Fantasy Football Mailbag: Top Players and Keeper Questions for 2021
It's the end of the line.
There are still a few fantasy football leagues that play their championship games in Week 17, but in the overwhelming majority of leagues, last week brought with it the end of the season. A champion has been crowned, and now there's nothing to do but turn off computers and either wait for next summer or get really wild and go outside or something.
But fear not, fantasy enthusiast. You don't have to take such drastic steps.
Much like the NFL, fantasy football has become a year-round pastime for many. Folks in dynasty leagues will move on to scouting the rookie class of 2021. Managers in keeper leagues have to decide which players from this year's roster to carry over into next year. And even those in redraft formats can start examining the season that was to see what lessons can be learned.
That's what we're going to do here with the final fantasy football start/sit column of 2020.
As was the case every week this season, I've gone over user questions on the Bleacher Report app and selected some to answer here. But rather than focus on the upcoming week's games, this week's slate looks ahead to 2021.
Let's get started with a question about the big dogs next year at fantasy football's most important position.
The Fantastic Five
1 of 10
Might as well start this forward-looking mailbag off with the 800-pound gorilla of fantasy questions. The query that will dominate the landscape as we turn the calendar to 2021.
Who are the top running backs for next season.
Now, there's one massive caveat that comes with this question: A lot can change between now and next summer, so this list is written much more in pencil than in pen.
With that said, here goes—in no particular order.
The leading candidate to be the No. 1 pick as things stand today is probably Dalvin Cook of the Minnesota Vikings. Cook has racked up 1,557 rushing yards this season, adding 44 catches and scoring 17 total touchdowns.
The top-scoring PPR running back in 2020 isn't Cook, however. After exploding for six rushing touchdowns on Christmas Day, that title belongs to Alvin Kamara of the New Orleans Saints. However, questions about Drew Brees' future in the Big Easy are enough to bump Kamara below Cook.
He's not much of a factor in the passing game, but as he closes in on his second straight rushing title, you have to include Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans on this list. He leads the league in both carries (344) and rushing yards (1,777) and ranks third in PPR points.
His 2020 season was a hot mess, but Christian McCaffrey of the Carolina Panthers has to be included here. The reason is simple: upside. McCaffrey wasn't just the No. 1 running back in fantasy in 2019—he was the top back by over 150 fantasy points.
For reals.
There are a handful of backs vying for the fifth spot, including guys like Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants, Ezekiel Elliott of the Dallas Cowboys and Aaron Jones of the Green Bay Packers. Were Jones' future in Green Bay more certain, he'd be the call after back-to-back top-five seasons. But he's set to hit free agency this spring.
If he stays in Titletown, Jones rounds out the top five. If not, Barkley's sky-high ceiling is enough to overcome reservations about his ACL tear.
At any rate, that fifth overall pick looks to be the sweet spot for the first wide receiver selected in 2021.
The Call: Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley
Keeper Question, Chapter 1
2 of 10
It's not surprising that Saquon Barkley is a hot topic as we look forward to the 2021 season. After all, the Giants running back was the second overall pick in most fantasy drafts last summer before suffering a season-ending ACL tear in Week 2.
Barkley's injury history is absolutely a valid concern. But the No. 1 fantasy running back in 2018 also has a ceiling that these other backs just can't match, with two top-10 PPR finishes in three seasons. Given how early in the season Barkley went down, he should be good to go for the 2021 opener, and he needs to be one of the two keepers here.
Joe Mixon of the Cincinnati Bengals is out. It's not a knock on the four-year veteran, who like Barkley lost a major portion of the 2020 season to injury. It's just that that injury risk comes with a fantasy ceiling (based on his two healthy seasons) that falls in low-end fantasy RB1 territory. Mixon's best case falls somewhere just inside the top 10, and that (relatively) limited upside just isn't worth the risk.
It's a similar story with Miles Sanders of the Philadelphia Eagles. There's some upside, sure, but Sanders missed time this year, and the Eagles could be headed into an offseason of major changes.
That leaves David Montgomery of the Chicago Bears, who opened the 2020 season as the lowest ranked of these backs. But Montgomery has tallied the first 1,000-yard season of his career, ranks sixth in PPR points among backs, and he went on an absolute tear to close out the season—first in points among backs from Week 12 on.
A Barkley/Montgomery duo in the backfield is a solid foundation for a fantasy team.
