Frank Reich: Analytics Supported Colts' Decision to Skip Kicking FG vs. Bills

Indianapolis Colts head coach Frank Reich defended his decision to go for it on fourth down inside the final two minutes of the first half rather than settling for a field goal from the 4-yard line.

"I think the analytics were a fairly strong go," Reich told reporters.

Some second-guessed Reich at the time, and forgoing the easy field goal looks bad in retrospect since the Colts lost to the Buffalo Bills 27-24.

As Reich correctly pointed out, though, the Bills started the next drive from inside their 5-yard line. He trusted his defense to keep Buffalo out of the end zone or field-goal range.

Unfortunately for the Colts, Josh Allen marched his offense down the field and helped give Buffalo a 14-10 lead with a five-yard touchdown run.

Questioning Reich's choice is more than fair, but it's far too simplistic to take points that might have been scored earlier in the game and add them to the final tally.

Coaches react in the moment based on how the game is unfolding. Had Rodrigo Blankenship lined up for a field goal in the second quarter, it would've altered the remainder of the afternoon.

In addition, you can't fault Reich too much for being aggressive in the first half while playing on the road against a higher seed.

This isn't even the first time he made this choice. While leading by four, the Colts had a 4th-and-1 from the Houston Texans' 5-yard line in the fourth quarter of their Week 13 matchup. Indianapolis went for it and didn't get it.

But the Texans' next drive ended in a safety as the Colts secured a 26-20 win.

The same thing played out in Week 10 against the Tennessee Titans. The Titans stopped the Colts on the 1-yard line to open the second half. Indianapolis' defense forced Tennessee to punt shortly thereafter and had a short field for its next possession.

Pointing to "analytics" as a catch-all term may not be all that helpful to Reich in his justification. He and coaches in a similar position should consider explaining in detail why going for the touchdown that close to the goal line can be the better bet than the conservative route.