Ranking the Most Likely MLB Contract Extension Candidates for 2021
Free agency has moved at a deliberate pace, to say the least.
Teams and players alike are essentially grasping at straws in setting the market and navigating financial challenges following a pandemic-shortened 2020 season. But while some of the top stars might remain unsigned for the better part of the next month (or longer), it is worth keeping an eye on potential extension talks.
Extensions have become rather vital as of late in terms of contenders' ability to lay the groundwork. Clubs like the Atlanta Braves and Chicago White Sox have bought out the arbitration years of their young stars and tacked on extra seasons so as to prolong the competitive window. Now, both franchises (also armed with strong farm systems) are in tremendous shape in terms of future outlook.
The following is a ranking of 10 players who could receive extensions this year, based on the likelihood of such a deal coming to pass. Multiple factors were considered, including any past talks between player and team, as well as the importance of a given player to his team's future.
Without further ado...
10. Dylan Bundy
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Los Angeles Angels right-hander Dylan Bundy is an intriguing extension candidate both because of the recency of his success and because of L.A.'s concerted rotation needs.
Bundy had an up-and-down tenure with the Baltimore Orioles and was often plagued by homer issues. He gave up 1.7 gophers per nine innings in five years with the team, ultimately posting a 4.67 ERA.
Still, Bundy's strikeout stuff made him a trade target, and the Angels snatched him up in exchange for four pitching prospects in December 2019. The Tulsa native promptly gave the Halos the best year of his career.
Bundy had a 3.29 ERA and 2.95 fielding independent pitching (FIP) mark in 11 starts last season. More importantly, he allowed just 0.7 homers per nine innings and also set a personal best in terms of walk rate. The homer rate does not appear to be much of an aberration, either, as he ranked in the 80th percentile for barrel rate.
Now, the Angels face a decision. Bundy will be a free agent after 2021 and might net a fairly substantial contract if he has another strong season. Meanwhile, Los Angeles needs all the pitching it can get.
Bundy only just turned 28 in November. He could be a legitimate anchor in L.A.'s rotation for years to come, which is why the Angels could look to extend him before he hits the open market.
9. Juan Soto
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On the one hand, the Washington Nationals are in no rush to extend Juan Soto. Simultaneously, they should do everything in their power to do just that.
Soto was among those to qualify for Super Two status, granting him an extra year of arbitration eligibility. The 22-year-old is projected to make $6.5 million this year, per Spotrac, and if the past three years are any indication, he is likely to be that much more expensive each and every year before hitting the open market after the 2024 season.
Washington has innumerable reasons to extend Soto. He has wasted little time becoming the face of the franchise, and just this past season led baseball in on-base percentage (.490), slugging percentage (.695), OPS (1.185) and OPS+ (212).
Plus, Soto was one of Washington's best hitters en route to the World Series in 2019. The youngster was the opposite of nervy, hitting .333 with three homers, seven RBI and a 1.178 OPS in the Fall Classic.
In essence, Soto is developing a reputation as a generational hitter. The Nats had a few players of somewhat similar ilk in the past in Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon, only for both to leave the franchise once they reached free agency. They cannot afford to make the same mistake with Soto, who might be even more prolific.
Whether Soto's camp is content signing a deal is another question entirely. Scott Boras represents the Santo Domingo native and usually prefers for his clients to reach free agency. The Nats also had a minor financial dispute last spring, resulting in the renewal of his contract.
Still, there is no reason the Nats should not at least broach the idea of an extension. Soto is the kind of player the team can build around for a decade-plus.
8. Corey Seager
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The Los Angeles Dodgers are not afraid to make aggressive extension offers to stars, as they showed with Mookie Betts. Whether they take the same approach with Corey Seager is a bit of a mystery, at least for now.
Seager is one of the shortstops who will be a free agent in the star-studded class of 2022. He is also coming off a year in which he hit .307 with 15 homers and a career-high .943 OPS before going absolutely scorched earth in October.
It might be a practical given for most clubs to extend a shortstop with an .863 career OPS, especially considering Seager is only entering his age-27 season in 2021. But the Dodgers present an intriguing case study.
Los Angeles has a wealth of infield talent, ranging from top prospects like Gavin Lux and Kody Hoese to 26-year-old Edwin Rios, who has 12 homers and a .972 OPS in 60 games at the big league level.
Plus, the Dodgers have shown interest in free-agent infielder DJ LeMahieu, per MLB Network's Jon Morosi, and Morosi previously reported L.A. was at least exploring a Nolan Arenado trade.
Prevailing wisdom would seem to suggest L.A. would look to re-sign Justin Turner and add a late-game bullpen arm or two, thereby allocating more funds for a Seager extension. However, the combination of infield talent in the pipeline and the apparent desire to make a splash clouds Seager's future a bit.
It is still entirely possible the Dodgers consider Seager an organizational fixture and look to extend him even if they land a star. But signing LeMahieu or acquiring Arenado could come at quite the cost and might make it a bit trickier to ink the shortstop for the long haul.