The Call: Saquon Barkley, David Montgomery
Way Too Early Top-10 Wide Receivers
3 of 10
This is a loaded question. By the time we move through free agency and the 2021 NFL draft, this list could get a major shakeup.
That said, here's an early stab at the top 10 wideouts of 2021—in no particular order.
Davante Adams of the Green Bay Packers is the leading candidate to be the No. 1 receiver in 2021—he leads all wideouts in fantasy points and has a touchdown in all but three of the 13 games in which he's played.
Tyreek Hill of the Kansas Chiefs and his 17 total touchdowns are absolutely near the top of this list (plus, there's the whole Patrick Mahomes thing). Both Stefon Diggs of the Buffalo Bills and DeAndre Hopkins of the Arizona Cardinals are also easy calls after huge first seasons with new teams in 2020.
DK Metcalf of the Seattle Seahawks gets a spot after emerging as arguably the most dangerous vertical threat in the game. Julio Jones of the Atlanta Falcons has been a fixture in the top 10 for years, but the torch has been passed from Jones to teammate Calvin Ridley.
Keenan Allen of the Los Angeles Chargers is third in the NFL in targets after 16 weeks and should again be one of the most targeted pass-catchers in the game next year. The same goes for Allen Robinson of the Chicago Bears, who has a lower ceiling than many of the receivers but a high floor borne of workload and consistency.
Mike Evans of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers needs 40 yards for his seventh straight 1,000-yard campaign and set a new career best with 13 touchdown grabs. He's in.
We haven't yet mentioned the talented wide receiver duo of Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson in Minnesota, both of whom cracked the top 10 in 2020. The edge goes to Jefferson based on upside and better yardage numbers (counting on Thielen to score 14 touchdowns is asking for trouble), but both Minny wideouts won't be on the board long next summer.
If you're wondering where Michael Thomas of the Saints fits in here, he's barely outside the top 10. He could easily crack the top five if things break the right way next year, but with Drew Brees' future in doubt and Thomas coming off an injury-marred season, he misses the cut for now.
The Call: Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, DeAndre Hopkins, Stefon Diggs, DK Metcalf, Calvin Ridley, Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, Mike Evans, Justin Jefferson
Keeper Question, Chapter 2
4 of 10
At first glance, this would appear to be an easy call. Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill of the Kansas City Chiefs are the gold standard of pitch-catch duos in the NFL. Mahomes is the No. 3 fantasy quarterback this season, while Hill trails only Davante Adams of the Packers among wide receivers.
And yet, one of the two has to be thrown back.
It's a numbers game. In a 12-team standard scoring league, the majority of keepers are going to be running backs. The incoming rookies will help, but if you go into the draft without at least one back on the roster, you're starting things off in a hole.
Both of these young running backs picked up their play over the second half of the season. Both also have considerable talent and fantasy upside. But JK Dobbins of the Baltimore Ravens faces more competition for touches than Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts, who has a shot at a 1,000-yard rookie season on the ground. Taylor has been on fire of late—so much so that the former Wisconsin standout has cracked the top 10 for the season.
He gets one spot.
The second is just a matter of depth at their respective positions. As great as Patrick Mahomes is, it's much easier to find production (and value) later in drafts at quarterback than at any other position. Only a couple of signal-callers will be kept in a given year.
There won't be any shortage of talent out there at wide receiver, either, but Tyreek Hill has a real chance at finishing 2021 as the No. 1 player at the position.
The second keeper slot is his.
The Call: Jonathan Taylor, Tyreek Hill
Oh Brother
5 of 10
Ah. There's nothing quite like the love between brothers.
Kidding aside, it's awfully early to be predicting breakout players. To say that situations will change substantially between now and draft season is an understatement.
But there are some players who bear monitoring over the offseason as rebound and/or breakout candidates in 2020.
At quarterback, the drama unfolding in Philadelphia will be one of the biggest offseason storylines. If the Eagles do decide to turn over the team to Jalen Hurts, his dual-threat potential could make him a great value pick as a low-end starter. Over the final three weeks of the 2020 season, Hurts ranked third in points among signal-callers.
At running back, Ezekiel Elliott of the Dallas Cowboys was a massive disappointment in the eyes of most fantasy managers in 2020. But even in that "down" year, Elliott is still seventh in PPR points. He could easily offer top-five upside available outside the top 10 next year.
