Ranking the NFL's Head Coach Openings Entering 2021 Offseason

When the Philadelphia Eagles decided to move on from head coach Doug Pederson, it left the NFL with seven head coaching vacancies. A few have already been filled. The Jacksonville Jaguars hired Urban Meyer, the Atlanta Falcons hired Arthur Smith, the New York Jets hired Robert Saleh and the Los Angeles Chargers hired Brandon Staley.

The Detroit Lions are also expected to hire Dan Campbell, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.

However, it's still worth taking a few moments to analyze how all seven jobs stack up heading into the offseason, and that's exactly what we're going to do here.

Taking into account factors like overall roster talent, roster age, projected 2021 cap space and draft capital, we'll rank the seven jobs in terms of attractiveness.

There will be some subjectivity here as a coach's opinion of a roster could differ greatly from the general perception. However, we'll try to peer through the lens of a coach looking at a two- to three-year window—a reasonable expectation for job security—and determine which job seems best right now.

7. Houston Texans

Eric Christian Smith/Associated Press

Thanks largely to the efforts of former head coach/general manager Bill O'Brien, the Houston Texans have one of the least attractive openings in professional sports. They boast a roster that went 4-12 this season, they don't have first- or second-round selections in the coming draft, and they are projected to be more than $20 million over the salary cap.

Turning this franchise around is going to take time, and it may require tearing down the roster further first. That's not an ideal position for a new head coach.

If we were still in the middle of the regular season, the presence of Pro Bowl quarterback Deshaun Watson might be a selling point. He's a true franchise signal-caller, and those are few and far between. However, there's no guarantee an incoming head coach is going to inherit the 25-year-old gunslinger.

Watson is reportedly unhappy with the state of the organization and may try to force a trade in the coming days.

"He just wants out," a source close to him said, per Greg Bishop and Jenny Vrentas of SI.com, and his dissatisfaction with the franchise may be growing.

"I was on 2 then I took it to 10," he tweeted.

If Watson isn't going to be part of the equation, then there's little reason to want this job—other than, you know, the chance to be an NFL head coach. If the Texans can smooth things over with their quarterback, then it's a different story.

Right now, though, this is the least attractive job in the NFL.

6. Philadelphia Eagles

Derik Hamilton/Associated Press

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz may not try to force his way out, at least not now that Doug Pederson has been fired.

"Doug Pederson firing significantly increases chances of Carson Wentz staying in Philadelphia, a source told ESPN," ESPN's Jeremy Fowler tweeted. "Became clear keeping both would be difficult. Eagles could always gauge market or adjust with new coach but relationship appears salvageable."

Let's be honest, though.

It's not as if the Eagles' quarterback situation is solid. Wentz was awful in 2020, throwing for 2,620 yards with 16 touchdowns and a league-leading 15 interceptions. He was eventually replaced by rookie second-round pick Jalen Hurts. The potential for an ongoing quarterback controversy is real.

It would be one thing if quarterback were the only issue in Philadelphia, but it isn't. This is a team that won just four games in 2020 and went 2-4 in the pitiful NFC East. There are a few good players on the roster like running back Miles Sanders, tight end Dallas Goedert and defensive lineman Brandon Graham, but a large chunk may be jettisoned in the offseason.

Philadelphia is projected to be a whopping $63 million over the salary cap this offseason. It does own the sixth overall pick in the 2021 draft, though, so there's that.

Also on the bright side, the Eagles are just a year removed from a playoff appearance. If a coach believes it's possible to fix Wentz, that could make the perceived turnaround time quicker. 

But given the dire cap situation, it's more likely the Eagles are headed to a rebuild than a resurgence.

5. Atlanta Falcons

Jason Behnken/Associated Press

Arthur Smith inherits an intriguing situation with the Atlanta Falcons.

On one hand, they have core pieces like quarterback Matt Ryan, wideout Julio Jones, receiver Calvin Ridley and tight end Hayden Hurst in place. On the other hand, they have a defense that ranked 29th overall and are projected to be more than $32 million over the cap this offseason.

Perhaps more importantly, though, the Falcons could be headed toward a complete overhaul.

Ryan is 35 years old and still playing at a high level. Jones is 31 but struggled to stay healthy in 2020. One or both could be gone in the not-too-distant future. Team president Rich McKay admitted the next general manager will have the freedom to move either or both this offseason if it makes sense to do so.

"Give us a plan," McKay said, per Jeff Schultz and Tori McElhaney of The Athletic. "Show us what you want to do and show us why. Show us how this gets us to Ws and make sure you actually execute the plan."

According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, New Orleans Saints assistant general manager Terry Fontenot is the front-runner to be the next general manager in Atlanta. It could be up to him, not Smith, to determine how long Ryan and Jones are centerpieces.

