Bleacher Report Expert Predictions for the College Football Playoff
There are many, many reasons to be looking forward to Jan. 1, 2021, and getting to watch two College Football Playoff showdowns—No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame; No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Ohio State—is one of them.
Here's hoping at least one of the games will be entertaining, because that certainly hasn't been a guarantee throughout the six-year history of this playoff format.
Eight of the previous 12 CFP semifinal games were decided by at least 17 points, and the No. 2 vs. No. 3 game has been especially boom or bust. Four times the No. 2 seed won by 27 or more, but the No. 3 seed emerged victorious from an instant classic the other two times.
Into which of those buckets (if either) will the Clemson-Ohio State game fall?
And does Notre Dame have any hope of avoiding the fate that has befallen so many of Alabama's opponents—both this year and throughout CFP history?
We've asked our college football experts (David Kenyon, Adam Kramer, Kerry Miller, Joel Reuter and Brad Shepard) to answer those questions and several others in advance of the season's penultimate pair of games.
Which Heisman Finalist Has the Best Performance in a National Semifinal?
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Note: The three possible answers here are Mac Jones, Trevor Lawrence or DeVonta Smith.
Brad Shepard
If Mac Jones is throwing to DeVonta Smith, that would normally mean the quarterback has better stats than the receiver. That's why we always see quarterbacks in the Heisman conversation, but rarely receivers.
However, much of the reason Jones has been so successful this year is because of Smith's dominance. Smith has been the best player in college football this season, and he's the best wide receiver in college football in two decades. That's why he's going to win the Heisman.
Look for him to impact the game in a variety of ways. Though the Irish will be the best defense he has faced this season, they won't have an answer for him. Smith will wind up with at least eight receptions for more than 150 yards and a couple of touchdowns.
Kerry Miller
This is such a tough call, because I expect all three to shine in victory. But I'm going to go with Trevor Lawrence against Ohio State.
The Buckeyes have struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks over the past few seasons, and Lawrence took full advantage of that Achilles' heel in last year's College Football Playoff, rumbling for 107 yards and a rushing touchdown against Ohio State. And he hasn't been shy about taking matters into his own hands (feet?) as of late with 21 carries for 131 yards and three touchdowns in his last two games.
And I have a little more faith in Notre Dame's secondary than I have in Ohio State's. Not only did Indiana's Michael Penix Jr. rip the Buckeyes to shreds, but Penn State's Sean Clifford also had three passing touchdowns against them. That's twice in just six games that Ohio State allowed at least three touchdowns through the air. Notre Dame's defense allowed two or fewer passing touchdowns in all 11 games played.
Again, I do expect Mac Jones and DeVonta Smith to have a nice day. I just don't see this being a repeat of the SEC championship, in which Jones threw for 418 yards and five touchdowns.
Which Under-the-Radar Player Will Have the Most Impressive Performance?
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Adam Kramer
It's easy to get overlooked in Alabama's offense, which had three players in the top five of the Heisman vote. But there is one player that I am really excited about for the future—and possibly the immediate future against Notre Dame.
Tight end Jahleel Billingsley could ultimately wind up being the next great tight end in the SEC. The sophomore came on strong late in the year after not seeing much time until late November.
When he did get the ball, he flashed immense potential. He caught touchdowns in back-to-back games against Auburn and LSU, and I think he'll get more chances against the Irish. With so much attention to be placed on DeVonta Smith and stopping the big play—and understandably so—Billingsley could find himself in a nice spot to shine.
And for the future? This guy feels like he might be special. I'm not saying he's the next Kyle Pitts, but he has the body to be a complete mismatch and to be used in similar ways in this game and beyond.
I wouldn't be shocked to see his star power grow during/after these semifinals.
Kerry Miller
He probably doesn't count as an under-the-radar player anymore after the ridiculous one-handed grab he made in the ACC championship, but I'm still going with Clemson wide receiver E.J. Williams.
The true freshman set career highs in both receptions (four) and yards (80) in that win over Notre Dame, and I suspect that may have just been the start of his year-end breakout. Ohio State will presumably put Shaun Wade on Amari Rodgers in hopes of neutralizing the Tigers' top pass-catching threat, and that means more opportunities for the secondary and tertiary options in Clemson's passing attack.