Fantasy managers tend to hold grudges.
At wide receiver, many fantasy managers have all but forgotten about Courtland Sutton of the Denver Broncos, who played in just one game this season before tearing his ACL. But Sutton cracked the top 20 fantasy receivers and topped 1,100 yards the year before. Provided his rehab goes well, Sutton has the makings of a great source of cheap production at wideout.
We'll stay in Denver for a tight end. Noah Fant of the Broncos has quietly put together a top-10 season in 2020 in terms of fantasy points per game. If the Broncos can just get some improved play under center, the athletic youngster has top-five potential.
The Call: Jalen Hurts, Ezekiel Elliott, Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant
Keeper Question, Chapter 3
6 of 10
In keeper leagues where lost picks are tied to what round the keeper was drafted in, when a player was taken can be just as important as who that player is.
That's the case here—along with the added caveat that only one player at each position can be kept.
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is out. Jackson's production was down substantially in 2020 relative to his MVP campaign the year before. Finding another low-end QB1 in the draft won't be difficult.
As was stated earlier, one of the keepers really needs to be a running back—odds are every team will keep one. After an injury-marred 2020, Joe Mixon of the Cincinnati Bengals is out. Nick Chubb of the Cleveland Browns is a fantastic running back, but he shares backfield touches with Kareem Hunt and carries a first-round price tag.
The play here is the biggest surprise of 2020 in the backfield—James Robinson of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Even after an injury cut Robinson's season short, the undrafted rookie was a top-five PPR option. He's almost certain to be a big part of a Jags offense in 2021 that will likely be led by Trevor Lawrence.
That leaves one spot and three wide receivers. Deebo Samuel of the San Francisco 49ers could be an excellent value with a Round 8 asking price, but he's also the riskiest play of the trio. Julio Jones of the Atlanta Falcons was once arguably the top receiver in fantasy, but he'll be 32 when the 2021 season starts and just had his worst yardage season since 2013.
Allen Robinson of the Bears isn't an especially sexy option. But he has topped 1,100 receiving yards each of the past two seasons despite catching wormburners from bad quarterbacks in Chicago.
He's a steady, low-end WR1—and the second keeper from this group.
The Call: James Robinson, Allen Robinson
The Kelce Konundrum
7 of 10
There was a time when I didn't believe that any tight end or quarterback was worth a first-round pick in fantasy leagues. The "edge" that an elite option at those positions gave you just wasn't worth the hole it left at running back or wide receiver.
That viewpoint has changed.
Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs was the top tight end in fantasy football in 2020. In fact, from a yardage perspective, no tight end has ever had a season like Kelce's 1,416 yards.
And that's in 15 games.
Kelce was the No. 1 fantasy option by a massive margin over Darren Waller of the Las Vegas Raiders—he outscored Waller by almost 60 PPR points and almost four points per game. Kelce had twice as many PPR points per game as Hunter Henry of the Los Angeles Chargers, who finished the season eighth at the position.
There's actually a wider gap between Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill at wide receiver in points per game. But no one will deny that there's more depth at that position. At tight end, there are three "big guns" (Kelce, Waller and George Kittle of the 49ers) and then a massive drop-off.
There's admittedly risk involved with taking Kelce in Round 1; the better play if picking at the 10-12 spots is to go running back or wide receiver and try to nab Kelce on the turn.
But if I'm picking last in the round, one of my first two picks is probably going to be Kelce, and taking him a pick or two before that is a valid strategy.
The Call: Yes
Keeper Question, Chapter 4
8 of 10
This is an interesting set of keeper options—especially the third and final spot.
We can cut it down to four players for three spots relatively quickly. Cam Akers of the Los Angeles Rams showed promise as a rookie and was one of my favorite prospects at the position in the class of 2020. But Darrell Henderson Jr. isn't going away in Los Angeles, and the Rams will likely either bring back Malcolm Brown or add more depth at the position in the 2021 draft.
He's the low man here.
James Robinson of the Jaguars is an obvious "keep." The Jaguars hit the jackpot with the undrafted rookie, who would have broken the single-season rushing record for a first-year undrafted free agent had an ankle injury not cut his campaign short. He'll enter 2021 as a low-end RB1 and should benefit from the arrival of Trevor Lawrence in J-Ville.