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7. Trea Turner
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Whereas the Nationals might not be in the biggest of hurries to extend Juan Soto, the same cannot necessarily be said for shortstop Trea Turner.
The 27-year-old will be a free agent in 2023 and is inarguably one of the best players in baseball. Yes, he has dealt with some injuries throughout his career, but he also ranks 20th in fWAR between 2018 and 2020 and is coming off the best year of his career.
Turner hit .335 with 12 homers, 12 stolen bases and a .982 OPS this past season. He led the majors in hits (78) while also leading the National League in triples (four), setting the tone at the top of Washington's lineup.
Turner is in the same category as Francisco Lindor and Trevor Story in terms of toolsy shortstops who can hit for average and power while also causing havoc on the bases and playing plus defense. He is the kind of talent teams usually salivate over at a premium position.
Again, the question here is whether the Nats and their star can come to terms on a number.
General manager Mike Rizzo said the team spoke to Turner about an extension last spring, and Turner has said he would listen to overtures, per Todd Dybas of NBC Sports Washington. That said, he also explained he has an idea of his own worth and will not rush to make a decision.
The other element to a possible Turner extension is Max Scherzer's impending free agency at the end of the 2021 season. Might a potential reunion with Scherzer impact Turner's future, or would that further incentivize Washington to get a deal done now instead of waiting another year?
Washington lacks the kind of deep farm system needed to pump out consistent talent at the big league level, which is why it might be all the more imperative to get a Turner extension done as the organization hopes to make another title push while also preparing for the future.
6. Trevor Story
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Colorado Rockies shortstop Trevor Story could very well forego free agency and sign an extension, regardless of which team he plays for next season.
He will hit the open market in 2022, barring an extension. The 28-year-old has an .877 career OPS in five years with the Rockies, and this past season led the National League in steals (15) and triples (four) while also clubbing 11 homers with an .874 OPS. Plus, he has proved himself an exceptionally gifted defensive shortstop, ranking fourth at the position in outs above average (OAA) in 2019.
Nick Groke and Eno Sarris of The Athletic reported the shortstop "seems to be available in trade" as Colorado looks for ways to cut costs. He could be an attractive asset, especially if a given team feels it can extend him.
Then again, an extension with the Rockies is every bit as possible.
Groke and Sarris reported the team is still attempting to shop Nolan Arenado, and those efforts could become more aggressive in the coming months. Arenado can opt out of his deal after 2021, and the Rockies would almost certainly prefer to at least get some young talent rather than watching him walk, even if it means paying down a good chunk of his salary.
If the Rockies do indeed move Arenado, then they would then be without a franchise building block after 2021 if Story were to leave in free agency. Thus, it would make sense for them to do what they can to extend him.
Story does not seem like a piece primed to move at the deadline. Either a rival club will try to acquire and extend him now, or the Rockies will enter into negotiations if (or when) they trade Arenado.
5. Javier Baez
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The Chicago Cubs are cutting costs this winter.
Although president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said the Yu Darvish trade was not financially motivated, you do not gamble on four high-risk, high-reward prospects and pay down some of your star's deal—albeit a marginal $3 million—without there being some sort of fiscal reasoning.
The Cubs do indeed appear intent on diving below the competitive balance tax threshold while continuing to look for ways to add young talent to the pipeline. But is also possible they are clearing money for an extension with at least one of their core players, with Baez serving as a likely candidate.
Baez had a woeful 2020, ranking dead last in OBP among qualified hitters while also ranking third to last in weighted runs created plus (wRC+).
That said, this is the same guy who was runner-up for the NL MVP in 2018 and was the NL All-Star team's starting shortstop in 2019, as well. Additionally, Baez is one of the best defenders in the game. He led all infielders and was second overall in OAA in 2019 before winning a Gold Glove in 2020.
Finally, Baez has one of the most magnetic personalities in baseball. El Mago still had the eighth-most-popular jersey in 2020 despite the down year, and his youthful spirit has made him a fan favorite in Chicago.
Baez and the Cubs had talks last spring before the transaction freeze took place, and those talks might restart in the next few months.
Even if the Cubs are entering a new era, it seems unlikely Hoyer would allow all of Baez, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo to reach free agency. Baez's age (28) and tools, not to mention his position, could make him the priority out of the trio.
4. Carlos Correa
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Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa popped up in trade chatter back in November, though Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the Astros were not engaged in "active conversations" on Correa.
Houston general manager James Click said the team would be open to exploring a number of avenues during an interview in December, but he also added "having Carlos Correa at shortstop makes it a lot easier to win," per Mark Berman of Fox 26.
The Astros seem far more likely to extend Correa than to trade him. Houston is presumably on the verge of losing George Springer in free agency. There are no guarantees they can re-sign Michael Brantley. To lose Correa, a 26-year-old yet to really reach his prime, would be a gut punch, especially considering the scarcity of impact prospects in the team's system.