In last year's Fiesta Bowl, running back Travis Etienne had more than twice as many receiving yards as any other Tiger, and even he didn't have as many receiving yards (98) as Trevor Lawrence had rushing yards (107). Maybe Clemson takes a similar approach to navigating this Buckeyes secondary.
But I think this is going to be more like Clemson's 2018 CFP semifinal, when true freshman Justyn Ross exploded for 148 yards and two touchdowns. If Ohio State isn't ready for Williams, he could replicate those numbers.
Which Running Back Racks Up the Most Yards in the Semifinals?
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Brad Shepard
There are so many great running backs in these two games, but I'm going with the wild card—Ohio State's Trey Sermon.
Clemson is going to want to blitz Justin Fields often to keep him and his injured thumb uncomfortable in the pocket. And the Buckeyes should counter by leaning heavily on the run.
Against Northwestern's vaunted defense, Sermon had a game for the ages, rushing for 331 yards. And in last year's CFP semifinal, J.K. Dobbins torched the Tigers for 174 rushing yards.
The Tigers still won that game, and I believe something similar happens again. Sermon is going to rack up 140 yards and a couple of scores, which will be enough to (barely) edge Travis Etienne and Najee Harris as the correct answer.
Kerry Miller
All four of these teams have a fantastic No. 1 option in the backfield.
Notre Dame's Kyren Williams averaged 122.1 yards from scrimmage per game. Clemson's Travis Etienne was a little bit better at 127.8. Alabama's Najee Harris had them both beat at 143.5—and almost scored more touchdowns (27) than Williams and Etienne combined (28). And then Ohio State's Trey Sermon is hotter than the sun, averaging better than 11 yards per carry in each of his last two games.
For the first time since 2016, I don't have the luxury of simply picking the running back facing Oklahoma's front seven. All four of these defenses rank in the top 15 nationally in rushing yards allowed per game.
Got to go with Harris, though. He just had 245 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns in the SEC championship and has been the most unstoppable running back in the country this season. It's preposterous that he wasn't even named a finalist for the Heisman, and he'll let out a little bit of frustration for that snub with a big day against a Notre Dame defense that has allowed at least 200 rushing yards in back-to-back contests.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Will There Be Any Touchdowns Scored on Defense or Special Teams?
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David Kenyon
Generally speaking, non-offensive touchdowns are random; unpredictable. That's the foundation of why I'm saying there will not be any. However, it's a fun conversation to have because the trend of one non-offensive score per year in the CFP semifinals is fascinating.
If it does happen, the Sugar Bowl between Clemson and Ohio State feels most likely.
While neither team is particularly explosive on special teams, both defenses are averaging two-plus takeaways per game. Trevor Lawrence rarely makes mistakes, but his lapses are often from seemingly predetermined reads. During the ACC Championship Game, he threw directly at a linebacker who deflected the pass and created a turnover. Justin Fields hasn't lost any fumbles this season, but ball security was an issue last year, and Clemson has forced 12 fumbles in 11 games.
Kerry Miller
Historically speaking, the odds say yes. There weren't any touchdowns by the defense or special teams in last year's College Football Playoff, but six of the 12 CFP semifinals have had one such scoring play.
It won't be on a kickoff, though. None of the four teams has allowed a single kickoff return of 40 or more yards this season, and Clemson (three) is the only one with at least one kickoff return of 40 or more yards.
It might happen on a punt. Ohio State did allow a punt return for a touchdown against Rutgers, and Clemson's Amari Rodgers is more than elusive enough to turn a seam into six points. And while Notre Dame has only allowed 24 total punt-return yards this season, DeVonta Smith is an ever-present danger with the ball in his hands.
But it will most likely be a back-breaking play by one of these defenses. The four semifinalists had a combined total of 11 defensive touchdowns this season. None of these teams turns the ball over very often, so both games should be relatively clean. My guess is a grand total of three turnovers between the two games, but one of them gets taken to the house—probably by Alabama.
Will Either CFP Semifinal Reach 70 Total Points?
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Joel Reuter
In the six-year history of the College Football Playoff, five of the 12 semifinal games have seen at least 70 total points. That includes one game each of the last three seasons, with LSU blowing out Oklahoma by a 63-28 score a year ago.