The other rookie on this list sticks, too. Justin Jefferson of the Vikings had a ridiculously productive final season at LSU and then didn't miss a beat in the pros. Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is going to be named Offensive Rookie of the Year, but with a 79/1,267/7 line (and top-10 fantasy finish), Jefferson isn't far behind.
That leaves one slot and two players—Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen and Chicago running back David Montgomery. And once again, it comes down to a numbers game. At least 20 running backs are going to be kept in this league—likely more. As great as Allen has been for the Bills (and fantasy managers) in 2020, he'd be one of only a handful of quarterbacks who weren't tossed back into the draft pool.
If head coach Matt Nagy and quarterback Mitchell Trubisky keep their jobs in 2021, they will have Montgomery to thank for it. With top-five PPR production over the second half of the season, Montgomery appears to have had his "light bulb" moment.
And he's almost certainly going to be the focal point of the Bears offense next season.
Keep the backs and the wideout. Allen may well be available to bring back early in the draft.
The Call: James Robinson, Justin Jefferson, David Montgomery
The Future Under Center
9 of 10
It was quite the year for rookie quarterbacks. And at least one first-year signal-caller will all but certainly be drafted as a fantasy starter next year—Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers, who broke the NFL record for touchdown passes by a rookie.
Things are less certain with Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals and Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins.
Actually, with Tagovailoa, there is a fair level of certainty. He's not a weekly starter in 12-team fantasy leagues. Not yet. The southpaw from Alabama has a degree of upside, in part because of his athleticism. But Tagovailoa had more starts during the fantasy season with fewer than 100 passing yards (three) than those with over 300 yards (one). He also didn't throw more than two touchdown passes in a game. The Miami offense is relatively conservative. And from Week 8 on, Tagovailoa was 28th in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks.
Burrow's value in 2021, however, is much less clear. From his first game, Burrow gave fantasy managers something to cheer about—in half of his 10 starts, Burrow cleared 300 passing yards. He had a pair of three-touchdown outings. Over the first half of the 2020 season, Burrow was seventh in fantasy points among quarterbacks.
Burrow is immensely talented, the Bengals have quite a bit of skill-position talent, and improving the offensive line will no doubt be a priority in the offseason.
But Burrow also didn't tear up his knee until the second half of November. It's possible he could be ready to go for training camp next summer, but any sort of setback in his recovery could threaten his availability for Week 1.
That risk bumps him outside the top 12 in drafts, although if he is able to get out there from the get-go, a low-end QB1 finish in Year 2 isn't out of the question.
The Call: No for Tua Tagovailoa, No for Joe Burrow
The Best Keeper Problem EVER
10 of 10
First off, holy crap!
I mean, really?
The top three running backs in 2020? You have them all?
That's ridiculous. I'd hope that you either won the championship or came close.
As great as having that trio is, losing your first two picks is a stiff price to pay for keeping all three guys. Sure, your backfield (and flex spot—assuming there is one) will be stacked. But wide receiver is probably going to be a weakness unless you hit on some value picks late.
So in a vacuum, I agree that moving a back is probably the wiser course of action. Since you mentioned dealing Henry, I'm also going to assume this is a PPR league, and if that's the case, Henry's lack of passing-game usage makes him the No. 3 back of these options.
However, there are a couple of considerations here. The first is a common problem in keeper leagues: The other managers know you want to move a back to avoid the draft penalty, and that's going to lower what those managers are willing to offer as compensation.
There's also the fact that those other managers likely also view Henry as the least valuable of these players. The idea of trading Cook or Kamara may seem ludicrous at first, but if you can get a significantly better return than in a Henry trade, it's worth considering.
What's better? Three great backs, Cook, Kamara and one high-end receiver or Henry, Kamara a high-end wide receiver and an elite tight end?
Be prepared to trade whoever will get you the best deal—within reason. I would sooner hold on to all three backs and not pick until the third round than sell one for 30 cents on the dollar.
I'm petty. Don't judge me.
The Call: Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara
Fantasy scoring data courtesy of FFToday. Fantasy points per game against data courtesy of My Fantasy League.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year.
.jpg?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Day 2 Trade Rumors Already Flying 👀")
.jpg?w=600 "Moment Eagles Picked Lemon 😲")
.jpg?w=600 "49ers React to Simpson Pick 🤭")