Even if both are back in 2021, Smith will likely be tasked with orchestrating a rebuild within the next couple of years. The Falcons own the fourth overall pick in the draft, but their cap situation will make it difficult to get a jump-start on the transition this offseason.

As the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars showed this year, coaches who oversee the tear-down process don't always stay employed to see brighter days.

4. Detroit Lions

Duane Burleson/Associated Press

Like the Atlanta Falcons, the Detroit Lions have a franchise quarterback in place—at least for the time being. Matthew Stafford is under contract for two more seasons and is just 32 years old. If a coach believes in him, Stafford could remain the franchise quarterback for the foreseeable future.

He's arguably the biggest asset the Lions have to offer, though he isn't the only one. Detroit also possesses the seventh pick in the 2021 draft and is at least projected to be under the salary cap this offseason.

The Lions have a reasonable chance to bolster their roster quickly.

However, Detroit has a roster that won just five games in 2020, and it is in dire need of a defensive turnaround after ranking last in both yards and points allowed. Having a franchise quarterback in place is great, but it will be a challenge to build a complete team around him.

The other issue is that Detroit resides in a competitive division. The Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears were both playoff teams in 2020, and the Minnesota Vikings won seven games. Some coaches may welcome the challenge, but winning in the NFC North isn't going to be easy over the next couple of years.

We're ignoring the fact that the Lions have a longstanding lack of success (the Cleveland Browns turned it around this year, right?), though potential coaching hires may not do the same.

3. New York Jets

Jennifer Stewart/Associated Press

On the surface, Robert Saleh isn't walking into the most alluring of coaching gigs. He's taking over a roster that won just two games in 2020 and has a plethora of questions at key positions.

The New York Jets lack a No. 1 wide receiver, a premier pass-rusher, a workhorse running back and a standout offensive line aside from rookie tackle Mekhi Becton.

The Jets may or may not have a starting-caliber quarterback in Sam Darnold. Moreover, Saleh must search for answers while under the scrutiny of the New York media.

However, he is also inheriting a ton of options for the immediate future, and that's huge. The Jets will have the second and 23rd picks in the 2021 draft and are projected to have more than $75 million in salary-cap space.

Saleh should have freedom to forge a roster of his liking over the next couple of offseasons. That's a major selling point, and it could lead to a quick turnaround in New York.

The Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals have proved in recent years that quick turnarounds are possible. Tearing down a roster can be a struggle, but the Jets are already past that point in the process. Saleh joins the franchise just in time to oversee the "building" portion of the rebuild.

Plus, he will have the benefit of low expectations early on. If he manages to win eight games in 2021, it will largely be viewed as a victory.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Urban Meyer seems to believe he has found an ideal situation with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

"I felt like this was not only the right time for me to return to coaching, but the right place in Jacksonville, as well. Duval is a very special place to me, and I'm excited to be back in the great state of Florida," he said during his introductory press conference.

It's not difficult to see why Meyer was intrigued by the Jacksonville job.

At first blush, the biggest selling point is the fact that the Jaguars own the first overall pick in the 2021 draft. That likely means Meyer will start out his NFL coaching career with Clemson standout and presumed top pick Trevor Lawrence at quarterback.

However, the Jaguars have more to offer than just Lawrence. They have several talented young players on the roster, including James Robinson, DJ Chark Jr., Laviska Shenault Jr., CJ Henderson and K'Lavon Chaisson. With a few additional pieces, this could be a competitive team.

And the Jaguars have the ammunition to add those pieces in the offseason. Few teams are projected to have more than the nearly $72 million in cap space they will possess.

One could argue the Jaguars are in a better position now than the Cincinnati Bengals were last offseason before they drafted quarterback Joe Burrow. If Lawrence turns out to be the pro quarterback many believe he can be, Meyer could have Jacksonville in playoff contention within his first few seasons.

1. Los Angeles Chargers

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

The Los Angeles Chargers job should be the most attractive opening since they offer the best of multiple worlds.

For starters, Los Angeles appears to have found its franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert. While the Oregon product has only 15 pro starts under his belt, he was nothing short of phenomenal during his rookie campaign. He threw for 4,336 yards with a rookie-record 31 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions, and he also rushed for 234 yards and five more scores.

Additionally, Los Angeles has several high-end players littered throughout its roster, ranging from Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen to Joey Bosa and Derwin James.

The Chargers are also in prime position to upgrade their roster further in the offseason. They own the 13th overall pick in the draft and are projected to have more than $22 million in cap space.

As we've previously discussed, having a franchise quarterback in place is a big asset. So is having the cap capital and financial flexibility to mold a roster into a coach's desired form.

The newly hired Brandon Staley will win on both fronts.

Cap and contract information via Spotrac.