Is the gap between Alabama and Notre Dame that wide?
Probably not, but it doesn't need to be for the two teams to put a ton of points on the board.
The Fighting Irish allowed 40 and 34 points in their two games against Clemson this season, and there's little debate that the Crimson Tide have a superior offensive attack when Mac Jones, Najee Harris and DeVonta Smith are clicking on all cylinders.
That said, Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book has been playing extremely well down the stretch and should have a bit more help after the running game was silenced by Clemson's dominant front seven in the ACC title game.
I don't expect it to be a close game, but I do expect there to be plenty of scoring. Let's say: Alabama 49, Notre Dame 27.
As for the Ohio State and Clemson matchup, those two teams are more evenly matched. I'll comfortably take the under on that game.
Kerry Miller
Will either game reach 70 points? Almost certainly.
Will both games reach 70 points? Quite possibly.
In the Rose Bowl, it's really just a question of whether Notre Dame can stay within shouting distance of Alabama. The Crimson Tide have scored at least 35 points in 24 consecutive games and have reached 41 points in each of their last 10 contests. They put up at least 52 points in more than half of their games this season. Notre Dame has a good defense, but there's simply no shutting down this freight train.
The Fighting Irish offense looked awful in the ACC championship, but I expect them to bounce back at least a little bit against an Alabama defense that had some occasional, massive letdowns this season. It'll be close to that 70-point cutline, but I can definitely see this being a 45-27 type of ballgame.
The Sugar Bowl seems much more likely to be a shootout. Clemson averages 44.9 points per game, and Ohio State isn't far behind at 42.5. And I don't think either of these defenses is as good this year as it was last year—though Clemson has buckled down nicely since that 47-40 loss to Notre Dame in early November. This game has 40-something to 30-something written all over it, and that's at least 70 points.
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame: Who You Got Winning the Rose Bowl?
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Adam Kramer
I wish I had some contrarian pick and an opinion that would cause the comments to erupt in anger. I wish I could tell you that Notre Dame, fresh off a really disappointing and thorough loss, is going to bounce back with a massive upset that we'll be talking about for years to come.
But I can't, and I won't. I picked Notre Dame over Alabama in the national championship the last time these two teams faced, and I'm still licking my wounds eight years after that demolition. That's not why I am picking the Crimson Tide, of course, but the talent gap since that game, despite Notre Dame's best efforts, still exists.
Florida showcased the blueprint. The Alabama defense can still be beat. The problem? I don't think Notre Dame has the offense to keep up. And while I really do like many pieces on the Irish defense, there just isn't enough in place for me to really consider picking the upset.
This Alabama offense is special. Historic, even. It can beat you in so many ways, and I expect it to beat Notre Dame in many ways.
Sorry to be boring. Just keeping it real, as always.
Kerry Miller
I sincerely hope it's at least an entertaining affair, but Alabama is going to win.
Chunk-gain offenses capable of taking the top off a defense have had success against Alabama. But with all due respect to Ian Book, Notre Dame doesn't have one of those offenses.
The Fighting Irish need to establish the run to set up the pass, and it has been two months since anyone was able to get anything going on the ground against the Crimson Tide. Their last six opponents have averaged just 74.7 rushing yards per game at a meager clip of 2.4 yards per carry. They have only allowed one rush of more than 20 yards in their last seven games.
Unless Kyren Williams is able to find holes in this defense that simply haven't existed lately, Notre Dame will need to lean heavily on Book's arm. Maybe he'll be up to the task, but his season highs are 312 passing yards and three touchdowns. If that's all he's able to muster in this one, we may be headed for a carbon copy of Alabama's 41-24 victory over Georgia from earlier this season. Or, worse, an exact replica of Alabama's 42-14 win over Notre Dame in the next-to-last BCS National Championship Game.
No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Ohio State: Who You Got Winning the Sugar Bowl?
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Joel Reuter
Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney gave Ohio State some next-level bulletin board material when he put the Buckeyes at No. 11 on his ballot for the final coaches poll.
He later defended that decision by pointing to the fact that Ohio State would only need to play eight games to get to win a title, while others, like his Tigers, would need to play 13 games. However, the damage was already done.