Correa's slugging percentage fell all the way to .383 in 2020, and he hit just five homers during the regular season. However, the 2012 No. 1 overall pick clubbed six homers and drove in 17 runs over the course of 13 playoff games, which is a snapshot of his immense potential.
Injuries have played a frustrating role in Correa's development, but he still has an .833 career OPS with the ability to hit for average and power and tremendous talent on the defensive end.
Perhaps the durability concerns will serve as something of a red flag for the Astros. However, Houston has a weak farm and is losing star talent left and right. Extending Correa would elongate the team's window of contention and provide clarity going forward.
Plus, the Astros likely would have tried harder to re-sign Springer were they not acutely aware of Correa's looming free agency.
3. Fernando Tatis Jr.
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The San Diego Padres have been baseball's most active team in recent weeks, making blockbuster deals for Blake Snell and Yu Darvish in consecutive days.
Next up is an extension for superstar shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr.
Padres general manager A.J. Preller said during a recent appearance on SiriusXM's MLB Network Radio that the team is hoping to finalize an extension with Tatis before the start of the season. It only makes sense given the shortstop's rapid ascension as a global superstar.
The 22-year-old has taken baseball by storm with his sheer passion and exciting brand of play. Tatis ranked fourth in fWAR in 2020, mashing 17 homers and swiping 11 bags to go with a .937 OPS. He (along with Nolan Arenado) also led all infielders in OAA.
Moreover, Tatis is a marketing sensation. He had the fourth-highest-selling jersey in baseball, and he also has a BOLT24 commercial that makes direct reference to the conversation he started after his infamous 3-0 grand slam against the Texas Rangers in August.
For those wondering whether Tatis would prefer to wait until free agency before signing an extension, ask yourselves these questions: Don't younger players typically want guaranteed money as soon as possible (yes), and haven't the Padres done enough to show their young shortstop they will be actively competing for a World Series for years to come (also yes)?
During an offseason in which so many general managers have rested on their laurels, Preller has done the opposite. He has recognized the Padres have an opportunity to seize the moment and shove the window wide open.
Now, Preller should turn his focus to Tatis. Given how successful he has been leveraging aggressiveness to make deals, and considering the foundation he has created in San Diego, it seems likely the two sides can reach an accord before Opening Day.
2. Francisco Lindor
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Francisco Lindor will almost certainly be traded this winter. When he is, he will be extended.
For all the timidity regarding the financial state of the game and the skepticism about Lindor's future, it is highly improbable there will be much drama. Pandemic or not, teams will pay a large price for star players.
The Boston Red Sox traded Mookie Betts because they deemed it unlikely they could extend or re-sign him with a number of big contracts already on the payroll. Naturally, the Los Angeles Dodgers gave him a massive extension almost as soon as they acquired him.
It would hardly be a surprise to see the same scenario play out with Lindor.
Much as Betts is a definitive star in right field, so too is Lindor at shortstop. The 27-year-old is a switch-hitter who can hit for average and power with equal proficiency from both sides of the batter's box. He is a menace on the bases and is a remarkably good defender up the middle. He has a pair of Gold Gloves and a Platinum Glove and routinely ranks among the leaders in OAA.
Similar to Baez and Tatis, Lindor also boasts a certain charm and flair that makes him a bona fide star. He is a sensation in Puerto Rico and will undoubtedly bring added global fanfare to his next team.
Just who that team will be remains to be seen. But any club acquiring Lindor will be doing so under the premise he will be sticking around for quite some time.
1. Freddie Freeman
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The reigning NL MVP should be a shoo-in for an extension.
Freddie Freeman has been a staple of the Atlanta Braves franchise for over a decade. He has finished in the top eight or better in the NL MVP voting on five different occasions, including his 2020 triumph. He has also won a Gold Glove and multiple Silver Slugger Awards. Perhaps most interestingly, he only just now seems to be hitting the pinnacle of his career.
The veteran first baseman set career-high marks in home runs (38) and RBI (121) in 2019. He followed by hitting .341 with 13 homers, 53 RBI and a 1.102 OPS this past season, leading baseball in runs scored (51) and doubles (23). Even more impressively, his production came after a scary bout with COVID-19 that cost him time during summer camp.
Simply put, Freeman is one of the best players of the past 10 years and a seminal leader in Atlanta's young clubhouse. You don't let a guy like that hit the open market.
Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos said back in October that Freeman is "someone we plan on and expect to have as a Brave for a long time," per MLB.com's Mark Bowman. Freeman himself said in 2019 he had no interest in playing anywhere else, per Bowman.
A Freeman extension feels like a formality. There will not be a whole lot of noise about it because Anthopoulos likes to keep things under wraps, but it truly is just a matter of time.
All stats obtained via Baseball Reference, FanGraphs or Baseball Savant, unless otherwise noted.
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