitoring" the market for Bauer, according to ESPN's Jeff Passan. Heyman has heard the same thing and reports that Bauer would "love" to play in Southern California despite the pitcher's purported disinterest in geography.
This is perhaps uncoincidental, given that Bauer is a SoCal native who went to high school in Santa Clarita and played college ball at UCLA. He might also see signing with the Dodgers as the ultimate win-win, as they more than anyone else can fulfill his desire to, well, win.
The Dodgers are, after all, coming off their eighth straight NL West title and their first World Series championship since 1988. Their success has been buoyed by a veritable machine of player development and analytical ingenuity.
Notably, the latter has cultivated a fondness for the kind of high-spin fastballs that Bauer is known for. The Dodgers have also displayed a willingness to get creative with how they use pitchers, so Bauer might actually have a shot at selling them on his every-fourth-day initiative.
The catch, though, is that the Dodgers have yet to do a nine-figure deal in free agency under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman. If they hold to that pattern with Bauer, he might have to settle for less to pitch for them.
1. Los Angeles Angels
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Even after signing Jose Quintana, Los Angeles Angels GM Perry Minasian has said he's "very active" on the starting pitching front.
To this end, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com hears that the Angels are one of the teams believed to have "the best shot" at Bauer. Like the Dodgers, they can offer him a homecoming opportunity. And unlike the Dodgers, the Angels haven't shied from nine-figure deals in free agency under owner Arte Moreno.
Of course, the Angels haven't done much winning of late. They're riding a string of five straight losing seasons, and their last postseason win was all the way back in 2009.
And yet, the Angels project as a top-10 team for 2021. That naturally has much to do with the superstar duo of Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon, but not to be overlooked is the sheer depth that their rotation has under 2020 breakout star Dylan Bundy.
Obviously, signing Bauer would make the Angels deeper. And because Minasian, who's only been on the job since November, is "open to everything" that might make the Angels better, he could be as receptive as anyone to Bauer's ideas for how he should be deployed.
Best Guess: Angels for 5 Years, $160 Million
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It's only fair that we stick with the Angels as Bauer's top destination, but that doesn't make it any easier to predict the terms of his eventual agreement.
To his Bauer's credit, Feinsand made a compelling argument in favor of his matching Stephen Strasburg's and Gerrit Cole's average annual values of $35 and $36 million, respectively. However, money like that probably isn't available in the wake of a pandemic-shortened 2020 season that reportedly cost teams roughly $3 billion.
Then there's the matter of Bauer's red flags. Both his 2020 season and his 2018 campaign—in which he had a 2.21 ERA for Cleveland—are evidence that his upside goes as high as any pitcher's. Yet his other seven seasons have yielded a modest 4.39 ERA, which points to his potential downside as a mere mid-rotation starter.
But knowing that he's thrown more innings since 2014 than all but eight other pitchers, Bauer is nothing if not durable. He's also clearly trending up, as his excellence in 2020 was underscored by league-best expected metrics like his 2.17 xERA and .219 xwOBA.
So, we'll guess that Bauer will surpass Springer's total with a higher average annual value by way of a shorter commitment. Thus: five years and $160 million.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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