Anything short of a Tigers blowout is going to be a bad look for Swinney, and this Ohio State team is not 6-0 by accident.
Justin Fields had his worst game of the season against Northwestern in the Big Ten championship, completing just 12 of 27 pass attempts for 114 yards and two interceptions. After throwing just three total interceptions all of last season and none through his first three games this year, he has five in his last three games and now he's also dealing with a sprained thumb.
The Clemson run defense is too good for the Buckeyes to hope for anything close to another 29-carry, 331-yard performance from Trey Sermon, and once they fall behind, heaping the pressure onto Fields' shoulders is going to be a recipe for disaster.
Final score: Clemson 35, Ohio State 24
Kerry Miller
I've gone back and forth on this game about eight dozen times throughout the course of an entire season with this projected semifinal pairing, but I always end up settling on Clemson advancing to the national championship.
Justin Fields fell out of the Heisman conversation in a hurry with his three-interception game against Indiana, but there's no question this is an awesome quarterback showdown—provided the sprained thumb doesn't affect him as badly as it did in the Big Ten championship. Prior to that dud, Fields was averaging 3.0 passing touchdowns and 1.0 rushing touchdowns per game.
Even if we assume Fields is at full health, though, I've got to go with the red-hot Tigers, who have won three consecutive games by at least 24 points.
In every game this season, there has been a prolonged stretch in which Clemson drained the life out of its opponent. Even in the loss to Notre Dame, the Tigers went on a 20-3 run while completely dominating the third quarter. Save for stomping a mud hole through Michigan State, Ohio State hasn't really found that gear this season, and I don't imagine it'll do so against Clemson.
Trevor Lawrence and Co. take advantage of a mediocre-by-their-standards Buckeyes defense in a 45-34 victory.
Which Playoff Team(s) Will Be Back in Next Year's Final Four?
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David Kenyon
Alabama isn't a foregone conclusion, given what the Crimson Tide will need to replace offensively in 2021. Nevertheless, they have 5-star Bryce Young waiting to replace Mac Jones. My super-early guess is Alabama doesn't go undefeated, but it does win the SEC and reaches the CFP.
I'm most confident in Clemson, which returns a bunch of talent on a defense that is loaded with contributing freshmen and sophomores. And although Trevor Lawrence will depart for the NFL, Clemson has D.J. Uiagalelei—who accounted for 808 yards and six touchdowns in two starts—ready to take over.
Ohio State is undoubtedly the class of the Big Ten, and an ever-increasing talent gap suggests that will continue. The concern for Ohio State, relatively speaking, is the succession plan after Justin Fields presumably leaves is less clear. Along with 2021 signee Kyle McCord, freshmen CJ Stroud and Jack Miller have zero career pass attempts. Settle the QB situation, though, and the Buckeyes are in good shape.
The conversation with Notre Dame is all about the seniors who are eligible to return. Ian Book is presumably leaving (he accepted a Senior Bowl invitation in mid-November), but what about the receivers? Offensive line? The many key defenders? If most of them leave (as anticipated), the Irish will likely fall short of the CFP.
Kerry Miller
Well, Clemson will be back. The Tigers have now made it at least this far in six consecutive seasons, and we saw enough of D.J. Uiagalelei to know they're in great hands for the next two years. Replacing a running back (Travis Etienne) with more than 6,000 career all-purpose yards would be tough for most teams, but Clemson's cup of talent runneth over.
It's probably a safe assumption that Alabama will make it back here next year, too, even though it's a foregone conclusion that Mac Jones, Najee Harris, DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Alex Leatherwood, Dylan Moses, Patrick Surtain II and others will declare for the draft. Nick Saban is no stranger to hitting the reset button and continuing to thrive. If Bryce Young and Trey Sanders start living up to the recruiting hype, Alabama will remain the kings of the SEC.
Ohio State might return for a third straight season, though I expect the Big Ten's East Division will be the most competitive in the nation. And unless Justin Fields shocks the world by returning for another season, the inexperience at quarterback could keep the Buckeyes from repeating as conference champs.
Notre Dame will be replaced by the Big 12 champion, presumably Oklahoma.
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